UK General Election 2015

[Scuffers]

Croutons said:

I am in Bristol West, where according to Ashcroft, 25% of people have not read the Green party manifesto. The area is student heavy, but if this is how it plays out its one helluva swing


http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/bristol-west/

I find that both sad and terrifying...

[wc98]

speedy_thrills said:

Munter said:

speedy_thrills said:

That tickles me a bit. I would have expected some poor intern walla to have been made to verify them before publishing and subsequent humiliation.

Need to turn it around too fast and decided to "trust" the respondents. Always a bad move that. Trusting the general public. The majority of them a total idiots.

That's why you use an intern, they are cheap and can forgo sleep .

or cheap labour from india to replace uk contract it labour like the environment agency scotland http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/572945/Nico... ,apparently sturgeon has no problem with it. fortunately police scotland appear to be looking into it.

[Muncher]

Doing my bit!

[BGARK]

Think I will go out tomorrow and start buying myself lots of NEW stuff, all seems so easy..

[BlackLabel]

Nate Silver the American statistician who has successfully predicted several US elections was on panorama just now and made a prediction for May 7th:

Con = largest party by 5-15 seats.

Con+Lib Dem = doesn't give you anywhere near a majority.

Lab+SNP = within touching distance of a majority.

So the only way Labour can get stuff through parliament is if the SNP and the Lib Dems support them.

If not we're going to have one big stalemate. Sturgeon was interviewed by Evan Davis today and she reiterated her desire to work with a potential Labour government. But Clegg earlier today said his party will not prop up any government "held hostage" by the SNP or UKIP.

[BlackLabel]

Scuffers said:

Croutons said:

I am in Bristol West, where according to Ashcroft, 25% of people have not read the Green party manifesto. The area is student heavy, but if this is how it plays out its one helluva swing


http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/bristol-west/

I find that both sad and terrifying...

The Greens are very popular amongst the 'yoof'.



If Miliband is in power there Labour and the Greens will win even more of the youth vote in 2020 because Labour have promised 16 and 17-year-olds the vote (an additional 1.5+ million voters).

[turbobloke]

There must be a return on all the green propaganda somewhere, and where better than with idealistic indoctrinated indebted young people who will vote for a free lunch (believing it exists or not) with little time or inclination to look into things beyond a superficially appealing soundbite or tweet.

[anonymous-user]

BlackLabel said:

Nate Silver the American statistician who has successfully predicted several US elections was on panorama just now and made a prediction for May 7th:

Con = largest party by 5-15 seats.

Con+Lib Dem = doesn't give you anywhere near a majority.

Lab+SNP = within touching distance of a majority.

So the only way Labour can get stuff through parliament is if the SNP and the Lib Dems support them.

If not we're going to have one big stalemate. Sturgeon was interviewed by Evan Davis today and she reiterated her desire to work with a potential Labour government. But Clegg earlier today said his party will not prop up any government "held hostage" by the SNP or UKIP.

Interesting. I wonder how Con plus LD plus DUP stacks up on those predictions.

[Halb]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/na...

He was on the Beeb tonight.
The guy's website

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

Edited by Halb on Monday 27th April 22:22

[anonymous-user]

Hmm. 318 (Con/LD/DUP possibly in a formal coalition) vs 315 (Lab/SNP in an informal alliance ). Maybe 320 if you add 5 (PC and the Greens). Maybe 323 if you add the SDLP. And if Sinn Fein take 5, 323 is the magic number.

Bottom line is that a formal minority coalition could end up nobbled by a collection of tax and spend parties who then would not band together in a formal anything. Except they'd have to in order to get business done.

What a fking fk up.


Eta: I hadn't realised *he* was fivethirtyeight.com. He is very very good at predicting the US Presidentials; his website's excellent.

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 27th April 22:37

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 27th April 22:41

[Chlamydia]

Challo said:

Watched a few of the recent interviews from Labour stating alot of money will come from Bankers Bonuses, Tax Avoidance and Mansion tax (im sure more will come from elsewhere but these are good PR headlines for the 'hard working families'). Do they have any fall back plans on what happens if this money doesn't appear?

Going from past experience; raid pensions, sell off gold reserves (after first letting the market know so the value plummets), amongst other incredibly stupid things.

[JustAnotherLogin]

Greg66 said:

Hmm. 315 (Con/LD/DUP possibly in a formal coalition) vs 318 (Lab/SNP in an informal alliance ). Maybe 322 if you add 4 (PC and the Greens). Maybe more if you add the SDLP. And if Sinn Fein take 6, 323 is the magic number.

Bottom line is that a formal minority coalition could end up nobbled by a collection of tax and spend parties who then would not band together in a formal anything. Except they'd have to in order to get business done.

What a fking fk up.

Could be a big constitutional argument if that is the case. Which is the legitimate govt out of that?

