UK General Election 2015

[BlackLabel]

twitter said:

Dan Hodges retweeted
Iain ‏@Iain_33 51m51 minutes ago

Tonight's YouGov poll: Conservative 32 -2 Labour 35 +1 Liberal Democrat 7 +1 UKIP 15 +1 Green 6 -1 Other 5

twitter said:

Dan Hodges retweeted
Politico Daily @Politico_Daily · 3 hrs 3 hours ago

Opinium/Observer poll: Conservative 32 +4 Labour 33 Liberal Democrat 5 -2 UKIP 18 -2 Green 6 Other 6

[Richyboy]

BlackLabel said:

"A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be a “catastrophe” for Britain, the head of one of the UK’s biggest businesses warns.
In a significant blow to Labour’s general election campaign, Stefano Pessina, the boss of Boots, says Mr Miliband’s plan for power is “not helpful for business, not helpful for the country and in the end it probably won’t be helpful for them”."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliba...

Boots is shopping for the middle class isn't it like waitrose and M&S? Probably worried that disposable incomes will take a huge blow after labour get in.

[NicD]

Richyboy said:

Boots is shopping for the middle class isn't it like waitrose and M&S? Probably worried that disposable incomes will take a huge blow after labour get in.

Not in my book. Boots is a very long established pharmacy chain, not in the same league as the 'yummy' shops you mention.

[Scuffers]

NicD said:

Richyboy said:

Boots is shopping for the middle class isn't it like waitrose and M&S? Probably worried that disposable incomes will take a huge blow after labour get in.

Not in my book. Boots is a very long established pharmacy chain, not in the same league as the 'yummy' shops you mention.

Not forgetting, the highstreet shops are a relatively small part of the business.

[FiF]

Richyboy said:

BlackLabel said:

"A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be a “catastrophe” for Britain, the head of one of the UK’s biggest businesses warns.
In a significant blow to Labour’s general election campaign, Stefano Pessina, the boss of Boots, says Mr Miliband’s plan for power is “not helpful for business, not helpful for the country and in the end it probably won’t be helpful for them”."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliba...

Boots is shopping for the middle class isn't it like waitrose and M&S? Probably worried that disposable incomes will take a huge blow after labour get in.

Mind you as a resident of Monaco he clearly has different tax issues to the rest of us.

[BlackLabel]

guardian said:

Forecast for May election based on mathematical modelling shows Labour on 291 seats, Tories on 281 and Liberal Democrats on 48

The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.

Whiteley’s forecast, based on mathematical modelling, focuses on what happened to seats in previous election rather than the overall share of the vote and is based on a model developed while the British Election Study was based at Essex. This model successfully predicted the outcomes of the 2005 and 2010 general elections.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/01/2016-general-election-prediction

[turbobloke]

BlackLabel said:

guardian said:

Forecast for May election based on mathematical modelling shows Labour on 291 seats, Tories on 281 and Liberal Democrats on 48

The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.

This model successfully predicted the outcomes of the 2005 and 2010 general elections.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/01/2016-general-election-prediction

Interesting stuff, pity it wasn't around in 1992.

[FiF]

Meanwhile Richard Rose throws his hat into the ring with 2015GE prediction.

SNP surge to hand Cons a victory. While SNP may have enough seats to put Miliband in Downing Street it's too much of a U turn considering they will have just trounced them. Predicts Cameron to call for a vote of confidence in a Conservative government within ten days of the election. If losing Labour have 14 days to get it together, he predicts they won't hack it.

Interesting.




http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scot...

[BlackLabel]

And Ashcroft's latest poll:

lordashcroftpolls said:

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 9%

Monday, 2 February, 2015 in The Ashcroft National Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/ashcroft-national-poll-con-31-lab-31-lib-dem-8-ukip-15-green-9/

Meanwhile over at betfair the prices have switched around in the last 4-6 weeks - Labour used to be slight favourites to get the most seats, now it's the Tories.

[Esseesse]

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

[Gargamel]

National polls are almost always a waste of time.

In any event, Labour traditionally run terrible campaigns compared to the others, I would expect Labour to lose poll support in the final weeks.

Especially if Ed is stupid enough to appear in Live TV debates.

