Greece snap elections - 25th Jan
Discussion
Rovinghawk said:
Yazar said:
wipe out Greek debts and lift austerity.
Sounds so much better than welshing on what they owe & spending money they don't have, doesn't it?If they don't pay what they owe, who exactly will lend them money for the new debts to finance their inaustere lifestyle?
If I understand it correctly, their own politicians lied about the countries finances and the EU pretended not to know to get the country into the EU. It is almost a hopeless amount of debt, with almost no hope of being paid down. Unemployment is up. Tourism has recently dropped. The Germans and the Japanese went to war 70 odd years ago because they felt there was no good solution.
I'm not convinced if the EU is more concerned about whether the Greeks will fail and exit, or exit and flourish. The ever closer union, with wildly different economies and attitudes is so far from a good trade partnership that we were promised that it's a genuine Greek tragedy.
EU has to have fiscal union until that happens then this whole merry go round will continue.
Look at the UK - ROI is on its knees following the exit from UK no progress made instead relative to UK it has gone backwards by such a huge margin. I'd wager the What IF they had stayed the UK would have been better than it is and for ROI well a truely massive improvement in all areas.
Will ROI rejoin the UK its biggest trading partner ir stay out on the limb trying to trade with AeU and phone Amazon deals to make he numbers work..
Look at the UK - ROI is on its knees following the exit from UK no progress made instead relative to UK it has gone backwards by such a huge margin. I'd wager the What IF they had stayed the UK would have been better than it is and for ROI well a truely massive improvement in all areas.
Will ROI rejoin the UK its biggest trading partner ir stay out on the limb trying to trade with AeU and phone Amazon deals to make he numbers work..
Welshbeef said:
EU has to have fiscal union until that happens then this whole merry go round will continue.
Look at the UK - ROI is on its knees following the exit from UK no progress made instead relative to UK it has gone backwards by such a huge margin. I'd wager the What IF they had stayed the UK would have been better than it is and for ROI well a truely massive improvement in all areas.
Will ROI rejoin the UK its biggest trading partner ir stay out on the limb trying to trade with AeU and phone Amazon deals to make he numbers work..
The ROI-UK trade relationship is an important one. As you mentioned, the UK is the ROI's largest export market and the ROI is the UK's fifth largest.Look at the UK - ROI is on its knees following the exit from UK no progress made instead relative to UK it has gone backwards by such a huge margin. I'd wager the What IF they had stayed the UK would have been better than it is and for ROI well a truely massive improvement in all areas.
Will ROI rejoin the UK its biggest trading partner ir stay out on the limb trying to trade with AeU and phone Amazon deals to make he numbers work..
UK industrial giants such as the supermarkets, BT, RBS, etc all have major stakes in ROI, while the likes of Ryanair, Primark, Quinn Group, etc are heavily invested in the UK.
brenflys777 said:
I'm not convinced if the EU is more concerned about whether the Greeks will fail and exit, or exit and flourish. The ever closer union, with wildly different economies and attitudes is so far from a good trade partnership that we were promised that it's a genuine Greek tragedy.
The only bit they aren't worried about is Greece failing, because that's already happened. Exiting is problematic if it "fixes" Greece, because there will be a queue of other countries aiming to do the same in that case - plenty of anti-EU sentiment abounds across the continent, and something like a Greek miracle would probably be enough to tip some states over the edge. davepoth said:
The only bit they aren't worried about is Greece failing, because that's already happened. Exiting is problematic if it "fixes" Greece, because there will be a queue of other countries aiming to do the same in that case - plenty of anti-EU sentiment abounds across the continent, and something like a Greek miracle would probably be enough to tip some states over the edge.
Very good point. The thing I just don't get is Greece only has £1.5-2billion remaining to resolve that is all so given all the hardship its gone through to then miss at the last hurdle seems bizarre - why not jade failed at the start or part why through not 99%.
"The leader of Greek left-wing party Syriza says an end to "national humiliation" is near, as opinion polls put the party ahead three days before the general election.
Alexis Tsipras asked supporters for a clear mandate to enable him to end the country's austerity policies.
He repeated his promise to have half of Greece's international debt written off when the current bailout deal ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30945247
Alexis Tsipras asked supporters for a clear mandate to enable him to end the country's austerity policies.
He repeated his promise to have half of Greece's international debt written off when the current bailout deal ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30945247
powerstroke said:
It shows me all the EU cares about is itself
Not member states that's for sure!!
Greece took the decision to join the Euro (and if the polls are right 70% of Greeks still want to be in it) and the decisions over spending were taken in Greece. Greece was the author of it's own downfall.Not member states that's for sure!!
I can't see it ending well in Greece. Unless the EU changes it's stance completely (which I don't think it can do unless it intends to do the same with Spain, Portugal etc.) Greece has the choice of paying the price for writing off the debt - which is leaving the euro - or paying the price for remaining in the euro - which is keeping the debt. They still do not seem ready to make that decision & Syriza is as confused about this issue as any other party.
The reality is there will probably be some sort of fudge where there are some delays to repayments etc. but nothing which really helps Greece in a meaningful manner which will tear Syriza apart and there will be another election in less than 12 months time.
If Greece really isn't going to pay it they should just make the decision. There is no point in going bust for half of your debt having destroyed the fabric of your country in the meantime. Declare a default, write the whole lot off and be prepared to leave the euro. They are running a budget surplus so, in theory, wouldn't necessarily result in economic collapse.
At the moment Greece seems like a rabbit in the headlights and no one (Syriza included) seems to be able to make the decision which way to jump so just sit there waiting for the car to hit them.
confused_buyer said:
powerstroke said:
It shows me all the EU cares about is itself
Not member states that's for sure!!
Greece took the decision to join the Euro (and if the polls are right 70% of Greeks still want to be in it) and the decisions over spending were taken in Greece. Greece was the author of it's own downfall.Not member states that's for sure!!
I can't see it ending well in Greece. Unless the EU changes it's stance completely (which I don't think it can do unless it intends to do the same with Spain, Portugal etc.) Greece has the choice of paying the price for writing off the debt - which is leaving the euro - or paying the price for remaining in the euro - which is keeping the debt. They still do not seem ready to make that decision & Syriza is as confused about this issue as any other party.
The reality is there will probably be some sort of fudge where there are some delays to repayments etc. but nothing which really helps Greece in a meaningful manner which will tear Syriza apart and there will be another election in less than 12 months time.
If Greece really isn't going to pay it they should just make the decision. There is no point in going bust for half of your debt having destroyed the fabric of your country in the meantime. Declare a default, write the whole lot off and be prepared to leave the euro. They are running a budget surplus so, in theory, wouldn't necessarily result in economic collapse.
At the moment Greece seems like a rabbit in the headlights and no one (Syriza included) seems to be able to make the decision which way to jump so just sit there waiting for the car to hit them.
The structure of the EU has prevented the kind of under the table transfers of value because under this existing structure the EU would not get a vote in favour and cannt make such transfers without a vote. This has become a textbook illustration of how such non unified soverign states in a combined currency without fiscal control centrally is inevitably bound to failure. We are witnessing the most expensive demonstration that without fiscal unification such unions cannot ever be stable.
Matter of time, in the end these failing states will fail.
Steffan said:
I also anticipate political sabre rattling followed by another ineffective fudge.
I think if Tsipras had the guts to go to the EU and say, quite clearly, either we get a suspension of debt payments or we default, leave the euro, accept that some of our banks may fail but re-start debt free and really mean it then the promises of his party would have some credibility.However, he is not saying that all and there is zero evidence he has anything like the guts to do it. His "plan" seems full of a load of waffle and to basically beg the EU to help him out while still propping up the Greek banks and providing euro cash.
It will be a typical EU mess of a fudge where everyone can claim victory for 3 months which won't help anyone and they'll all be back doing it again within 6.
I can fully understand why desperate Greek people will vote for him but he is not putting forward an honest or achievable position.
It is easy to say "end to austerity". It isn't so easy to actually do it.
Its higher than the opinion polls which already had them set for a majority. 6m ago
17:12
The exit polls suggest Syriza could win as many as 158 seats enough for an outright majority. But they could also fall just short of 150 seats in the 300 seat parliament. Either way the poll points to a big win for Syriza, but this is still just a projection at this stage.
17:12
The exit polls suggest Syriza could win as many as 158 seats enough for an outright majority. But they could also fall just short of 150 seats in the 300 seat parliament. Either way the poll points to a big win for Syriza, but this is still just a projection at this stage.
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