UK General Election 2015

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Discussion

FiF

44,092 posts

251 months

Tuesday 10th February 2015
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Yeah we aren't a hotbed of criminal and anti social behaviour. Litter and dog poop excepted.

JustAnotherLogin

Original Poster:

1,127 posts

121 months

Tuesday 10th February 2015
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FiF said:
Just had a rozzer on foot patrol round our way. Last time this happened was in the run up to GE2010. Coincidence?
have you put up your UKIP poster? That would attract attention keen to infringe your rights

Axionknight

8,505 posts

135 months

Tuesday 10th February 2015
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U
JustAnotherLogin said:
have you put up your UKIP poster? That would attract attention keen to infringe your rights
Considering the budget cuts imposed on our policing force by the Tory led coalition I doubt the bobby has time to deal with such trivial matters - I wonder if he'd have time to discuss the increasing UK foreign aid budget, though, which has been protected whilst frontline UK services suffer.

He might care, but very few in the conservative party are interested considering the tiny number of their MPs who voted against the aid budget increases which are now enshrined in law during these austere times - five people, if I recall correctly.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

274 months

Tuesday 10th February 2015
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JustAnotherLogin said:
FiF said:
Just had a rozzer on foot patrol round our way. Last time this happened was in the run up to GE2010. Coincidence?
have you put up your UKIP poster? That would attract attention keen to infringe your rights
like this you mean?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/09/wil...

FiF

44,092 posts

251 months

Tuesday 10th February 2015
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JustAnotherLogin said:
FiF said:
Just had a rozzer on foot patrol round our way. Last time this happened was in the run up to GE2010. Coincidence?
have you put up your UKIP poster? That would attract attention keen to infringe your rights
Go away.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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theindependent said:
General election: New poll shows big gains for Labour and Tories – at expense of Lib Dems and Ukip
theindependent said:
A new poll suggests that support for Ukip has fallen below 10 per cent for the first time since November 2013, as Nigel Farage prepared to launch his election campaign.

As the party leader gave a speech in Essex in which he declared that Ukip was “picking up support from across every social spectrum”, an Ipsos Mori poll for the Evening Standard showed the party down two points at nine per cent.

The Lib Dems were also down in the poll at six per cent – its lowest level for 25 years. Nick Clegg admitted to listeners on LBC Radio that his party had “clearly taken a hit in the national polls”.

Gaining from both their losses were the Tories and Labour, with Ed Miliband’s party up two and now firmly leading the way on 36 per cent. The Conservatives gained a single point, up to 34 per cent.

Nigel Farage’s own personal ratings have also received a hit, down five points since the last Ipsos Mori survey – but it is worth noting that half of voters said they could yet change their minds between now and the general election in May.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/has-the-ukip-bubble-burst-new-poll-shows-big-gains-for-labour-and-tories-at-expense-of-lib-dems-and-nigel-farages-party-10041358.html



https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...



JustAnotherLogin

Original Poster:

1,127 posts

121 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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I had noticed that the minor parties support seems to be 'weaker' in Ashcroft's polls. In particular when you get to the definitely will vote that way it tends to fade - more so for LD and Greens than UKIP, but noticeable.

Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense

Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.

So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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JustAnotherLogin said:
I had noticed that the minor parties support seems to be 'weaker' in Ashcroft's polls. In particular when you get to the definitely will vote that way it tends to fade - more so for LD and Greens than UKIP, but noticeable.

Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense

Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.

So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May
Getting 'missing' voters back will also be a factor. Which is why Labour are so worried about this:

"1m voters lost from electoral roll, says Ed Miliband "

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/16/ed...


Scuffers

20,887 posts

274 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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I understand they run courses in tower hamlets to help with this!

FiF

44,092 posts

251 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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That article is wrong where it claims that universities were prevented from registering students to vote. Sheffield Hallam did nothing, while Sheffield University proper sorted it at registration beginning of academic year. Details recorded at registration passed to the council.


http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/sheff...

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/registration/newstuden...

Justayellowbadge

37,057 posts

242 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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I've spoken to hundreds of prospective voters in London boroughs over the last few weeks.

some surprising results to me.

UKIP support really not that strong.

A tory/UKIP coalition ties with Labour/SNP coalition as nightmare scenarios.

More than a few previously LD voters going Tory to avoid either of the above.

Labour strong amongst older lifelong voters, but Milliband a concern for younger voters even if they identify as Labour.

