Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3
Discussion
hidetheelephants said:
Slightly hysterical article in The Hootsmon; "Renewables drain our resources".
mybrainhurts said:
Hysterical? If those numbers are right, crazy just went crazier.
So, does anyone know how accurate they are?Switched Radio 4 on in the car earlier, to catch the last few words of interviewee Gavin Schmidt....Can't say for sure if anything is a record, but the trend is what's important and the trend is very definitely upwards....
So, there you have it, the BBC on theup down again.
BBC once again on the cutting edge of down...
So, there you have it, the BBC on the
BBC once again on the cutting edge of down...
It's amazing how many people can't grasp that if you are on the top of a hill, and you stop climbing, you are still on top of the hill. Your height doesn't decrease just because you have stopped climbing.
So 14 of the 15 'warmest' years on record, however 'they' have chosen to define 'warmest', have occurred this century supposedly, that's what you would expect if there had been warming (for any reason or combination of reasons) that had stopped, or more likely, the way the data is being measured/processed in these latter years has produced a step change when compared to older data.
So 14 of the 15 'warmest' years on record, however 'they' have chosen to define 'warmest', have occurred this century supposedly, that's what you would expect if there had been warming (for any reason or combination of reasons) that had stopped, or more likely, the way the data is being measured/processed in these latter years has produced a step change when compared to older data.
Mr GrimNasty said:
It's amazing how many people can't grasp that if you are on the top of a hill, and you stop climbing, you are still on top of the hill. Your height doesn't decrease just because you have stopped climbing.
So 14 of the 15 'warmest' years on record, however 'they' have chosen to define 'warmest', have occurred this century supposedly, that's what you would expect if there had been warming (for any reason or combination of reasons) that had stopped, or more likely, the way the data is being measured/processed in these latter years has produced a step change when compared to older data.
At a guess you might be interested in this:So 14 of the 15 'warmest' years on record, however 'they' have chosen to define 'warmest', have occurred this century supposedly, that's what you would expect if there had been warming (for any reason or combination of reasons) that had stopped, or more likely, the way the data is being measured/processed in these latter years has produced a step change when compared to older data.
2014: Global Temperature Stalls Another Year
Global Warming Pause Continues Despite Warm Year
Dr David Whitehouse, the GWPF's Science Editor, comments on the latest set of 2014 global temperature data and misleading claims.
The addition of 2014 global temperature data confirms that the post-1997 standstill seen in global annual average surface temperature has continued for one more year making it now about 17 years in duration.
Global surface temperature 1997-2014 - NasaGiss data
According to the Nasa global temperature database 2014 was technically a record “beating” 2010 by the small margin of 0.02 deg C. The NASA press release is highly misleading saying that 2014 is a record without giving the actual 2014 figure, or any other year, or its associated error.
In reality of course it is no record at all as the error of the measurements is about +/- 0.1 deg C showing NasaGiss’ statement to go against the normal treatment of observational data and its errors. Talk of a record is therefore scientifically and statistically meaningless.
Interestingly the December 2013-November 2014 NasaGiss figure was not the highest meaning that the “record” for 2014 merely depended on if December 2014 was warmer than December 2013. The warm year that was 2014 has been attributed to exceptional conditions in the north-east Pacific, that is not directly due to “global warming.”
The BEST reanalysis consortium have also reported their findings which are similar and their interpretation is in stark contrast to Nasa’s:
“The global surface temperature average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record.”
The only conclusion to be drawn from the addition of 2014 data is that the post-1997 standstill seen in global annual average surface temperature has continued for one more year making it now about 17 years in duration. This is the opposite of what is claimed in the Nasa press release.
It is clear beyond doubt by now that there is a growing discrepancy between computer climate projections and real-world data that questions their ability to produce meaningful projections about future climatic conditions.
Contact: Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF, 16 January 2015
17 years unless you take McKitrick's analysis in which case it's 19 years up.
Just for you TB..... 
@BarackObama: It's official: 2014 was the hottest year on record. http://t.co/u5ihOEufy5 It's time to #ActOnClimate.
@BarackObama: It's official: 2014 was the hottest year on record. http://t.co/u5ihOEufy5 It's time to #ActOnClimate.
hidetheelephants said:
It's worse than we thought.
Lots of Vinerism today, although it's not lying.
I can see what you did there Lots of Vinerism today, although it's not lying.
Mention of Viner calls for a pearoast, the original was courtesy of chris watton.
Sean Thomas said:
Whither the weather? As you may have heard, a conference of national forecasters assembled this week in Exeter: to discuss the future of the British climate, following the spate of harsher than expected winters, and unusually wet summers, since 2007.
