UK General Election 2015

[xjsdriver]

McWigglebum4th said:

I have my own well

I have been to the bottom of this well

It is about 6 meters down


This well supplies ALL our domestic water



I would be 100% happy for fracking to happen under my house

As this fracking takes place about 1000 meters down

So for anything to reach my well it must travel 994 meters up


Through the caping rock that keeps the gas down there


The only place the gas/chemicals could get out near the surface is thought the well


The well will be about 5 layers of steel and concrete all of which will of been pressure tested at each stage

No pressure test = No permission to frack


And as to the nasty chemicals the majority is Dihydrogen Monoxide which can be lethal in small quantities

But i am not scared

I would be willing for £1000 to drink a bottle of this Dihydrogen Monoxide


But there is a tread about fracking so i suggest you go there and scream how you are being oppressed

I think you're being a bit too much up your own arse in your views on the safety of on-land fracking. Either that, or you've clearly had too much unseasonal sun, I'd suggest you have a sit down and have a nice cool glass of water ;-) By the way, I read somewhere that it is quite possible to drown in only a couple of inches of this Dihydrogen Monoxide stuff.....is this true?

[turbobloke]

xjsdriver said:

McWigglebum4th said:

I have my own well

I have been to the bottom of this well

It is about 6 meters down


This well supplies ALL our domestic water



I would be 100% happy for fracking to happen under my house

As this fracking takes place about 1000 meters down

So for anything to reach my well it must travel 994 meters up


Through the caping rock that keeps the gas down there


The only place the gas/chemicals could get out near the surface is thought the well


The well will be about 5 layers of steel and concrete all of which will of been pressure tested at each stage

No pressure test = No permission to frack


And as to the nasty chemicals the majority is Dihydrogen Monoxide which can be lethal in small quantities

But i am not scared

I would be willing for £1000 to drink a bottle of this Dihydrogen Monoxide


But there is a tread about fracking so i suggest you go there and scream how you are being oppressed

I think you're being a bit too much up your own arse in your views on the safety of on-land fracking.

Which has been around for over 50 years and is as safe as can reasonably be expected from a life lived outside a cotton wool ball. Even though there are accidents with cotton wool that end up in hospital

[BlackLabel]

Lord Ashcroft's latest poll:

|http://thumbsnap.com/t4F2WtYM[/url]

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/01/l...

The latest Survation poll.

[Axionknight]

Lib Dem support bumping along the bottom of the barrel in such a fashion is a positive, at least.

[anonymous-user]

I guess 31/30 translates to considetably more Labour seats than Tory though...

[FiF]

Under the old modelling systems yes it would due to an inherent bias in constituency boundaries that were set to be corrected in the current parliament. Unfortunately LibDems welched on the deal.

What wasn't predicted was the way the electoral 'map' has changed, assuming it stays or continues to change up to 2015GE.

The reason is down to voters moving their allegiance between parties in hitherto unseen ways. Votes from Con and Lab to UKIP, LibDems to Labour/ Green/ even UKIP amazingly, Labour to SNP all just some examples.

Wind into that equation there increasingly seems to be a % of voters who have hitherto been disconnected and not voted intending to turn out this time. It varies from survey to survey whether this last effect will be significant or not as often people have the intention but the flesh is weak on the day.

This all means that the old prediction models using national percentages are effectively broken. Psephologists aka political polling wonks are trying to figure out what the hell is going on and everyone has ddifferent ideas aroynd a theme.

There is only one word that can sum up the 2015GE as things sit at the moment, unpredictable.

:Michael Ashcroft: The polls are snapshots not predictions. :/Michael Ashcroft:

[Scuffers]

OK, at what point do we think that the wild outside chance of UKIP gaining significant seats is likely?

we have been told for a couple of weeks about the green surge, but after the weekends interviews, I think that's killed off that idea, the Tory defection has pretty spectacularly backfired, Cleggs not been heard from for a while, and Miliband is still trying to weaponize the NHS.

in the mean time, the MSM are burying stories faster than you can say boo, and don't really have a handle on what to say at the moment.

could this be a re-run of the EU elections?

[FiF]

Scuffers, I know this goes directly against what I wrote in the post above yours, namely inferring stuff from national %, but if, repeat if, that figure in the Survation/Mirror poll is representative at 23% then on the morning of May 8 there would be some very sick faces around the place, not least on here and the other thread.

What the actual numbers would be I don't know haven't worked them through.