The above anecdotal, I've done no data crunching, just the feeling I was picking up.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

274 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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If students are to stupid to find their NI number, they're clearly too stupid to vote.

FiF

44,092 posts

251 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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Justayellowbadge said:
I've spoken to hundreds of prospective voters in London boroughs over the last few weeks.

some surprising results to me.

UKIP support really not that strong.

A tory/UKIP coalition ties with Labour/SNP coalition as nightmare scenarios.

More than a few previously LD voters going Tory to avoid either of the above.

Labour strong amongst older lifelong voters, but Milliband a concern for younger voters even if they identify as Labour.

The above anecdotal, I've done no data crunching, just the feeling I was picking up.
UKIP support in London boroughs is abysmal. That's been consistent since before the European elections and not expected to change.

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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Scuffers said:
If students are to stupid to find their NI number, they're clearly too stupid to vote.
scratchchin

dandarez

13,286 posts

283 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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Justayellowbadge said:
I've spoken to hundreds of prospective voters in London boroughs over the last few weeks.

some surprising results to me.

UKIP support really not that strong.

A tory/UKIP coalition ties with Labour/SNP coalition as nightmare scenarios.

More than a few previously LD voters going Tory to avoid either of the above.

Labour strong amongst older lifelong voters, but Milliband a concern for younger voters even if they identify as Labour.

The above anecdotal, I've done no data crunching, just the feeling I was picking up.
That is very interesting JAYB, Ukip support really not that strong.

In fact, it's bloody encouraging! Kipper support in London boroughs - even I'm scared to mention Kipper in London - is non-existent, so I see 'really not that strong' indicating a surge! biggrin

foliedouce

3,067 posts

231 months

Friday 13th February 2015
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Scuffers said:
I understand they run courses in tower hamlets to help with this!
And probably put on free buses to the polling station!

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Saturday 14th February 2015
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JustAnotherLogin said:
I had noticed that the minor parties support seems to be 'weaker' in Ashcroft's polls. In particular when you get to the definitely will vote that way it tends to fade - more so for LD and Greens than UKIP, but noticeable.

Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense

Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.

So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May
Things are definitely looking up for Dave's lot. Support for UKIP is dropping and it now looks as if the Tories will be the major beneficiaries of the Lib Dem slump.

That said, Labour are still doing better in the key marginals (if opinion polls are to be believed).

"A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour continues to hold on to its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal swing seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election in May. Labour’s vote share is at 40% with the Conservatives on 31%. Both parties were on 37% in these seats at the last General Election."

http://comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-marginal-seats-...

dandarez

13,286 posts

283 months

Sunday 15th February 2015
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BlackLabel said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
I had noticed that the minor parties support seems to be 'weaker' in Ashcroft's polls. In particular when you get to the definitely will vote that way it tends to fade - more so for LD and Greens than UKIP, but noticeable.

Thinking about demographics and possible tactical voting by some I guess it makes sense

Also interesting to note the other differences. Like younger people tend to favour Labour, the ones that support the Tories are more likely to say they will definitely vote.

So weather could be a factor for many aspects in May
Things are definitely looking up for Dave's lot. Support for UKIP is dropping and it now looks as if the Tories will be the major beneficiaries of the Lib Dem slump.

That said, Labour are still doing better in the key marginals (if opinion polls are to be believed).

"A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour continues to hold on to its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal swing seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election in May. Labour’s vote share is at 40% with the Conservatives on 31%. Both parties were on 37% in these seats at the last General Election."

http://comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-marginal-seats-...
A week is a long time in politics ...we've got nearly 3 months still to go. A 'lot' can happen in that time and I don't just mean Milepede and CallMeDave keeping their fingers very, very tightly crossed.

FiF

44,092 posts

251 months

Sunday 15th February 2015
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What's somewhat amusing is that not so long ago someone picked up on the poll which had UKIP at 23% and they were criticised for picking what seems to be an outlier.

Someone else picks up an what is an outlier at the other end of the spectrum and this means things are looking up for Dave apparently.

It does seem as if aggregate support for the two main parties has picked up few percent from the depths where they were around 60% and slightly below.

Lab still in lead though not by the amount they should be if things follow a typical path. But this isn't going to be a typical election so maybe that's a poor guide.

But thought it was worth picking up on the consistency of people grasping at anything they favour.

Axionknight

8,505 posts

135 months

Wednesday 18th February 2015
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