[Wombat3]

Esseesse said:

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

You mean struggle to deliver it?

Could very well be the case.

[Bluebarge]

Esseesse said:

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

Well the Lib Dems would oppose it, so, probably, would Labour, so how would the Conservatives (many of whom are also opposed) push that through on those numbers?

[Esseesse]

Bluebarge said:

Esseesse said:

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

Well the Lib Dems would oppose it, so, probably, would Labour, so how would the Conservatives (many of whom are also opposed) push that through on those numbers?

Sorry, poorly worded. I really meant struggle to get off the hook for it not happening, he will be in a bind either way. I accept that he may not have enough support to push it through, but the majority (including the media if they don't want to) don't think hard enough to understand that.

[Esseesse]

Wombat3 said:

Esseesse said:

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

You mean struggle to deliver it?

Could very well be the case.

He doesn't want to deliver it.

[FiF]

Gargamel said:

National polls are almost always a waste of time.

In any event, Labour traditionally run terrible campaigns compared to the others, I would expect Labour to lose poll support in the final weeks.

Especially if Ed is stupid enough to appear in Live TV debates.

Well yes they are in predicting numbers of seats but useful if you look at trends and then drill down to constituency level.

People are pointing out that just considering polls for England, to have any hope, at this stage Cons need to be just over 10% in the lead. They aren't, not even close.

[Bluebarge]

Esseesse said:

Bluebarge said:

Esseesse said:

If Cameron manages a minority government or coalition, he's surely going to struggle to avoid a 2017 EU referendum.

Well the Lib Dems would oppose it, so, probably, would Labour, so how would the Conservatives (many of whom are also opposed) push that through on those numbers?

Sorry, poorly worded. I really meant struggle to get off the hook for it not happening, he will be in a bind either way. I accept that he may not have enough support to push it through, but the majority (including the media if they don't want to) don't think hard enough to understand that.

Ah, gotcha - amd agreed. Old Dave does have a habit of painting himself into a corner doesn't he? - Scottish Referendum, EU referendum, making such a hoo-haa over Juncker as head of the EU Commission - all battles that have arisen from a "cunning plan" that a wiser head would probably have avoided.

[FiF]

On the issue of a referendum, people shouldn't hang all their hopes on one.

Longish article which argues, correctly, that the EU question is a complicated multifaceted question but a referendum distills it down into a binary decision. That it should give the opportunity for an open debate to resolve many issues and crystallise thoughts, but almost certainly won't. Plus a vote for either in or out won't resolve the tensions.

It's on pdf, virus checked ok.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-23...

[longblackcoat]

FiF said:

On the issue of a referendum, people shouldn't hang all their hopes on one.

Longish article which argues, correctly, that the EU question is a complicated multifaceted question but a referendum distills it down into a binary decision. That it should give the opportunity for an open debate to resolve many issues and crystallise thoughts, but almost certainly won't. Plus a vote for either in or out won't resolve the tensions.

It's on pdf, virus checked ok.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-23...

A good article, and one that goes to supporting my view that an EU referendum is the answer to the wrong question. I certainly don't believe that an EU referendum will settle British politics.

Thanks for posting this.

[JustAnotherLogin]

FiF said:

Meanwhile Richard Rose throws his hat into the ring with 2015GE prediction.

SNP surge to hand Cons a victory. While SNP may have enough seats to put Miliband in Downing Street it's too much of a U turn considering they will have just trounced them. Predicts Cameron to call for a vote of confidence in a Conservative government within ten days of the election. If losing Labour have 14 days to get it together, he predicts they won't hack it.

Interesting.




http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scot...

The number of seats for each party is I believe a complete guess at present. But if (big if) those numbers did happen, personally I don't believe that Cameron would call for a vote of no confidence, nor should he. The reason is that traditionally (on the few events where it has happened), if a 2nd election is called quickly, the party that the electorate believe is responsible for the failure form a givt is punished. If he calls no-confidence that vote I think the electorate would blame him for not trying to form a govt and he would lose on the 2nd vote,

If he tries, but fails - whether due to labour weakness, SNP obstinacy or UKIP intransigence, then he will have a chance. If he goes too quickly he will fail