UK General Election 2015
Discussion
Don't think that Ashcroft's more targeted polling has shown that much swing in any of the groups has it? FIF, you've been following them more closely than I - have you seen any evidence of that?
Interesting that Labour have only been ahead in 1 out the last 6 polls. They must be worried, as it has been them ahead in 5 out of 6. Statistical anomaly or trend? Time will tell
Beginning to look like UKIP have stopped losing ground in the polls as well. Though again whether that is a trend or a blip is unclear
Interesting that Labour have only been ahead in 1 out the last 6 polls. They must be worried, as it has been them ahead in 5 out of 6. Statistical anomaly or trend? Time will tell
Beginning to look like UKIP have stopped losing ground in the polls as well. Though again whether that is a trend or a blip is unclear
FiF said:
Meanwhile Richard Rose throws his hat into the ring with 2015GE prediction.
SNP surge to hand Cons a victory. While SNP may have enough seats to put Miliband in Downing Street it's too much of a U turn considering they will have just trounced them. Predicts Cameron to call for a vote of confidence in a Conservative government within ten days of the election. If losing Labour have 14 days to get it together, he predicts they won't hack it.
Interesting.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scot...
The number of seats for each party is I believe a complete guess at present. But if (big if) those numbers did happen, personally I don't believe that Cameron would call for a vote of no confidence, nor should he. The reason is that traditionally (on the few events where it has happened), if a 2nd election is called quickly, the party that the electorate believe is responsible for the failure form a givt is punished. If he calls no-confidence that vote I think the electorate would blame him for not trying to form a govt and he would lose on the 2nd vote,SNP surge to hand Cons a victory. While SNP may have enough seats to put Miliband in Downing Street it's too much of a U turn considering they will have just trounced them. Predicts Cameron to call for a vote of confidence in a Conservative government within ten days of the election. If losing Labour have 14 days to get it together, he predicts they won't hack it.
Interesting.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scot...
If he tries, but fails - whether due to labour weakness, SNP obstinacy or UKIP intransigence, then he will have a chance. If he goes too quickly he will fail
Scuffers said:
longblackcoat said:
Scuffers said:
longblackcoat said:
Genuinely don't know; the basic policy is that the smallest amount possible is given in actual cash, and that instead the aid donor will contract to provide services (schools, running water, that sort of thing), the value of which is counted in the foreign aid budget. Clearly that means spending money in-country, and it's true that there's real problems with corruption in many of the aided countries.
But the government doesn't just write a cheque to "Impoverished Country In Africa"; they're a bit more clued-up than that.
so you're saying they paid for the Gulfstream jets directly then?But the government doesn't just write a cheque to "Impoverished Country In Africa"; they're a bit more clued-up than that.
UK aid cash helped African dictator buy himself a £30m jet
As for a breakdown, there is a on a simpler level this
If it comes to a coalition with the Tories, only one party have said that they could form a coalition with the Tories, but not whilst Cameron is in charge. And that's UKIP.
So the potential for NOT having a referendum if the Tories form a govt seems to be if they have to have UKIP in a coalition.
Ironic
So the potential for NOT having a referendum if the Tories form a govt seems to be if they have to have UKIP in a coalition.
Ironic
Scuffers said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
If it comes to a coalition with the Tories, only one party have said that they could form a coalition with the Tories, but not whilst Cameron is in charge. And that's UKIP.
So the potential for NOT having a referendum if the Tories form a govt seems to be if they have to have UKIP in a coalition.
Ironic
On what plannet are you on?So the potential for NOT having a referendum if the Tories form a govt seems to be if they have to have UKIP in a coalition.
Ironic
I had noticed that the minor parties support seems to be 'weaker' in Ashcroft's polls. In particular when you get to the definitely will vote that way it tends to fade - more so for LD and Greens than UKIP, but noticeable.
Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense
Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.
So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May
Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense
Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.
So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May
The Tories best hope?
news said:
The number out of work in the UK fell by 97,000 to 1.86 million in the three months to December.
Average earnings including bonuses rose 2.1% in the quarter from a year earlier.
Excluding bonuses, earnings rose 1.7%.
The ONS also said total pay was 2.4% higher in December compared with the same month in 2013 - the biggest lead over inflation since March 2010.
CPI inflation was 0.5% in December, and new data released on Tuesday showed the rate fell to 0.3% in January, its lowest level since records began.
Sp despite some people's anecdotal evidence, income for the average person is going up, and significantlyAverage earnings including bonuses rose 2.1% in the quarter from a year earlier.
Excluding bonuses, earnings rose 1.7%.
The ONS also said total pay was 2.4% higher in December compared with the same month in 2013 - the biggest lead over inflation since March 2010.
CPI inflation was 0.5% in December, and new data released on Tuesday showed the rate fell to 0.3% in January, its lowest level since records began.
NailedOn said:
Ed Balls' latest wheeze is to cap the 25% tax free lump sum from pensions.
The fact that many people have planned for this sum, perhaps for decades, is not considered. In fact, many saw the lump sum as a reason to pay into pensions even when the returns were poor.
So those who saved for their later life are penalised.
Labour say it will be worth £2b a year, to fund the cut in Uny tuition fees.
That would be assuming that people still took the money and paid the tax. A big assumption.
Link?The fact that many people have planned for this sum, perhaps for decades, is not considered. In fact, many saw the lump sum as a reason to pay into pensions even when the returns were poor.
So those who saved for their later life are penalised.
Labour say it will be worth £2b a year, to fund the cut in Uny tuition fees.
That would be assuming that people still took the money and paid the tax. A big assumption.
And by coincidence - remember the debacle of Brown selling off gold at rock bottom pices? It seems this govt are somewhat more competent (not hard I grant you)
The government announced overnight it had sold its stake in Eurostar. The stake is being bought by a Canadian pension fund and a UK asset manager, who will buy shares for £585m. Eurostar will also hand over £170m to redeem shares which guarantee a dividend. The government's stake was officially valued last year at £325m.
So they've sold it for twice the valuation of last year.
The government announced overnight it had sold its stake in Eurostar. The stake is being bought by a Canadian pension fund and a UK asset manager, who will buy shares for £585m. Eurostar will also hand over £170m to redeem shares which guarantee a dividend. The government's stake was officially valued last year at £325m.
So they've sold it for twice the valuation of last year.
FiF said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
That certainly is the view of some FiF.
yet the polling consistently shows him as a strength for the Tories: polls usually show he is seen as more trustworthy and more competent than any other leader (including those of the minor parties).
As usual, it's not what you say, but what you conveniently leave out which betrays the emptiness of your point. yet the polling consistently shows him as a strength for the Tories: polls usually show he is seen as more trustworthy and more competent than any other leader (including those of the minor parties).
In all cases it's a minority who are satisfied and the majority are dissatisfied with Cameron.
The next leader shows the same patter not so far behind and so on.
Seems like the argument technique employed, so often criticised when used by Ukippers, is one of 'oh but look the others are so much worse. '
Waste of space.
It is not just a case of "the others are so much worse", his ratings are unusually good for a PM at this time in an electoral and economic cycle. So most of the population see him as good, not just compared to Miliband, Farage and Clegg, but against other PMs.
So it is really hard to justify your assertion that he is bringing the Tory ratings down. You may think that badly of him, but the evidence is that population at large does not.
Axionknight said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
Seems like an argument technique employed, so often criticised when used by Anti-Kippers, is one of "I've been caught out because the facts don't support my biased assertion, so I'll throw some insults"
It is not just a case of "the others are so much worse", his ratings are unusually good for a PM at this time in an electoral and economic cycle. So most of the population see him as good, not just compared to Miliband, Farage and Clegg, but against other PMs.
So it is really hard to justify your assertion that he is bringing the Tory ratings down. You may think that badly of him, but the evidence is that population at large does not.
Yet despite this his party has polled between 2% and 7% less in every Ashcroft poll this year than they did at the 2010 election - Daves popularity clearly isn't availing them to much at all.It is not just a case of "the others are so much worse", his ratings are unusually good for a PM at this time in an electoral and economic cycle. So most of the population see him as good, not just compared to Miliband, Farage and Clegg, but against other PMs.
So it is really hard to justify your assertion that he is bringing the Tory ratings down. You may think that badly of him, but the evidence is that population at large does not.
But I do note that the last 3 polls have put the Tories ahead. First time for years. Random chance? Beginnings of a trend? Pick your corner and lob your opinion in
Not sure how well this will work, but...
Date(s)
conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–3 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,701 36% 34% 5% 14% 6% 5% 2%
1–2 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,866 35% 32% 7% 15% 6% 5% 3%
27 Feb–1 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,003 34% 31% 7% 14% 7% 8%
FiF said:
Cameron at this stage of his first term in office 39% approval
Blair at same stage of his first term 48% approval.
But then Blair was opposed by Little Willy Hague and One for the road hic Kennedy so his lead of over those two was vast compared to Dave's mighty 9% lead over Nigel F.
Think you need to be careful of your accusations re facts not fitting assertions.
Your first paragraph makes no sense btw. Unless an accusation that something said by CMD's own staff isn't an insult but is when it's by someone on the Internet.
So you pick Blair who was incredibly successful in polls as a comparison?Blair at same stage of his first term 48% approval.
But then Blair was opposed by Little Willy Hague and One for the road hic Kennedy so his lead of over those two was vast compared to Dave's mighty 9% lead over Nigel F.
Think you need to be careful of your accusations re facts not fitting assertions.
Your first paragraph makes no sense btw. Unless an accusation that something said by CMD's own staff isn't an insult but is when it's by someone on the Internet.
Also
Cameron 42% (above his party's rating, so he can't be dragging them down)
Farage 27&
a lead of 15% over Farage
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/14/op...
Even on your figures a big lead over farage, and he is still higher than the Tories, so hardly dragging them down
HonestIago said:
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/generalelection2015
Paints a slightly different picture to what Yougov would have us believe. Over 24000 respondents and I can't see why Kippers should be especially likely to be on MSN News. I'm not saying UKIP will get 40%+ but merely that those expecting them to poll low teens are in for a shock!
As a matter of interest then, what do you expect UKIP to get as share of the vote in May?Paints a slightly different picture to what Yougov would have us believe. Over 24000 respondents and I can't see why Kippers should be especially likely to be on MSN News. I'm not saying UKIP will get 40%+ but merely that those expecting them to poll low teens are in for a shock!
Presumably much higher than "low teens"
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