Rochester By-Election. Consequences of UKIP Win on Tory/Lab
Discussion
Cameron had boasted of throwing the kitchen sink to stop the Conservative defector Mark Reckless getting (direct quote) "his fat arse back onto the green benches" of the Commons." He has been true to his word and himself visited Rochester 5 times, ordered all Tory Ministers and MPs to campaign, sent teams of well paid and respected strategy people and used his deep pockets of Tory cash.
This is their very best effort and still looking a loss. Despite Rochester being only the 271st winnable seat for UKIP (academic analysis on factors such as having low unemployment).
Bookies have started to pay out for a UKIP win ( link), Senior Ministers are briefing the press to admit this too ( link).
Tories are getting desperate and have stooped lower and lower to now minimise the loss, the attack videos and leaflets didn't work, today reveals their latest tactic: Vote UKIP and your house will lose value
So what now?
- More MP's to jump ship? As we are getting close to an election, traditional agreement means that unlikely to be more by-elections i.e. any MP who leaves for UKIP would have several months of campaigning .
- Will Cameron go? Cameron is not trusted for his previously broken 'weasel worded' promises and has failed to meet his 'tens of thousands' pledge. He has a big speech on immigration in a few weeks, what will he be planning?
- Labour to put out a manifesto heavy on Immigration?
This is their very best effort and still looking a loss. Despite Rochester being only the 271st winnable seat for UKIP (academic analysis on factors such as having low unemployment).
Bookies have started to pay out for a UKIP win ( link), Senior Ministers are briefing the press to admit this too ( link).
Tories are getting desperate and have stooped lower and lower to now minimise the loss, the attack videos and leaflets didn't work, today reveals their latest tactic: Vote UKIP and your house will lose value
So what now?
- More MP's to jump ship? As we are getting close to an election, traditional agreement means that unlikely to be more by-elections i.e. any MP who leaves for UKIP would have several months of campaigning .
- Will Cameron go? Cameron is not trusted for his previously broken 'weasel worded' promises and has failed to meet his 'tens of thousands' pledge. He has a big speech on immigration in a few weeks, what will he be planning?
- Labour to put out a manifesto heavy on Immigration?
Well it seems we are giving a couple of billion to the EU because we have managed to f**k over the poor and ill in this country to save a few bob (whilst pi***ng billions down the drain on all sorts of rubbish), so I can't imagine that will help the self serving scum prevent this seat going to UKIP.
Currently we live in interesting times. Rochester does seem to be a UKIP stronghold. Despite Camerom and Milliband throwing all their resources at the by election I think they are both going to face failure. Politicians have become very good at explaining why nothing s their fault and lining every government function with excess staff who can be wasted when the inevitable failures begin to arise.
I predict three essential changes over the next year.
Firstly UKIP will continue with their current popularity probably as long as it takes voters to realise that their promises are unlikely to bring the changes that are needed to address the problems in the UK currently that neither Conservatives not Liberals nor Labour are prepared to even discuss inluding immigration and reality politics where government actually manage the country within an affordable budget whichdoes not require the printing of money ad infinitum as is currently happening.
Secondly Cameron will likely not have a majority at his next GE and will need another coalition. The Liberals will be virtually annihilated and UKIP will very possibly hold the balance. I am doubtful whether Cameron could survive as leader Boris will be in by then and very probably leader of the Conservatives within weeks.
Miiband will fail totally and Labour will have a very poor showing. Milliband will be replaced probably by Andy Norman or possibly Alan Johnson. Certainly Miliband will be gone. He is an out and out liability.
What happens then depends on who manages the country. I do think there will be an opportunity for currently unacceptable subjects such as immigration to be discussed. Where that leads to I have no idea but I think it must come.
I predict three essential changes over the next year.
Firstly UKIP will continue with their current popularity probably as long as it takes voters to realise that their promises are unlikely to bring the changes that are needed to address the problems in the UK currently that neither Conservatives not Liberals nor Labour are prepared to even discuss inluding immigration and reality politics where government actually manage the country within an affordable budget whichdoes not require the printing of money ad infinitum as is currently happening.
Secondly Cameron will likely not have a majority at his next GE and will need another coalition. The Liberals will be virtually annihilated and UKIP will very possibly hold the balance. I am doubtful whether Cameron could survive as leader Boris will be in by then and very probably leader of the Conservatives within weeks.
Miiband will fail totally and Labour will have a very poor showing. Milliband will be replaced probably by Andy Norman or possibly Alan Johnson. Certainly Miliband will be gone. He is an out and out liability.
What happens then depends on who manages the country. I do think there will be an opportunity for currently unacceptable subjects such as immigration to be discussed. Where that leads to I have no idea but I think it must come.
Edited by Steffan on Monday 17th November 18:49
We only need to glance across to some of our E.U. partners to see what could be in store for us, the dismissal of established Parties in favour of the untried variety. Lots of people will say that the Country has been f*cked over by the established two parties during the past 50 years, something I tend to agree with.
If the silent majority decide to vote this time around (about 60% of population?) who knows where we may end up and who governs us.
If the silent majority decide to vote this time around (about 60% of population?) who knows where we may end up and who governs us.
There will be no short term consequences. The leaders of the three main parties have all proved that they really do not understand the nature of the UKIP threat, and are incapable of responding to it. The results at the forthcoming election will force the three main parties to make radical changes. Their leaders will be ditched, and their replacements won't be PPE graduates.
The LibDems will probably get less than 2% on Thursday. They are finished. They have always relied on the "protest vote". At the GE, the protest vote will go to UKIP, and the LibDems will fortunately become a thing of the past.
The only way that the Tories can sort out their future is a BrExit. If we were out of the EU, then the in-fighting could come to an end.
The LibDems will probably get less than 2% on Thursday. They are finished. They have always relied on the "protest vote". At the GE, the protest vote will go to UKIP, and the LibDems will fortunately become a thing of the past.
The only way that the Tories can sort out their future is a BrExit. If we were out of the EU, then the in-fighting could come to an end.
Jasandjules said:
Well it seems we are giving a couple of billion to the EU because we have managed to f**k over the poor and ill in this country to save a few bob (whilst pi***ng billions down the drain on all sorts of rubbish), so I can't imagine that will help the self serving scum prevent this seat going to UKIP.
Yes exactly , don4l said:
The only way that the Tories can sort out their future is a BrExit. If we were out of the EU, then the in-fighting could come to an end.
disagreeThe only way they can sort themselves out is to pull their head out of their arse and listen to people instead of a non-stop chain of media/poltics studies students acting as policy drivers.
If UKIP win, one would hope that Cameron, Clegg and Miliband would start to pay attention to what the electorate are actually saying and adjust their policies and honesty in communication accordingly. People are sick of EU waste and the ineffectiveness of the main parties to reduce it to a reasonable level. People are questioning whether EU policies are lowering their standard of living or their ability to find high paying work close to home. It's not difficult to understand....
I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
GavinPearson said:
If UKIP win, one would hope that Cameron, Clegg and Miliband would start to pay attention to what the electorate are actually saying and adjust their policies and honesty in communication accordingly. People are sick of EU waste and the ineffectiveness of the main parties to reduce it to a reasonable level. People are questioning whether EU policies are lowering their standard of living or their ability to find high paying work close to home. It's not difficult to understand....
I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
I think the Scottish Nats will have more seats than UKIP after the GE. I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
Gargamel said:
GavinPearson said:
If UKIP win, one would hope that Cameron, Clegg and Miliband would start to pay attention to what the electorate are actually saying and adjust their policies and honesty in communication accordingly. People are sick of EU waste and the ineffectiveness of the main parties to reduce it to a reasonable level. People are questioning whether EU policies are lowering their standard of living or their ability to find high paying work close to home. It's not difficult to understand....
I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
I think the Scottish Nats will have more seats than UKIP after the GE. I doubt the main parties will change their policies sufficiently to appease the public though, and I see UKIP becoming Britain's third party at the next General Election.
In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
oyster said:
This.
In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
So, exactly the same as the present situation then.In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
oyster said:
This.
In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
Ukip are the only opposition Labour have in North England. There should be an arrangement made to make sure Tories don't secure labour victories in these areas (again).In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
The whole idea of a scale of Europhilia with UKIP at one end and the Lib Dems at the other with the Tories and Labour inbetween is completely false. The EU is there, a 60+ year old project to create a country called the EU through political and economic union, and the only real choice we have at the national level is whether to be part of it or not.
The Tories may want to repatriate certain powers but this just makes them the equivalent of state representatives in the US calling for less powers for the federal government. It no more makes Cameron and co anti EU than it makes Republicans in North Carolina anti US if they oppose federal income taxes. Nor does it actually empower them to do anything about federal laws they oppose being enforceable in North Carolina.
I don't vote UKIP because I think the EU is a bit too centralised, I will vote UKIP because I don't believe the UK should be part of this union at all.
The Tories may want to repatriate certain powers but this just makes them the equivalent of state representatives in the US calling for less powers for the federal government. It no more makes Cameron and co anti EU than it makes Republicans in North Carolina anti US if they oppose federal income taxes. Nor does it actually empower them to do anything about federal laws they oppose being enforceable in North Carolina.
I don't vote UKIP because I think the EU is a bit too centralised, I will vote UKIP because I don't believe the UK should be part of this union at all.
Art0ir said:
Ukip are the only opposition Labour have in North England.
This. So many people miss this entirely. The fact that UKIP came this >|< close to winning Heywood and Middleton seems to have totally eluded people; this is a staunch Labour place - the sort of constituency where people would vote in Labour if the candidate was a murdering paedo or whatever. There are an awful lot less secure seats than this up for grabs at the GE.So many people that I know are going to vote UKIP and these people are from all kinds of backgrounds, from manual workers and labourers to medical and law professions.
The people predicting they'll win a couple of seats are, I suspect, way off the mark. More than 30, I reckon.
Art0ir said:
oyster said:
This.
In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
Ukip are the only opposition Labour have in North England. There should be an arrangement made to make sure Tories don't secure labour victories in these areas (again).In fact the most likely outcome right now is a coalition between Labour and the SNP. So for UKIP supporters, have a think what that means.
It means 2 very pro-EU parties in government. It also means a massive shift in spending from England to Scotland. In other words, UKIP voters will pay more tax to the lefties in Scotland and they will have to watch their country get ever closer ties to Europe.
Then its no certain that a Labour/SNP coalition will have the chance of a majority, or even certain that Labour alone will therefore have more votes than any other single political party (and first dibs in trying to put together a coalition).
It would be interesting to see who UKIP would join in a coalition with any seat they do get, as they are expected to pick up votes from across all the other parties.
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