Already, commentators are asking if global warming is to blame. In particular, some are wondering if the direction of the Jet Stream is being altered by Arctic ice melt. Others are speculating that natural variations, such as the “Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation”, might be responsible for recent evolutions.
However, most of this reportage has been second-hand. Unprecedentedly, I had direct access to the meteorologists concerned, as I was in Exeter in spirit form, and I managed to speak to the principal actors.
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
Startled by this sobering analysis, I moved on to Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director of NCAS at the University of Reading. Professor Sutton said that many scientists are, as of this moment, examining the complex patterns in the North Atlantic, and trying to work out whether the current run of inclement European winters will persist.
When pressed on the particular outlook for the British Isles. Professor Sutton shook his head, moaned eerily unto the heavens, and stuffed his fingers into the entrails of a recently disembowelled chicken, bought fresh from Waitrose in Teignmouth.
Hurling the still-beating heart of the chicken into a shallow copper salver, Professor Sutton inhaled the aroma of burning incense, then told the Telegraph: “The seven towers of Agamemnon tremble. Much is the discord in the latitude of Gemini. When, when cry the sirens of doom and love. Speckly showers on Tuesday.”
It’s a pretty stark analysis, and not without merit. There are plenty of climate change scientists who are equally forthright on the possibilities of change, or no change, and of more hot, or less hot, or of rain, or no rain, or of Britain turning into the Sahara by next weekend, or instead becoming a freezing cold Frostyworld ruled by a strange, glistening ice-queen – crucially, it all depends on the time of day you ask them, and whether or not they had asparagus the day before.
So who are we to believe? For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become "a very rare and exciting event".
However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.
Already, commentators are asking if global warming is to blame. In particular, some are wondering if the direction of the Jet Stream is being altered by Arctic ice melt. Others are speculating that natural variations, such as the “Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation”, might be responsible for recent evolutions.
However, most of this reportage has been second-hand. Unprecedentedly, I had direct access to the meteorologists concerned, as I was in Exeter in spirit form, and I managed to speak to the principal actors.
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
Startled by this sobering analysis, I moved on to Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director of NCAS at the University of Reading. Professor Sutton said that many scientists are, as of this moment, examining the complex patterns in the North Atlantic, and trying to work out whether the current run of inclement European winters will persist.
When pressed on the particular outlook for the British Isles. Professor Sutton shook his head, moaned eerily unto the heavens, and stuffed his fingers into the entrails of a recently disembowelled chicken, bought fresh from Waitrose in Teignmouth.
Hurling the still-beating heart of the chicken into a shallow copper salver, Professor Sutton inhaled the aroma of burning incense, then told the Telegraph: “The seven towers of Agamemnon tremble. Much is the discord in the latitude of Gemini. When, when cry the sirens of doom and love. Speckly showers on Tuesday.”
It’s a pretty stark analysis, and not without merit. There are plenty of climate change scientists who are equally forthright on the possibilities of change, or no change, and of more hot, or less hot, or of rain, or no rain, or of Britain turning into the Sahara by next weekend, or instead becoming a freezing cold Frostyworld ruled by a strange, glistening ice-queen – crucially, it all depends on the time of day you ask them, and whether or not they had asparagus the day before.
So who are we to believe? For a final word, I turned to the greatest climate change scientist of all, Dr David Viner, one-time senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, who predicted in 2000 that, within a few years, winter snowfall would become "a very rare and exciting event".
However, he was trapped under a glacier in Stockport, so was unable to comment at the time the Telegraph went to press.
steveT350C said:
Just for you TB.....
@BarackObama: It's official: 2014 was the hottest year on record. http://t.co/u5ihOEufy5 It's time to #ActOnClimate.
Obama believing this makes sense.@BarackObama: It's official: 2014 was the hottest year on record. http://t.co/u5ihOEufy5 It's time to #ActOnClimate.
He singularly failed to join all the other climate world leaders attending the Hebdo fest in Paris.
Hebdo seems to be a comic that first and foremost sets out to denigrate religion. All religion.
Obama is, apparently, religious - especially in terms of his belief in Warming. Thus there is no way he or one of his senior representatives could have attended the events in Paris and retained any credibility. (Especially if the majority of the American voting population were to work out what set up the unpleasant events in Paris in the first place.)
Mornin' all! Your friendly neighbourhood even-handed newspaper 'The Independent' has news for YOU!
Indie says 2014 WAS the hottest on record
Your friendly neighbourhood even-handed newspaper 'The Independent' has news for YOU!Indie says 2014 WAS the hottest on record
S7Paul said:
The Beeb is carrying the same report, though admitting that air temps were not at record levels. It was them boiling oceans wot dunnit!
Review of the papers on BBC TV morning blatherfest; some guest skycaptain has got excited about the Indy's revelation and has concluded that it's worse than we thought.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff