Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3

[LongQ]

Jacobyte said:

LongQ said:

You'll have to wait for the next alphabetic cycle then.

25 to go ...

So it should come around about the end of April?

Only 20 to go sadly:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/name-our...

Disappointing.

So, beginning of April then for the next A name.

What do they mean by "Authoritative"?

I know what the word means - but what does it mean when they use it?

[LongQ]

The Don of Croy said:

LongQ said:

...That said I have a suspicion that it might become a huge incentive for people to turn off the hype reception and simply recognise that we live in a part of the planet that does have a tendency towards wide ranging but not terribly extreme weather on a day by day basis. Such a recognition might be a good thing....

My emphasis. Did you not get the memo?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06zryhm

Thinking about Victorian Infrastructure ....

Well if they want to start a movement to build all sort of concrete bridges so be it. However I would bet they won't last anything like as long as most of the surviving major Victorian structures have.

Extended that thought somewhat .... how much was the "estimate" for the cost of rebuilding the Palace of Westminster?

Surely a nice Norman Foster design would be a better (?) investment. Maybe something along the lines of the Council office blob or the gherkin, but lower level. Something more like a cucumber or a courgette extending along the ground as it grows.

Or go high rise and annoy the Jerker bloke by insisting the a vote to stay in the EU would require the whole circus to dump Strasbourg and have its parliament flip between Brussels and London. Discount rates on the Eurostar. All travelling Freight class of course.

[turbobloke]

tomw2000 said:

... but that a warmer climate would make things wetter for sure.

So does El Nino.

[tomw2000]

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

The nice, brainy, weather man did mention the current El Nino. But almost as an incidental thing.

But essentially the floods were still the fault of my Range Rover and we can fix if I pay more tax

[turbobloke]

tomw2000 said:

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

The nice, brainy, weather man did mention the current El Nino. But almost as an incidental thing.

But essentially the floods were still the fault of my Range Rover and we can fix if I pay more tax

[Mr GrimNasty]

The warmists like to ignore ALL of the available history, and stick to whatever subset of data gives the impression they want.

There was nothing particularly abnormal about 2015 wetness and no evidence of it getting wetter in recent years.

Also historically, wet years tend to cluster together, that's natural, so the fact we've had several wet years together means nothing.




You also have to remember that recently more rain gauges have been deliberately placed in upland areas to capture extreme rainfall, and that historically the measured rainfall is likely under-recorded because of overflowing under-size rain gauges and lack of automation - which is probably the reason prior to 1880 there is slightly less rainfall on average.

[bodhi]

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

Do I not also recall reading that the Sun has been particularly active this winter?

[turbobloke]

bodhi said:

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

Do I not also recall reading that the Sun has been particularly active this winter?

Yes, albeit particularly active in terms of an otherwise quiet period...the tail of the recent double-peak solar max (a weak Daltonesque max) saw a geomagnetic storm from a filament eruption on 14 January hit planet Earth on the 18th and there were long duration solar flares on 02 January and 28 December. We'd need to look into auroral oval effects and brush up on Bucha and Bucha to get a view on what that could mean weather wise. For example one of their papers has this comment about impacts. We should remember that this is based on data, not gigo climate models.

"...at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the intensification of the westerly zonal flow..." That included Europe.

As of Feb, solar activity is low (so far).

[rovermorris999]

I'll put this in here as it isn't really science as I know it but we're doomed, no really, the models tell us!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-343...

[don4l]

turbobloke said:

bodhi said:

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

Do I not also recall reading that the Sun has been particularly active this winter?

Yes, albeit particularly active in terms of an otherwise quiet period...the tail of the recent double-peak solar max (a weak Daltonesque max) saw a geomagnetic storm from a filament eruption on 14 January hit planet Earth on the 18th and there were long duration solar flares on 02 January and 28 December. We'd need to look into auroral oval effects and brush up on Bucha and Bucha to get a view on what that could mean weather wise. For example one of their papers has this comment about impacts. We should remember that this is based on data, not gigo climate models.

"...at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the intensification of the westerly zonal flow..." That included Europe.

As of Feb, solar activity is low (so far).

I thought that the Sun had been particularily inactive for the past couple of years????

Here is an image of the Sun today. There are only two very small sunspots.

[turbobloke]

don4l said:

turbobloke said:

bodhi said:

turbobloke said:

So does El Nino.

Do I not also recall reading that the Sun has been particularly active this winter?

Yes, albeit particularly active in terms of an otherwise quiet period...the tail of the recent double-peak solar max (a weak Daltonesque max) saw a geomagnetic storm from a filament eruption on 14 January hit planet Earth on the 18th and there were long duration solar flares on 02 January and 28 December. We'd need to look into auroral oval effects and brush up on Bucha and Bucha to get a view on what that could mean weather wise. For example one of their papers has this comment about impacts. We should remember that this is based on data, not gigo climate models.

"...at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the intensification of the westerly zonal flow..." That included Europe.

As of Feb, solar activity is low (so far).

I thought that the Sun had been particularily inactive for the past couple of years????

Yes it has, as per my post above we're just past a rather quiet twin peak solar max which resembles the intro to the Dalton Minimum, and possibly the Maunder Minimum, depending on how things progress. In a quiet solar max and even in solar minima there are still bursts of eruptive activity as detailed for Dec and Jan.

In addition to spots, less remarkable (in terms of visibility only!) phenomena such as coronal holes can have a major impact over here on terra firma.

[turbobloke]

Now - through to 2015/2016


Politics will resume shortly.

[LongQ]

rovermorris999 said:

I'll put this in here as it isn't really science as I know it but we're doomed, no really, the models tell us!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-343...

Someone must have a sense of humour in the headline writing department.

A "Chilling" report about the risks of rising temperatures?

Wow, that's "Stunning".

From the same source ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-343...

Mega Quake risk TEN TIMES greater than then previously thought.

So which comes first? The Mega Quake or the Flood?

Where's Noah when you need him?

[don4l]

Yesterday we had depressed dogs. Today we have overbreeding cats.

Is there anything that the won't attribute to AGW?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/09/reduce-co2-o...

[Crush]

don4l said:

Yesterday we had depressed dogs. Today we have overbreeding cats.

Is there anything that the won't attribute to AGW?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/09/reduce-co2-o...

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html

I don't think there's much left

[Jasandjules]

don4l said:

Is there anything that the won't attribute to AGW?

No, I don't think so.

[Pablo16v]

Crush said:

don4l said:

Yesterday we had depressed dogs. Today we have overbreeding cats.

Is there anything that the won't attribute to AGW?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/09/reduce-co2-o...

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html

I don't think there's much left

This is a similar site, which finally stopped listing articles last year.

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

Edited by Pablo16v on Tuesday 9th February 17:22

[Oakey]

The science is settled;

Australia Cuts 110 Climate Scientist Jobs
Because the science is settled there is no need for more basic research, the government says.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/australi...

[hidetheelephants]

That's so sad a tiny violin started playing as I read it; turkeys suddenly grasp the folly of voting for christmas.

[Terminator X]

rovermorris999 said:

I'll put this in here as it isn't really science as I know it but we're doomed, no really, the models tell us!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-343...

"Studying data from over the last 20,000 years, the researchers predicted what will happen to global temperatures, sea level, and ice cover over the next 10,000 years.
The complex modelling effort was led by Michael Eby of the University of Victoria and Simon Fraser University."

Can this complex modelling tell us the weather next week? No? Ok to trust it with a 10,000 year prediction though of course.

TX.