UK General Election 2015
Discussion
pilchardthecat said:
I think it's fair to say that UKIP will under-perform in the surveys versus how they will actually do in the election itself, due to the confluence of anti-EU = rampant racist
I get the impression there may be an element of that; given the media and the two main parties are all but saying you're a baby eating fascist if you vote UKIP, there's going to be some reticence if you get a call from a pollster.turbobloke said:
Greg66 said:
turbobloke said:
There are other projections which look to 25-100 seats.
Link(s)? Did you read any further?!
So if I understand that correctly, the point is that if there was a swing of 34% to UKIP everywhere in the South of England this May - far more than it saw in Clacton - then it could win over 100 seats.
A swing of 34%.
That's a projection in the same way that one could say "if everyone voted UKIP, then UKIP could have all the seats in Parliament".
Greg66 said:
turbobloke said:
Greg66 said:
turbobloke said:
There are other projections which look to 25-100 seats.
Link(s)? Did you read any further?!
Greg66 said:
So if I understand that correctly, the point is that if there was a swing of 34% to UKIP everywhere in the South of England this May - far more than it saw in Clacton - then it could win over 100 seats.
A swing of 34%.
A swing of 34%.
Link I posted said:
Support for UKIP has surged to 25% in the polls and the party could win a remarkable 128 MPs in a general election, experts have claimed.
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday found a repeat of the Clacton by-election result next May would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband at No 10.
Labour and the Tories are both on 31% while the Liberal Democrats are on 8%, according to the research for the newspaper.
Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.
However, private polling analysis seen by The Sunday Times puts UKIP on course to win a maximum of 25 MPs, which is still far higher than earlier predictions.
A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday found a repeat of the Clacton by-election result next May would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband at No 10.
Labour and the Tories are both on 31% while the Liberal Democrats are on 8%, according to the research for the newspaper.
Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.
However, private polling analysis seen by The Sunday Times puts UKIP on course to win a maximum of 25 MPs, which is still far higher than earlier predictions.
Greg66 said:
That's a projection in the same way that one could say "if everyone voted UKIP, then UKIP could have all the seats in Parliament".
It doesn't appear to be the same as that (!) but feel free to take it up with Sky/ST journos and their consultant experts.turbobloke said:
Greg66 said:
turbobloke said:
There are other projections which look to 25-100 seats.
Link(s)? Did you read any further?!
The problem as I see it today, which tries to cover in the earlier posts and the answer to Scuffers, the unpredictability makes it difficult to be certain. But when you take these national figures and translate them into seats, dependent on how that is done you can get anything from zero seats, unlikely in my opinion, to double figures, just, again unlikely in my opinion. So currently with national figures bouncing around in the mid teens, possibly low teens, it's most likely to be low single figures.
If you ignore the extremes of the range, the error margins if you like, as the national support figure rises into higher teens, then this doesn't immediately transform into many extra seats, still in single figures, but what does happen is that a lot of seats where UKIP will imho finish second in May become closer and closer contests, coupled with in other seats a detrimental effect on other parties, and affecting results that way.
Once the national support rises much above 20% and certainly towards 23/24% then it's clear that more and more of those second places potentially turn into UKIP gains or too close to call.
On a separate note, how long will it be before fixed term Parliaments Act is repealed? Any takers?
Isn't this the relevant part:
Link you posted said:
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday: "The 25% level represents a 22-point increase on the 3% the party won in 2010.
"If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.
"But today's poll suggests UKIP's support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK - by a staggering 34 points.
"If that level was recorded throughout the South, UKIP could win as many as 128 seats,
"If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.
"But today's poll suggests UKIP's support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK - by a staggering 34 points.
"If that level was recorded throughout the South, UKIP could win as many as 128 seats,
Don't think that Ashcroft's more targeted polling has shown that much swing in any of the groups has it? FIF, you've been following them more closely than I - have you seen any evidence of that?
Interesting that Labour have only been ahead in 1 out the last 6 polls. They must be worried, as it has been them ahead in 5 out of 6. Statistical anomaly or trend? Time will tell
Beginning to look like UKIP have stopped losing ground in the polls as well. Though again whether that is a trend or a blip is unclear
Interesting that Labour have only been ahead in 1 out the last 6 polls. They must be worried, as it has been them ahead in 5 out of 6. Statistical anomaly or trend? Time will tell
Beginning to look like UKIP have stopped losing ground in the polls as well. Though again whether that is a trend or a blip is unclear
FiF said:
Mind you one wonders about voters being too dumb to vote or offer their voting intentions.
When questioned about the environment.
FFS! Really!!!!!!!
Gives up.
I think I mentioned the danger of an uneducated electorate previously....When questioned about the environment.
FFS! Really!!!!!!!
Gives up.
....I wonder if this is a chance to use "EastenderdaleStreet" for good rather than evil
An interesting piece on Sky News today, the Tories require an 11% lead over Labour to form a parliamentary majority of 1. Labour on the other hand only require a 3% lead over the Tories for an outright majority.
Labour will be the biggest party in the next parliament even if they win a 3% smaller share of the vote than the Tories.
This is down to the unequal distribution of MPs. Using the 2010 results, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all over-represented in the House of Commons at the expense of England. Wales has 25% more MPs than it should (40 instead of 32). In addition the English constituencies are also unequally distributed with the North East and West Midlands over-represented and London and the South East under-represented. The situation has got worse since 2010 with parts of London and the South East experiencing population growth in excess of 10% but no additional MPs.
If todays constituencies had existed back in 1983, Thatcher would not have won an outright majority (the Tories had a bigger lead over Labour in 2010 than in 1983).
Labour will be the biggest party in the next parliament even if they win a 3% smaller share of the vote than the Tories.
This is down to the unequal distribution of MPs. Using the 2010 results, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all over-represented in the House of Commons at the expense of England. Wales has 25% more MPs than it should (40 instead of 32). In addition the English constituencies are also unequally distributed with the North East and West Midlands over-represented and London and the South East under-represented. The situation has got worse since 2010 with parts of London and the South East experiencing population growth in excess of 10% but no additional MPs.
If todays constituencies had existed back in 1983, Thatcher would not have won an outright majority (the Tories had a bigger lead over Labour in 2010 than in 1983).
Munter said:
Digga said:
Wallace is already hedging his bets and considering his next move if the GE is a disaster. Spotted here yesterday studying proctology.
Does he only own one Purple tie?I was just searching for a pic of the muppet being manipulated by the strings from above, and almost every result he was wearing that purple tie. (Or choking on a bacon butty, or looking gormless in some other way)
You'll see an unusually high number politicians wearing them these days - they've all read the same book on "how to look important".
Once you know to look out for it its another one of those things that says "you're a prick, not a prince!"
McWigglebum4th said:
Or the SNP form a coalition with the tory party if the tory party guarantee independence without a referendum
Which in many ways would be a great result
Unless you can't leave scotland
You're just fWhich in many ways would be a great result
Unless you can't leave scotland
ked, because nobody wants to buy your sthole in the arse-end of nowhere...... Not even VP, who happened to be looking for cheap property in the area - so I'm led to believe ;-)"A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be a “catastrophe” for Britain, the head of one of the UK’s biggest businesses warns.
In a significant blow to Labour’s general election campaign, Stefano Pessina, the boss of Boots, says Mr Miliband’s plan for power is “not helpful for business, not helpful for the country and in the end it probably won’t be helpful for them”."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliba...
In a significant blow to Labour’s general election campaign, Stefano Pessina, the boss of Boots, says Mr Miliband’s plan for power is “not helpful for business, not helpful for the country and in the end it probably won’t be helpful for them”."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliba...
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