UK General Election 2015
Discussion
Greg66 said:
I was thinking a bit more about this. The key to it is the English - and specifically Labour and perhaps UKIP English voters - deciding they'd rather have the Cons than the SNP running things.
The real die hard English Labour voters probably won't be too upset to see the SNP's hand in the Government as it will be pushing left wing policies that that demographic will be happy with.
The key is the more moderate centrist English Labour voter and the English UKIP voter. It is them who have to be persuaded that the SNP is unacceptably far left, or too Scottish, or something, and then to vote Con.
The system we have allows Scotland, with 1/13 of the vote, to control Wstminster if the two major parties are even. It needs the English as a whole to gang together to combat that - assuming that they want to.
The other key of course being the Kippers who would rather a left wing Lab/SNP coalition who definitely won't give an EU referendum rather than a Tory/LD coalition who probably would (depending on coalition negotiations) or even a Tory govt who wouldThe real die hard English Labour voters probably won't be too upset to see the SNP's hand in the Government as it will be pushing left wing policies that that demographic will be happy with.
The key is the more moderate centrist English Labour voter and the English UKIP voter. It is them who have to be persuaded that the SNP is unacceptably far left, or too Scottish, or something, and then to vote Con.
The system we have allows Scotland, with 1/13 of the vote, to control Wstminster if the two major parties are even. It needs the English as a whole to gang together to combat that - assuming that they want to.
JustAnotherLogin said:
The other key of course being the Kippers who would rather a left wing Lab/SNP coalition who definitely won't give an EU referendum rather than a Tory/LD coalition who probably would (depending on coalition negotiations) or even a Tory govt who would
Come Again?Welshbeef said:
Scuffers said:
Nothing to do with the EU per say and more to do with the banking levy etc.
Millipead already said he wants to put it up, hsbc already paying ~700m, they're saying enough is enough.
If they move even just the hq, we loose some 2-3bn a year in tax revenues.
last years levy was 0.156% this year is 0.21% - last year it earned UK HMRC £750m from HSBC this year if it mirrored last year would generate £1billion in additional taxes for HMRC. Millipead already said he wants to put it up, hsbc already paying ~700m, they're saying enough is enough.
If they move even just the hq, we loose some 2-3bn a year in tax revenues.
Now Labour have a fully costed policy to drastically increase this levy to pay for badly needed public services. This could DOUBLE what HSBC pay now if not more....
Labour started the Bank Levy and its continued ever since.
When will people stop bashing bankers? That's all we hear about in Question time f
king bankers bonus all the time not that actually most people over extended themselves loads of personal debt for stuff they wanted they choose that lifestyle. Lose the Bank well big problem huge problem as its all the child benefit which was cut previously to find again
greygoose said:
BlackLabel said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
P5Nij said:
I don't understand why the Tories aren't hovering over Miliband getting stuck in with both size nines, maybe they're waiting for something catasprophic to happen to the Labour campaign so they won't have to, but I wish they'd just get on with it and kick the opposition into touch. They have a golden opportunity to make Labour unelectable for yet they seem to be holding back. The most important thing in this election is to keep Labour out.
I keep thinking that they are biding their time and at some point they will hit him so hard that he has no time to recover.To be honest, the Tory campaign has been poor. It's lacking direction and intensity.
Greg66 said:
NicD said:
They have all benefitted enormously from virtually zero borowing rates and a government guarantee on deposits.
I am not necessarily in agreement with the levy, but don't characterise these banks as neutral.
How so? How many of them have called on the Govt guarantee? And don't they make money from lending? The higher te borrowing rate, the more scope for making money. I am not necessarily in agreement with the levy, but don't characterise these banks as neutral.
Greg66 said:
Yes, because of the Govt guarantee, they could keep far less in reserve and inspire confidence in their customers. As they make money from lending, the LOWER the borrowing rate, and the HIGHER the Loan rate, the more scope for making money.