[allergictocheese]

I'm not sure UKIP will have the numbers to achieve MPs in very many constituencies at all. Polling a national percentage of the vote doesn't equate to winning individual seats. The two MPs they've gained haven't been organic growth; rather they've been incumbents with pre-existing, significant majorities, who knowing that have taken a calculated decision to switch parties.

Has there yet been a UKIP MP who wasn't already in his seat with another party?

Secondly, UKIP suffers from losses and defections (take a look at the MEPs). Even were they to gain seats, I wouldn't be confident UKIP could retain control of all of them for any length of time.

[turbobloke]

allergictocheese said:

I'm not sure UKIP will have the numbers to achieve MPs in very many constituencies at all.

Vague (not sure; what's 'very many') and probably wishful thinking.

What numbers do they have? What numbers would they need for the low-end predictions (25 seats) and what numbers would they need for the high-end predictions (100 seats)?

[Scuffers]

allergictocheese said:

Even were they to gain seats, I wouldn't be confident UKIP could retain control of all of them for any length of time.

that's actually a very salient point...

it's a double edged sword, total party discipline (whipped to death) or a party that allows for freedom of expression...

[allergictocheese]

turbobloke said:

Vague (not sure; what's 'very many') and probably wishful thinking.

What numbers do they have? What numbers would they need for the low-end predictions (25 seats) and what numbers would they need for the high-end predictions (100 seats)?

I don't think they'll get into double figures.

We have a system where it's possible to get reasonable percentages of the vote yet no seats. It relies on individual constituencies to deliver MPs, not share of a national vote. I don't see many places where UKIP are going to either steal from the Liberals or organically displace Labour/Conservatives.

[Esseesse]

allergictocheese said:

turbobloke said:

Vague (not sure; what's 'very many') and probably wishful thinking.

What numbers do they have? What numbers would they need for the low-end predictions (25 seats) and what numbers would they need for the high-end predictions (100 seats)?

I don't think they'll get into double figures.

We have a system where it's possible to get reasonable percentages of the vote yet no seats. It relies on individual constituencies to deliver MPs, not share of a national vote. I don't see many places where UKIP are going to either steal from the Liberals or organically displace Labour/Conservatives.

I agree. There are plenty of projections around where even with a generous result they pick up around 5 seats.

[turbobloke]

Esseesse said:

allergictocheese said:

turbobloke said:

Vague (not sure; what's 'very many') and probably wishful thinking.

What numbers do they have? What numbers would they need for the low-end predictions (25 seats) and what numbers would they need for the high-end predictions (100 seats)?

I don't think they'll get into double figures.

We have a system where it's possible to get reasonable percentages of the vote yet no seats. It relies on individual constituencies to deliver MPs, not share of a national vote. I don't see many places where UKIP are going to either steal from the Liberals or organically displace Labour/Conservatives.

I agree. There are plenty of projections around where even with a generous result they pick up around 5 seats.

There are other projections which look to 25-100 seats. Polls are generating wide variation in levels of UKIP support. There is still (just) time for CMD to wake up, but chances are slim, and Greece may yet throw a wild card/joker into the mix.

We shall see soon enough.

http://news.sky.com/story/1351484/ukip-could-win-o...

Recently:

Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
Ashcroft – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9%
Survation – CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3%

[Digga]

Wallace is already hedging his bets and considering his next move if the GE is a disaster. Spotted here yesterday studying proctology.

[Mattygooner]

He fking useless, I only hope this country doesn't hand us back to Labour and this idiot.

Currently on sky talking about NHS, why is he allowed to get asked a question and just reply good question and listen to another question, then another and then ask the third guy to tell us his thoughts about something whilst his team prepare an answer for him on his glass prompter.

Just answer the question!

[Munter]

Digga said:

Wallace is already hedging his bets and considering his next move if the GE is a disaster. Spotted here yesterday studying proctology.

Does he only own one Purple tie?

I was just searching for a pic of the muppet being manipulated by the strings from above, and almost every result he was wearing that purple tie. (Or choking on a bacon butty, or looking gormless in some other way)

[Digga]

Munter said:

Does he only own one Purple tie?

TBF, I think ties on elastic are fairly few and far between these days.

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

There are other projections which look to 25-100 seats.

Link(s)?

[pilchardthecat]

I think it's fair to say that UKIP will under-perform in the surveys versus how they will actually do in the election itself, due to the confluence of anti-EU = rampant racist