UK General Election 2015
Discussion
Munter said:
Bluebarge said:
HonestIago said:
By deliberately downplaying UKIP support
Where is your evidence that Yougov is doing this?Online there appear to be plenty of rabid UKIP supporters willing to throw themselves on any sword going.
In the real world I meet people who emphasize with bit and bobs that UKIP talk about. But don't actually want to vote for them.
HonestIago said:
I am expecting a very strong General Election vote share for UKIP of 20%+ (possibly 25%) and hopefully a decent number of seats. IMO the likes of Yougov polling are designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect it. By deliberately downplaying UKIP support they attempt to give credence to the idea of it being a wasted vote or, worse, a vote for Labour.
There is no way on Earth UKIP will get anywhere near 20% let alone 25%!Voting UKIP is just going to result in Labour getting into power. Hopefully UKIP voters aren't that stupid and will use their vote wisely. If they don't then God help us.
gregf40 said:
HonestIago said:
I am expecting a very strong General Election vote share for UKIP of 20%+ (possibly 25%) and hopefully a decent number of seats. IMO the likes of Yougov polling are designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect it. By deliberately downplaying UKIP support they attempt to give credence to the idea of it being a wasted vote or, worse, a vote for Labour.
There is no way on Earth UKIP will get anywhere near 20% let alone 25%!Voting UKIP is just going to result in Labour getting into power. Hopefully UKIP voters aren't that stupid and will use their vote wisely. If they don't then God help us.
gregf40 said:
Voting UKIP is just going to result in Labour getting into power. Hopefully UKIP voters aren't that stupid and will use their vote wisely. If they don't then God help us.
That old chestnut 
Clacton was even funnier, when Cameron was pleading for labour voters to tactically vote
Esseesse said:
gregf40 said:
HonestIago said:
I am expecting a very strong General Election vote share for UKIP of 20%+ (possibly 25%) and hopefully a decent number of seats. IMO the likes of Yougov polling are designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect it. By deliberately downplaying UKIP support they attempt to give credence to the idea of it being a wasted vote or, worse, a vote for Labour.
There is no way on Earth UKIP will get anywhere near 20% let alone 25%!Voting UKIP is just going to result in Labour getting into power. Hopefully UKIP voters aren't that stupid and will use their vote wisely. If they don't then God help us.
Perhaps the UKIP voters that you'd assume would care about Labour not getting into power want UKIP in power even though they know (or most of them do) that it's not going to happen and have a twisted, masochistic view that somehow five years of Miliband will bring about a miraculous transformation of the Tory Party into a much larger clone of UKIP that will win the 2020 election, take us out of the EU, while quickly achieving bilateral trading arrangements with every member state we care about and reduce immigration to a small number of highly skilled people per year.
Esseesse said:
However, one thing that may be supportive of Iago's position is the line taken by Mr Farage. He seems rather bullish, at a time when you would expect him to be quite modest about expectations.
Show me a politician who has ever downplayed their chances pior to an election. UKIP relies on Farage to look all bubbly and full of bonhomie because there is no-one else in that party that wouldn't scare the children.I think you may be right about the number of seats. Where I take issue with HonestIago's statement is that Yougov are DELIBERATELY downplaying UKIP support. They may be under-estimating support (pollsters sometimes get it wrong) but to suggest that they are trying to engineeer a particular result is an extraordinary suggestion which, if repeated anywhere that mattered, would have Yougov's lawyers drafting a libel writ and HonestIago nervously checking his house insurance to see if he has legal cover that would prevent him from being wallet-raped by big City lawyers.
Esseesse said:
gregf40 said:
HonestIago said:
I am expecting a very strong General Election vote share for UKIP of 20%+ (possibly 25%) and hopefully a decent number of seats. IMO the likes of Yougov polling are designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect it. By deliberately downplaying UKIP support they attempt to give credence to the idea of it being a wasted vote or, worse, a vote for Labour.
There is no way on Earth UKIP will get anywhere near 20% let alone 25%!Voting UKIP is just going to result in Labour getting into power. Hopefully UKIP voters aren't that stupid and will use their vote wisely. If they don't then God help us.
It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
Bluebarge said:
HonestIago said:
By deliberately downplaying UKIP support
Where is your evidence that Yougov is doing this?Munter said:
I think there is a "living in a bubble" problem around UKIP support online and the difference in the real world.
Online there appear to be plenty of rabid UKIP supporters willing to throw themselves on any sword going.
In the real world I meet people who emphasize with bit and bobs that UKIP talk about. But don't actually want to vote for them.