EFA and jaw dropping dohness.Scuffers said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
The other key of course being the Kippers who would rather a left wing Lab/SNP coalition who definitely won't give an EU referendum rather than a Tory/LD coalition who probably would (depending on coalition negotiations) or even a Tory govt who would
Come Again?Tory + LD probably would
Tory only govt would
Kippers will vote for UKIP, which means that we are likely to get a Lab/SNP, thus losing them their most desired policy. Whereas if they voted for Tory we would get a Tory govt. Indeed if even just the Kippers who voted Tory at the last election voted Tory at this then there would be a Tory govt
So we can blame the Kippers for the Lab/SNP govt and the loss of the EU referendum
Tried to make it simple for you Scuffers. But its hard to avoid the use of a 4 syllable word occasionally
NicD said:
Greg66 said:
NicD said:
They have all benefitted enormously from virtually zero borowing rates and a government guarantee on deposits.
I am not necessarily in agreement with the levy, but don't characterise these banks as neutral.
How so? How many of them have called on the Govt guarantee? And don't they make money from lending? The higher te borrowing rate, the more scope for making money. I am not necessarily in agreement with the levy, but don't characterise these banks as neutral.
Greg66 said:
Yes, because of the Govt guarantee, they could keep far less in reserve and inspire confidence in their customers. As they make money from lending, the LOWER the borrowing rate, and the HIGHER the Loan rate, the more scope for making money.
EFA and jaw dropping dohness."Dohness" indeed. Berk.
JustAnotherLogin said:
Lab + SNP won't give a referendum on leaving EU
Tory + LD probably would
Tory only govt would
Kippers will vote for UKIP, which means that we are likely to get a Lab/SNP, thus losing them their most desired policy. Whereas if they voted for Tory we would get a Tory govt. Indeed if even just the Kippers who voted Tory at the last election voted Tory at this then there would be a Tory govt
So we can blame the Kippers for the Lab/SNP govt and the loss of the EU referendum
Tried to make it simple for you Scuffers. But its hard to avoid the use of a 4 syllable word occasionally
so, after all that you're just repeating the old vote UKIP get Labour bullsTory + LD probably would
Tory only govt would
Kippers will vote for UKIP, which means that we are likely to get a Lab/SNP, thus losing them their most desired policy. Whereas if they voted for Tory we would get a Tory govt. Indeed if even just the Kippers who voted Tory at the last election voted Tory at this then there would be a Tory govt
So we can blame the Kippers for the Lab/SNP govt and the loss of the EU referendum
Tried to make it simple for you Scuffers. But its hard to avoid the use of a 4 syllable word occasionally
t again?forget 4 syllables, 4 words would have covered it!
JALI believes you should abandon your convictions and vote for his precious Tories, after all, they would never lie or fail to deliver on a promise.
I voted for 'em in 2010 and they haven't done or acted on the things I wanted them to, so I'll be registering my vote elsewhere (for all the good it will do me in Scotland anyway), believe it or not, you can't let people down or not represent what they believe and still expect them to vote for you and the negative campaigning of "vote for us or that terrible lot over there will get in" doesn't sit well with the electorate, and nor does calling them closet racists and swivel eyed loons then beseeching them to return to the Tory fold.
Do you want the swivel eyed loons and racists back in the Tory camp, JALI?
I voted for 'em in 2010 and they haven't done or acted on the things I wanted them to, so I'll be registering my vote elsewhere (for all the good it will do me in Scotland anyway), believe it or not, you can't let people down or not represent what they believe and still expect them to vote for you and the negative campaigning of "vote for us or that terrible lot over there will get in" doesn't sit well with the electorate, and nor does calling them closet racists and swivel eyed loons then beseeching them to return to the Tory fold.
Do you want the swivel eyed loons and racists back in the Tory camp, JALI?
Three things to say in response to that, axion:
1. The vast majority of UKIP supporters are not racists or loons, closet or public;
2. The Conservatives had to govern in coalition. That led to many compromises and to the LibDems welshing on boundary reform; and
3. This is about real life; do you really want Labour (with or without the SNP) to have the opportunity to mess around with the country over the next five years? Remember that it takes much longer to undo the damage than it takes for Labour to cause it.