The big question is whether anyone can get a Queens Speech through

Cameron is in the seat to start, if he can get Con, LD, DUP and UKIP to vote for, or abstain, it would need all the others to vote it down
And if they do, and then can't agree their own Queen's speech, then the electorate is likely to punish them

[anonymous-user]

JustAnotherLogin said:

Greg66 said:

Hmm. 315 (Con/LD/DUP possibly in a formal coalition) vs 318 (Lab/SNP in an informal alliance ). Maybe 322 if you add 4 (PC and the Greens). Maybe more if you add the SDLP. And if Sinn Fein take 6, 323 is the magic number.

Bottom line is that a formal minority coalition could end up nobbled by a collection of tax and spend parties who then would not band together in a formal anything. Except they'd have to in order to get business done.

What a fking fk up.

Could be a big constitutional argument if that is the case. Which is the legitimate govt out of that?

The big question is whether anyone can get a Queens Speech through

Cameron is in the seat to start, if he can get Con, LD, DUP and UKIP to vote for, or abstain, it would need all the others to vote it down
And if they do, and then can't agree their own Queen's speech, then the electorate is likely to punish them

Sorry JALI - just had to amend my numbers to pick up the current Nate Silver prediction on his website.

You're right though: what's the legit govt? On those numbers there simply isn't one.

But the tax and spenders have the better chance.

However, there seems - just, perhaps, maybe, at last to be a movement away from the prospect of the Lab/SNP option. Quite possible that the picture in ten days could be quite different to today.

[speedy_thrills]

BlackLabel said:

But Clegg earlier today said...

I think from previous experience we can discount the things Clegg says he will stand for or against.

BlackLabel said:

If Miliband is in power there Labour and the Greens will win even more of the youth vote in 2020 because Labour have promised 16 and 17-year-olds the vote (an additional 1.5+ million voters).

Well...assuming the Conservatives don't launch some policies that appeal to younger voters. Equally you could deduce the Conservatives could be in real trouble because their highest level of support comes from the 75+ demographic so many of them will likely die or that Labour will be in trouble because younger voters tend to support them but the UK population is ageing and people are living longer.

[W124]

The Tory policy, and it's a wise one, of giving Miliband and Sturgeon the exact amount of rope, is going to work I think. Note that the conservative press have laid off Clegg because they need him. Farage as well maybe. They are playing a very clever game.

[l354uge]

In the past few weeks I've seen two posts on social media saying that any tory/ukip voters should remove the poster as a friend, now isnt that a beautiful use of our democracy?

[FiF]

Greg66 said:

JustAnotherLogin said:

Greg66 said:

Hmm. 315 (Con/LD/DUP possibly in a formal coalition) vs 318 (Lab/SNP in an informal alliance ). Maybe 322 if you add 4 (PC and the Greens). Maybe more if you add the SDLP. And if Sinn Fein take 6, 323 is the magic number.

Bottom line is that a formal minority coalition could end up nobbled by a collection of tax and spend parties who then would not band together in a formal anything. Except they'd have to in order to get business done.

What a fking fk up.

Could be a big constitutional argument if that is the case. Which is the legitimate govt out of that?

The big question is whether anyone can get a Queens Speech through

Cameron is in the seat to start, if he can get Con, LD, DUP and UKIP to vote for, or abstain, it would need all the others to vote it down
And if they do, and then can't agree their own Queen's speech, then the electorate is likely to punish them

Sorry JALI - just had to amend my numbers to pick up the current Nate Silver prediction on his website.

You're right though: what's the legit govt? On those numbers there simply isn't one.

But the tax and spenders have the better chance.

However, there seems - just, perhaps, maybe, at last to be a movement away from the prospect of the Lab/SNP option. Quite possible that the picture in ten days could be quite different to today.

Still agree with the picture may be different in many ways could be quite different but how. There's a lot of people saying don't know / undecided / refuseniks who have pretty much decided, be they shy Tories / shy kippers / shy LDs.

Also agree with JALI's observation that in the post election clusterfeck that we're probably going to get, there are great risks not only for parties who try and fail to form a government but particularly for parties seen as wreckers or being particularly selfish in their demands. SNP might just be being given enough rope in that respect. In the event of another election those wreckers should be punished harshly. Hopefully.

[Halb]

Greg66 said:

Eta: I hadn't realised *he* was fivethirtyeight.com. He is very very good at predicting the US Presidentials; his website's excellent.

Edited by Greg66 on Monday 27th April 22:37

Edited by Greg66 on Monday 27th April 22:41

Yeah, he's good, 'just the facts ma'am'. But he admitted on the show that it's a lot tougher in the UK, it's not all demographics.

[johnxjsc1985]

Not sure I can take 9 more days I think I peaked too early.

[MarshPhantom]

Tories are certainly nailing the economy - 0.3% growth in the last quarter. The worst results since 2012.

Woo, and indeed Hoo!