UK General Election 2015

[Axionknight]

I think the spectre of a Labour/SNP coalition will damage UKIPs standing in the polls and on the day as people cast their vote for the Tories instead, who are the only party capable of kerbing such an outcome.

[BlackLabel]

Today's newsnight index.



https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight

[Scuffers]

OK, who here thinks UKIP will only get 1 seat?

realistically, the lowest expectation is 4 I would suggest.

[Vaud]

Scuffers said:

OK, who here thinks UKIP will only get 1 seat?

realistically, the lowest expectation is 4 I would suggest.

I do. I think they will change the outcome of a few seats by taking votes off the leading parties, but I think there will be a swing against them in the closing weeks.

[Scuffers]

Vaud said:

I do. I think they will change the outcome of a few seats by taking votes off the leading parties, but I think there will be a swing against them in the closing weeks.

so you think Reckless will lose his seat, Farage will not get his and Grimsby/Yarmouth/Thurrock/Eastly/etc are no hopes?

[maxxy5]

I think ukip will do worse than their polling suggests as the disgruntled tory voters who said they might vote ukip will be worried about Labour. Also Nigel hasn't exactly been on fire lately.

but obviously that depends if ukip are keeping the tories out of marginal seats

Edited by maxxy5 on Monday 20th April 19:13

[BGARK]

UKIP are doing fine + 4% this week.

Best case scenario in my opinion would be a UKIP-CON coalition.

[Axionknight]

BGARK said:

UKIP are doing fine + 4% this week.

Best case scenario in my opinion would be a UKIP-CON coalition.

They won't win enough seats.

[JustAnotherLogin]

BGARK said:

UKIP are doing fine + 4% this week.

Best case scenario in my opinion would be a UKIP-CON coalition.

Selective use of polls again?

The only one they are up 4% is ICM, and that is because last week there was a statistical outlier where UKIP polled 7%

In my view UKIP aren't going to get enough seats to be worthy of a place at the table. The polls are suggesting between 1 and 5, and have been for a while.

All they will do is take votes from the Tores and hand it to Lab/SNP. I know that's not a popular view here, but that's where the evidence points.

[ninjacost]

labour could be defeated with tactical voting ,if cons supporters voted ukip where they are running labour close in northern constituencies,they could dilute the labour vote and reduce their seats ,maybe a reciprocal deal down south ?One proviso though Nigel wins thanet south! :-).

[ralphrj]

JustAnotherLogin said:

All they will do is take votes from the Tores and hand it to Lab/SNP. I know that's not a popular view here, but that's where the evidence points.

^This



The old "this tory government isn't tory enough for me so I won't vote for them" argument is going to result in the most left wing government in the history of the UK.

When Ed Balls stands up to make his first budget speech just consider for a moment that he would have lost his seat in 2010 if it wasn't for UKIP.

[hidetheelephants]

ed at the LDs announcing to the agog electorate that they are 'the party of education'. The cynic in me concluded that this really meant that all their (soon to be ex-)MPs would be signing up as teachers after May the 7th.

[BGARK]

JustAnotherLogin said:

In my view

In my view if we got dropped onto a deserted Island, you are probably the first one that would be eaten..

[550M]

ralphrj said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

All they will do is take votes from the Tores and hand it to Lab/SNP. I know that's not a popular view here, but that's where the evidence points.

^This



The old "this tory government isn't tory enough for me so I won't vote for them" argument is going to result in the most left wing government in the history of the UK.

When Ed Balls stands up to make his first budget speech just consider for a moment that he would have lost his seat in 2010 if it wasn't for UKIP.

Good post.

[Vaud]

Scuffers said:

so you think Reckless will lose his seat, Farage will not get his and Grimsby/Yarmouth/Thurrock/Eastly/etc are no hopes?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3035424/Ukip-tries-bury-second-loser-poll-showing-former-Tory-MP-Mark-Reckless-lose-seat.html

Possibly to the first, maybe to Farage who has been a bit invisible locally apparently... and the rest - don't know TBH.

[NicD]

ralphrj said:

When Ed Balls stands up to make his first budget speech just consider for a moment that he would have lost his seat in 2010 if it wasn't for UKIP.

If the Conservatives had more appealing policies, he would have lost his seat.

[MarkRSi]

Few questions regarding the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon... (apologies if this has already been answered)

AFAIK she's not standing as an MP in this election, as she's already an MSP...
If there's a Labour-SNP coalition for whatever reason, who would represent the SNP? Would there be an SNP Deputy PM, like Clegg? And if so who?

[Vaud]

MarkRSi said:

Few questions regarding the SNP/Nicola Sturgeon... (apologies if this has already been answered)

AFAIK she's not standing as an MP in this election, as she's already an MSP...
If there's a Labour-SNP coalition for whatever reason, who would represent the SNP? Would there be an SNP Deputy PM, like Clegg? And if so who?

Alec Salmond, assuming he gets his seat (Gordon, UK parliamentary seat)

[Axionknight]

He'll win it, I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

Alex.S and Nigel.F in parliament would produce some interesting speeches and debates IMO, if they both win their respective seats, of course.

[MarkRSi]

Axionknight said:

He'll win it, I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

Alex.S and Nigel.F in parliament would produce some interesting speeches and debates IMO, if they both win their respective seats, of course.

Cheers, did wonder that. Alex is actually my local SNP candidate, so probably a safe seat