1. The vast majority of UKIP supporters are not racists or loons, closet or public;
2. The Conservatives had to govern in coalition. That led to many compromises and to the LibDems welshing on boundary reform; and
3. This is about real life; do you really want Labour (with or without the SNP) to have the opportunity to mess around with the country over the next five years? Remember that it takes much longer to undo the damage than it takes for Labour to cause it.
Scuffers said:
so, after all that you're just repeating the old vote UKIP get Labour bullst again?
forget 4 syllables, 4 words would have covered it!
And yet you still don't get it because you call it bullst again?forget 4 syllables, 4 words would have covered it!
tThe polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
JustAnotherLogin said:
And yet you still don't get it because you call it bullst
The polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
Except they are not the cold hard facts. What might have been true in 2010 is no longer. UKIP have been taking votes from all over the place, including a big chunk from people who had not voted for a long time. And look at Heywood and Middleton, UKIP nearly displaced a safe Labour seat, if just 600 odd Tory voters had voted intelligently (Conservative was nowhere near winning this seat) then UKIP would have won. In that seat it was vote Tory, get Labour.tThe polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
JustAnotherLogin said:
And yet you still don't get it because you call it bullst
The polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
think your wrong mate. I want to vote UKIP and I know lots of people where I live want to do the same.But the UKIP candidate will not get a sniff of a chance however if the Conservative candidate is close we will all switch to Conservative and I think a lot of people are smart enough to work that out for themselves without all the stupid vote UKIP get Labour nonsensetThe polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
johnxjsc1985 said:
think your wrong mate. I want to vote UKIP and I know lots of people where I live want to do the same.But the UKIP candidate will not get a sniff of a chance however if the Conservative candidate is close we will all switch to Conservative and I think a lot of people are smart enough to work that out for themselves without all the stupid vote UKIP get Labour nonsense
Your argument is undermined by the fact that S2art is denying it just above youS2art
If the Kippers only voted UKIP where they are likely to win ahead of the Tories, then the gains would be even greater, as that looks like only about 3 seats. I only only considered the whole country as one, because the figures are much easier to get
JustAnotherLogin said:
Maybe the voters of Rochester and Stroud understand the point, Tories look to be ahead
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/six-more-marg...
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/six-more-marg...
Why Miliband leads Cameron in battle for wavering voters - according to Lord Ashcroft
Ashcroft said:
Conservatives have long hoped Ed Miliband would crumble in the intensity of the campaign, and that the prospect of seeing him in Downing Street would ultimately prove an insurmountable obstacle for many who would otherwise vote Labour.
Yet far from crumbling, Miliband has shown a good deal of resilience in the face of some rather unseemly attacks.
This is one of the reasons why, though most still think Cameron would do a better job, Miliband’s personal ratings have on some measures actually improved over the course of the campaign.
Yet far from crumbling, Miliband has shown a good deal of resilience in the face of some rather unseemly attacks.
This is one of the reasons why, though most still think Cameron would do a better job, Miliband’s personal ratings have on some measures actually improved over the course of the campaign.
Ashcroft said:
If the Tories were expecting the contrast between Cameron and Miliband to work as a kind of secret weapon, they are still waiting for it to take effect.
Ashcroft said:
As I always stress, these are not predictions. But one notable finding from my research during the campaign is that Labour seem to be winning the ground war. Though there is no clear relationship between the level of campaign activity and the parties’ vote shares, in Tory-Labour marginals people are more likely to say they have had literature, direct mail, phone calls or doorstep visits from Labour than from the Conservatives.
It would be unfair to think of this as a failure of the Tory campaign and its organisers. As Donald Rumsfeld observed, you go to war with the army you have. If the blue army is being outgunned that is not a matter of logistics, but because it lacks recruits. And that would not be surprising for a party that has been unable to reach very far beyond its core support for more than 20 years.
It would be unfair to think of this as a failure of the Tory campaign and its organisers. As Donald Rumsfeld observed, you go to war with the army you have. If the blue army is being outgunned that is not a matter of logistics, but because it lacks recruits. And that would not be surprising for a party that has been unable to reach very far beyond its core support for more than 20 years.
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