Why would UKIP supporters be any more vocal online? Have you any evidence for this? Did Chukka Umunna not claim that UKIP supporters struggled to even use the internet?! Online there appear to be plenty of rabid UKIP supporters willing to throw themselves on any sword going.
In the real world I meet people who emphasize with bit and bobs that UKIP talk about. But don't actually want to vote for them.
In the real world people are sick and tired of the current Westminster merry-go-round sending us from one national gurgle down the plughole to the next. Support for UKIP will be much higher than anticipated by the London media elite IMO.
PS "empathise" is the word you were looking for I think.
HonestIago said:
As far as I know, Yougov do not even prompt for UKIP in their polling. They only ask if you'd vote LibLabCon or "other". Do you not see that as a deliberate means of showing a lower level of support for UKIP?
Complete rubbish.This is the actual question from the Yougov poll: If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Yougov said:
When we ask voting intention for Westminster elections we prompt people with the names of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the SNP and Plaid Cymru or "some other party". People selecting some other party are then shown a second screen offering the choice of other smaller political parties or "other".
HonestIago said:
Why would UKIP supporters be any more vocal online?
It's quite a common effect for all sorts of "groups". The same reason people "troll" online. They feel free to express opinions stronger than they would in the real world. And they feed off the comments of others who post similar opinions. Suddenly they think the whole world thinks the same as they do....until they step outside and have a conversation, and suddenly their opinions are not so clean cut.HonestIago said:
I am expecting a very strong General Election vote share for UKIP of 20%+ (possibly 25%) and hopefully a decent number of seats. IMO the likes of Yougov polling are designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect it. By deliberately downplaying UKIP support they attempt to give credence to the idea of it being a wasted vote or, worse, a vote for Labour.
10-12% - possibly as much as 15% but no more than that. On the low side, could easily be less than 10% IMO.
gregf40 said:
Obviously not as a (relatively) radical right wing party will never get into power in the UK. It's just throwing away a vote.
It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
It can, but when it does it will not seem relatively radical.It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
The current setup looks radically left wing from the perspective of anything further away than 2 decades ago.
Esseesse said:
gregf40 said:
Obviously not as a (relatively) radical right wing party will never get into power in the UK. It's just throwing away a vote.
It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
It can, but when it does it will not seem relatively radical.It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
The current setup looks radically left wing from the perspective of anything further away than 2 decades ago.
The parties have not dragged the electorate to where they are, quite the reverse.
HonestIago said:
Munter said:
I think there is a "living in a bubble" problem around UKIP support online and the difference in the real world.
Online there appear to be plenty of rabid UKIP supporters willing to throw themselves on any sword going.
In the real world I meet people who emphasize with bit and bobs that UKIP talk about. But don't actually want to vote for them.
Why would UKIP supporters be any more vocal online? Have you any evidence for this? Did Chukka Umunna not claim that UKIP supporters struggled to even use the internet?! Online there appear to be plenty of rabid UKIP supporters willing to throw themselves on any sword going.
In the real world I meet people who emphasize with bit and bobs that UKIP talk about. But don't actually want to vote for them.
In the real world people are sick and tired of the current Westminster merry-go-round sending us from one national gurgle down the plughole to the next. Support for UKIP will be much higher than anticipated by the London media elite IMO.
PS "empathise" is the word you were looking for I think.
Kippers say there's no difference between the three main parties now
Yet in the real world "LibLabCon" (as Kippers are so fond of referring to them) poll in excess of 70% between them
Ukip polls 15% - ish
So if there really is no difference between the others (as we are assured there isn't by the kippers) then who is in the minority and who is out of step?
Can't have it both ways.
Wombat3 said:
Esseesse said:
gregf40 said:
Obviously not as a (relatively) radical right wing party will never get into power in the UK. It's just throwing away a vote.
It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
It can, but when it does it will not seem relatively radical.It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
The current setup looks radically left wing from the perspective of anything further away than 2 decades ago.
The parties have not dragged the electorate to where they are, quite the reverse.
Esseesse said:
Wombat3 said:
Esseesse said:
gregf40 said:
Obviously not as a (relatively) radical right wing party will never get into power in the UK. It's just throwing away a vote.
It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
It can, but when it does it will not seem relatively radical.It's one thing supporting them...it's another voting for them.
The current setup looks radically left wing from the perspective of anything further away than 2 decades ago.
The parties have not dragged the electorate to where they are, quite the reverse.
Wombat3 said:
Possibly not but it addresses the accusation that is so often made about parties "abandoning their core vote". They havn't they've followed them. Those that feel abandoned are simply not the core (contrary to what they would have us believe).
That'll be why Conservative party membership has collapsed under Cameron then.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff