Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3

Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3

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turbobloke

104,147 posts

261 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
Legates said:
For almost thirty years, I have taught climate science at three different universities. What I have observed is that students are increasingly being fed climate change advocacy as a surrogate for becoming climate science literate. This makes them easy targets for climate alarmism.
Over here too, as we can see.

plunker

542 posts

127 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
plunker said:
Still with the logic fails. It's like saying because the little ice age began in the 14th century, volcanic eruptions in the 15th century can't have caused cooling. In the case of Monnin you can say the CO2 doesn't initiate the temperature change and that's all and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert. Keep rolling that pea up the hill!
No it's not exactly like that made-up gibberish at all, it's exactly like saying that volcanic eruptions in 15c cannot have caused cooling in the 14c because (duh) the order of events is wrong.

The order of events is not reversed by commentators to Humlum et al as words cannot alter data (actions can, as when less accurate and heat-contaminated SST temps replace more accurate buoy temps).

There's no evidence of tax gas enhancing changes either, no runaway, nothing, overall negative feedback pertains.

The literature has papers covering all timescales and the order is wrong for causality and manmadeup warming isn't visibly attributable in any form in any global data.

As previously stated n times, the data and sound science show that at this stage any carbon dioxide effect is invisibly small (Beer Law part of it, negative overall feedback likewise); earlier on and now there's an insignificant transient delay in cooling, not permanent dangerous warming.
Sigh. No the order isn't 'wrong for causality' - the theory for the interglacial transition period covered by Monnin is orbital changes causing the oceans to warm and outgas CO2 which in turn causes more warming due to the greenhouse effect. So that all fits doesn't it.

Humlum is a tangle of faulty conclusions from inadequate methods.

Keep rolling that pea.

plunker

542 posts

127 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.

LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.
Likewise.

The first sentence is fairly explicit I would have thought. For most people.

It is of course your prerogative to duck the point being made should you so choose.

plunker

542 posts

127 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.
Likewise.

The first sentence is fairly explicit I would have thought. For most people.

It is of course your prerogative to duck the point being made should you so choose.
I can see the words 'science' and 'settled' so I'm guessing you're point is some kind endless proof/no-proof loop thing that I'm not particularly interested in.

LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.
Likewise.

The first sentence is fairly explicit I would have thought. For most people.

It is of course your prerogative to duck the point being made should you so choose.
I can see the words 'science' and 'settled' so I'm guessing you're point is some kind endless proof/no-proof loop thing that I'm not particularly interested in.
I have always thought that endless loops were your thing.

plunker

542 posts

127 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.
Likewise.

The first sentence is fairly explicit I would have thought. For most people.

It is of course your prerogative to duck the point being made should you so choose.
I can see the words 'science' and 'settled' so I'm guessing you're point is some kind endless proof/no-proof loop thing that I'm not particularly interested in.
I have always thought that endless loops were your thing.
I've always found your writing rather impenetrable, but at least you're keeping it short at the moment smile

durbster

10,293 posts

223 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
It's not overtly political so OT, and for Durbster in particular ('TB sometimes cites references' etc) here are a few more, purely from the last 12 months approx, all indicating that total solar (irradiance and eruptivity) and ocean cycles are driving climate change, with solar driving oceans as it were (in the context of a rotating planet). I haven't had tme to tap every vein here but in any case happy hunting and reading to all who can see invisible signals.
Is this yet another contradiction? If this list is what you say it is, it disproves the argument that science that finds against AGW is suppressed.

turbobloke

104,147 posts

261 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
Also, at least, there's no accidental misinterpretations, as in, causal and causality. Not deliberate, of course.

The quality of causality isn't restricted to an initiation event, any subsequent change is attributable, and in saying that there's no visible causal human signal in global climate data, there's no limitation involved. No visible causal human signal means anywhere.

If there was, for example a post-initiation signal, and there isn't, then the question would arise as to what new mechanism is being invoked for the later event that replaces the non-operating mechanism claimed for the former.

In any case, with negative overall feedback operating, it's a lost cause anyway.

turbobloke

104,147 posts

261 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
durbster said:
turbobloke said:
It's not overtly political so OT, and for Durbster in particular ('TB sometimes cites references' etc) here are a few more, purely from the last 12 months approx, all indicating that total solar (irradiance and eruptivity) and ocean cycles are driving climate change, with solar driving oceans as it were (in the context of a rotating planet). I haven't had tme to tap every vein here but in any case happy hunting and reading to all who can see invisible signals.
Is this yet another contradiction? If this list is what you say it is, it disproves the argument that science that finds against AGW is suppressed.
Kindly RTFP.

The whole point of the post, as explained in a part of it that you didn't quote for some reason, was to show that unlike previously, at the moment The Team is unable to operate effective gatekeeping.

This is what I said and what you snipped: "Gatekeeping by The Team clearly hasn't been doing too well of late and with a few more, who knows, there might be a tipping point ahead".

Points being made on PH are a) there was gatekeeping, and b) it's no longer as effective.

The oxygen of publicity did the trick, putting the poo back in the donkey isn't going to happen so we can look forward to many more peer-reviewed papers demolishing AGW.

durbster

10,293 posts

223 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Kindly RTFP.

The whole point of the post, as explained in a part of it that you didn't quote for some reason, was to show that unlike previously, at the moment The Team is unable to operate effective gatekeeping.
Sorry, not intended as a deliberate edit, I just try and keep quotes succinct to keep the page tidy.

I never believed that the science was suppressed so skipped over that part. No credible evidence you see, and I take nobody's word for it without evidence. wink

Btw, which Chen paper?

edit: Actually I'm struggling to find most of the papers you listed. Any pointers?
edit again: Oh found them on No Tricks Zone. Should have guessed. Is this another NTZ list that isn't actually what it says it is, like the last one? Is it worth bothering to look?

Edited by durbster on Friday 19th August 13:16

lionelf

612 posts

101 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
Turbo, if the next 3 years will see global cooling, as I believe you said a day or two ago IIRC, then who's data are we to look out for to get confirmation of that that's what happened? Who is an acceptable source? I wouldn't want the goalposts being moved afterwards you understand.

turbobloke

104,147 posts

261 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
lionelf said:
Turbo, if the next 3 years will see global cooling, as I believe you said a day or two ago IIRC...
You DNRC. What's being said, on the basis of data (total solar and unmolested temperature) is that progress to a Dalton or Maunder event remains likely over the next two to three decades, not years...

lionelf said:
...then who's data are we to look out for to get confirmation of that that's what happened? Who is an acceptable source? I wouldn't want the goalposts being moved afterwards you understand.
...solar geomagnetic indices e.g. aa and ap, as well as Hale Cycle information on the one hand, also UAH LTT on the temperature side.



Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

171 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
lionelf said:
Turbo, if the next 3 years will see global cooling, as I believe you said a day or two ago IIRC, then who's data are we to look out for to get confirmation of that that's what happened? Who is an acceptable source? I wouldn't want the goalposts being moved afterwards you understand.
Satellite data is the most reliable indicator we currently have.

UAH/RSS/STAR

Predictably, RSS have already started 'adjusting', working through the layers.

STAR NOAA/NESDIS will probably quickly mirror RSS trends.

The campaign to outcast Dr Roy Spencer will reach fever pitch, so UAH can be ignored.

HADCRUT is probably the least badly adjusted ground data currently - you won't find much worrying warming in it currently, and if you compare some stations with GISS you'll find it hard to believe it is even the same data (it isn't, GISS is totally corrupted - as the Icelandic Met Office said in respect of groundless massive adjustments to Reykjavík for example).

So your question is impossible to answer, the ground is changing all the time - which will be the least corrupted & will UAH even survive the pressure?

According to GISS/NASA July 2016 was the hottest month ever, according to UAH it was only the 3rd warmest JULY since 1979 (other big El Ninos as you would expect).

GISS adjustments to US stations from Goddard/Heller - not credible is it, essentially all the warming is from ad hoc adjustments that 'just happen' to correlate to rising CO2!



LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
LongQ said:
plunker said:
..... and there's nothing in that which contradicts global warming theory like you're trying so very hard to assert.
Theory plunker? Science can be settled on just theories?

That has to be political - all handwaving and pie-crust promises later to be ignored. Playing to a gallery seeking any mix of money, power and personal recognition from whichever direction they may be found.
Not sure what you're waffling on about there.
Likewise.

The first sentence is fairly explicit I would have thought. For most people.

It is of course your prerogative to duck the point being made should you so choose.
I can see the words 'science' and 'settled' so I'm guessing you're point is some kind endless proof/no-proof loop thing that I'm not particularly interested in.
I have always thought that endless loops were your thing.
I've always found your writing rather impenetrable, but at least you're keeping it short at the moment smile
Yet you read academic papers and understand them?

robinessex

11,079 posts

182 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
A political entry guys. Opps sorry for the shock !!

From my local MP. Eric Pickles, in our local paper

There is a chance, as the sun beats down, or the rain falls during this glorious British summer, someone in your presence will mutter something about climate change. Perhaps summers were hotter when they were a child, or winters colder.
Climate change is one of the most serious long-term economic threats that this country and this world faces, and the UK is taking a leading role as the world works towards a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change to manageable levels.
The climate talks in Paris last year mean every country in the world now signed up to play its part in halting climate change. Britain has already been leading the way, and will work towards reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
It’s not satisfactory that the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal, is still a major part of our power generation. The UK will be one of the first developed countries to take coal out of the equation, with the recent announcement that all coal-fired power stations where carbon emissions aren’t being captured and stored will be closed by 2025. The Government will build a new, clean energy infrastructure that is fit for the 21st century.
The UK needs a reliable and secure energy supply and the Government still believes that nuclear energy is an important part of the mix. The Nuclear Industrial Strategy published in 2013 in partnership with industry establishes a long term approach for the sector to stimulate economic growth and create jobs in this country.
The Government will now consider carefully the different parts of the Hinkley Point project and a decision will be made in the early autumn.
However, Government support has driven down the cost of renewables and technologies such as solar continue to see costs fall. Renewable electricity capacity in the UK has trebled since 2010. The UK now has enough solar to power almost 2 million homes and is the most attractive market in the world for investment in offshore wind.
So come wind or sun this summer, we are ready to make the most of it.

Serious, isn't it? The bloody ignorance that is.

It has been replied to

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
robinessex said:
A political entry guys. Opps sorry for the shock !!

From my local MP. Eric Pickles, in our local paper

There is a chance, as the sun beats down, or the rain falls during this glorious British summer, someone in your presence will mutter something about climate change. Perhaps summers were hotter when they were a child, or winters colder.
Climate change is one of the most serious long-term economic threats that this country and this world faces, and the UK is taking a leading role as the world works towards a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change to manageable levels.
The climate talks in Paris last year mean every country in the world now signed up to play its part in halting climate change. Britain has already been leading the way, and will work towards reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
It’s not satisfactory that the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal, is still a major part of our power generation. The UK will be one of the first developed countries to take coal out of the equation, with the recent announcement that all coal-fired power stations where carbon emissions aren’t being captured and stored will be closed by 2025. The Government will build a new, clean energy infrastructure that is fit for the 21st century.
The UK needs a reliable and secure energy supply and the Government still believes that nuclear energy is an important part of the mix. The Nuclear Industrial Strategy published in 2013 in partnership with industry establishes a long term approach for the sector to stimulate economic growth and create jobs in this country.
The Government will now consider carefully the different parts of the Hinkley Point project and a decision will be made in the early autumn.
However, Government support has driven down the cost of renewables and technologies such as solar continue to see costs fall. Renewable electricity capacity in the UK has trebled since 2010. The UK now has enough solar to power almost 2 million homes and is the most attractive market in the world for investment in offshore wind.
So come wind or sun this summer, we are ready to make the most of it.

Serious, isn't it? The bloody ignorance that is.

It has been replied to
If I popped my tinfoil hat on I'd say he had been encouraged by the GAS producers as this is exactly what they want...

motco

15,989 posts

247 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
robinessex said:
A political entry guys. Opps sorry for the shock !!

From my local MP. Eric Pickles, in our local paper

There is a chance, as the sun beats down, or the rain falls during this glorious British summer, someone in your presence will mutter something about climate change. Perhaps summers were hotter when they were a child, or winters colder.
Climate change is one of the most serious long-term economic threats that this country and this world faces, and the UK is taking a leading role as the world works towards a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change to manageable levels.
The climate talks in Paris last year mean every country in the world now signed up to play its part in halting climate change. Britain has already been leading the way, and will work towards reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
It’s not satisfactory that the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal, is still a major part of our power generation. The UK will be one of the first developed countries to take coal out of the equation, with the recent announcement that all coal-fired power stations where carbon emissions aren’t being captured and stored will be closed by 2025. The Government will build a new, clean energy infrastructure that is fit for the 21st century.
The UK needs a reliable and secure energy supply and the Government still believes that nuclear energy is an important part of the mix. The Nuclear Industrial Strategy published in 2013 in partnership with industry establishes a long term approach for the sector to stimulate economic growth and create jobs in this country.
The Government will now consider carefully the different parts of the Hinkley Point project and a decision will be made in the early autumn.
However, Government support has driven down the cost of renewables and technologies such as solar continue to see costs fall. Renewable electricity capacity in the UK has trebled since 2010. The UK now has enough solar to power almost 2 million homes and is the most attractive market in the world for investment in offshore wind.
So come wind or sun this summer, we are ready to make the most of it.

Serious, isn't it? The bloody ignorance that is.

It has been replied to
What a stupid Canute the Pickles man is...


LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
robinessex said:
A political entry guys. Opps sorry for the shock !!

From my local MP. Eric Pickles, in our local paper

There is a chance, as the sun beats down, or the rain falls during this glorious British summer, someone in your presence will mutter something about climate change. Perhaps summers were hotter when they were a child, or winters colder.
Climate change is one of the most serious long-term economic threats that this country and this world faces, and the UK is taking a leading role as the world works towards a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change to manageable levels.
The climate talks in Paris last year mean every country in the world now signed up to play its part in halting climate change. Britain has already been leading the way, and will work towards reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
It’s not satisfactory that the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal, is still a major part of our power generation. The UK will be one of the first developed countries to take coal out of the equation, with the recent announcement that all coal-fired power stations where carbon emissions aren’t being captured and stored will be closed by 2025. The Government will build a new, clean energy infrastructure that is fit for the 21st century.
The UK needs a reliable and secure energy supply and the Government still believes that nuclear energy is an important part of the mix. The Nuclear Industrial Strategy published in 2013 in partnership with industry establishes a long term approach for the sector to stimulate economic growth and create jobs in this country.
The Government will now consider carefully the different parts of the Hinkley Point project and a decision will be made in the early autumn.
However, Government support has driven down the cost of renewables and technologies such as solar continue to see costs fall. Renewable electricity capacity in the UK has trebled since 2010. The UK now has enough solar to power almost 2 million homes and is the most attractive market in the world for investment in offshore wind.
So come wind or sun this summer, we are ready to make the most of it.

Serious, isn't it? The bloody ignorance that is.

It has been replied to
Party central PR just passed on without thought.

They should tell us which 2 million homes will be without power at night .... or at least the question should be asked just to see what sort of response it elicits.



AreOut

3,658 posts

162 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke you really have nerves of steel
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