UK General Election 2015

[JustAnotherLogin]

We are now officially in the 2015 campaign (party budget restrictions for the 'long campaign' period start today), so it seems time to star this thread.

No throwing insults at other PHers
No insulting politicians you don't like

Just facts, analysis etc please

So, given that an outright victory seems unlikely for any single party, we have to consider what the viable coalitions could be. They would have to be centred around one of the main parties, so, my view

Tories:
UKIP- possible in return for referendum (which is Tory policy anyway)
Lib Dems- possible if Tories are close to mark, but would split what is left of tne
SNP- can't see it
Irish parties: not as coalition, but support possible
Greens- unlikely

Labour
UKIP; would seem unlikely
Lib Dems: yes
SNP: Yes, but dangerous for labour
Greens: yes

And then the wild card, that would get some Kippers jumping up and down that they were right all along

A tory-labour coalition - or some sort of support arrangement. I can only see this happening if neither major can form a coaltion with the enough minors because they are all demanding too much (e.g. UKIP demand not referendum but exit, SNP demand independence). Even then it seems unthinkable, but we have to form a govt somehow

[allergictocheese]

Forgive me for being ignorant- with the 'new' rules over parliament lasting for 5 years, is it no longer possible to hold a snap election in the event of their being no clear majority? I often thought Cameron should have had the guts to have re-run in 2010 to try and achieve the majority and would hope if things are equally stagnant this time around, that is exactly what should happen.

[McWigglebum4th]

So campaigning starts today

I guess milliband will be locked in a cupboard until May incase he manages to talk to anyone from the press

[tangerine_sedge]

My personal view is that it's far too early to start working out winners and losers and coalition partners. I think these will only actually coalesce once the results start coming in.

It's easy for parties to take a moral/political stance on forming/not forming coalitions 5 months away, but politicians will throw all of that away for the slightest sniff of power!

I might actually take the following day off in May, so that I can stay up all night and watch the results come in. I think it might make interesting and exciting TV to see the political maneuvering as various seats come in. Is it too early to state that these might be the most important elections for a generation?

[zbc]

allergictocheese said:

Forgive me for being ignorant- with the 'new' rules over parliament lasting for 5 years, is it no longer possible to hold a snap election in the event of their being no clear majority? I often thought Cameron should have had the guts to have re-run in 2010 to try and achieve the majority and would hope if things are equally stagnant this time around, that is exactly what should happen.

yes it's possible but you need a two thirds majority to agree which might be hard to achieve if some didn't think that they would benefit

[Corpulent Tosser]

Clearly it will be a UKIP/SNP coalition.

SNP with a majority in Scotland, UKIP with a majority in England, together they will have an overall majority.

SNP will then get independence, which will leave UKIP with an overall majority in rUK, SNP will squander their independence by shackling itself to the EU, rUK lead by Farage will meanwhile split from the EU.

[madbadger]

Corpulent Tosser said:

SNP will then get independence, which will leave UKIP with an overall majority in rUK, SNP will squander their independence by shackling itself to the EU, rUK lead by Farage will meanwhile split from the EU.

They could just agree to swap the EU membership. Change the name on a few forms.

[McWigglebum4th]

Corpulent Tosser said:

Clearly it will be a UKIP/SNP coalition.

SNP with a majority in Scotland, UKIP with a majority in England, together they will have an overall majority.

SNP will then get independence, which will leave UKIP with an overall majority in rUK, SNP will squander their independence by shackling itself to the EU, rUK lead by Farage will meanwhile split from the EU.

Could work

The SNP want the pound and to be in the EU

the simple solution is england leaves the UK


Leaves scotland with the pound and all the debt and the membership of the EU with the welsh and the irish stuck with them


England starts from fresh with the new english pound and as a new state gets kicked out of the EU

[Mr_B]

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a referendum.

[tangerine_sedge]

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a referendum.

This is where my money would go if I was a betting man

[McWigglebum4th]

tangerine_sedge said:

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a referendum.

This is where my money would go if I was a betting man

With the tory boys running around saying how brilliant they are and the cast iron guarantee was completely invalid as CMD had his toes crossed when he said it

[BoRED S2upid]

Green labour imagine that!

[FiF]

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a meaningful referendum.

Sorry to do the edited for accuracy gig but this is what I think.

If CMD failed to deliver on another cast iron guarantee then he and the Tories will be more screwed than a QC inspector at a nut and bolt factory.

Suspect they also wouldn't even be allowed to get away with either a) we're in a coalition and the useless gits we're shackled to won't let us, or b) Dave said he wouldn't lead a Govt that won't give a referendum but he's gone and new glorious leader didn't make that promise so yah boo sucks.

Anyway it's too early yet the powers that be are trying to kick as many cans of worms as possible so far down the road that nobody can find the can openers until after the next election.

I 'd also like to know the answer to the fixed term parliament vs snap election question.

[BlackLabel]

The opinion polls (taken from http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/).

[BlackLabel]

The betting markets (from Betfair).

[JustAnotherLogin]

FiF said:

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a meaningful referendum.

I 'd also like to know the answer to the fixed term parliament vs snap election question.

Unless I'm missing something, zbc answered your question.

Although out of scope of this thread, I am interested what you think they may do to make any referendum not meaningful.

[FiF]

JustAnotherLogin said:

FiF said:

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a meaningful referendum.

I 'd also like to know the answer to the fixed term parliament vs snap election question.

Unless I'm missing something, zbc answered your question.

Although out of scope of this thread, I am interested what you think they may do to make any referendum not meaningful.

By that I meant what I understand his intended strategy. This is to make a lot of huff and puff about negotiations, but actially only agree sufficient that somehow he can spin it to give a govt recommendation for a stay in vote. The premise being that a sufficient number of the electorate will be sufficiently uninterested to do anything other than rubber stamp what the govt wants.

Thus it's a referendum over reforms which aren't meaningful in terms of the reforms which the EU needs.

Of course some will think that the EU is just fine and dandy as it is and they are entitled to that view but suspect in the minority. Forget the actual figures that came out on that now but iirc they were definitely in the minority.

[JustAnotherLogin]

FiF said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

FiF said:

Mr_B said:

Some how the Tories will remain in power and they'll engineer a way to avoid delivering a meaningful referendum.

I 'd also like to know the answer to the fixed term parliament vs snap election question.

Unless I'm missing something, zbc answered your question.

Although out of scope of this thread, I am interested what you think they may do to make any referendum not meaningful.

By that I meant what I understand his intended strategy. This is to make a lot of huff and puff about negotiations, but actually only agree sufficient that somehow he can spin it to give a govt recommendation for a stay in vote. The premise being that a sufficient number of the electorate will be sufficiently uninterested to do anything other than rubber stamp what the govt wants.

Thus it's a referendum over reforms which aren't meaningful in terms of the reforms which the EU needs.

Of course some will think that the EU is just fine and dandy as it is and they are entitled to that view but suspect in the minority. Forget the actual figures that came out on that now but iirc they were definitely in the minority.

If Cameron gives people a vote on leaving EU, no matter what reforms he has achieved (if any) and no matter what recommendation he gives, then it is meaningful. Even if the vote goes against you.

And in fact, without renegotiation, more people would vote to stay in than leave on the last 2 polls
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_o...

Though given the number of unsures, margin and past history, I think we can agree that it is too close to call


Anyway. Back to the subject if we may

[McWigglebum4th]

JustAnotherLogin said:

so, my view

Tories:
UKIP- possible in return for referendum (which is Tory policy anyway)
Lib Dems- possible if Tories are close to mark, but would split what is left of tne
SNP- can't see it
Irish parties: not as coalition, but support possible
Greens- unlikely

I would say the tory party would love to take the greens onboard if they could

[JustAnotherLogin]

McWigglebum4th said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

so, my view

Tories:
UKIP- possible in return for referendum (which is Tory policy anyway)
Lib Dems- possible if Tories are close to mark, but would split what is left of tne
SNP- can't see it
Irish parties: not as coalition, but support possible
Greens- unlikely

I would say the tory party would love to take the greens onboard if they could

Even if you were right, I can't see the greens agreeing to it

Economic policy might be a bit of a hot topic for one thing:
http://greenparty.org.uk/values/fair-society.html