2015: The Bubble Bursts!

[superkartracer]

Mr Whippy said:

Get a van etc

Interesting posts Mr W , personally i purchased a nice Defender ( before they increased ) , cheap to run , seems to have more than doubled in value and great if it does indeed kick-off, and i've always loved them.

OT - GOLD, what are your thoughts on the REAL value?, i'm thinking £400 1oz , around 2005/6 pricing ( adjusted ) . I purchased a load in 2008 and sold peak 2011 then watched as it dropped and it seems still dropping , little inflation , stronger $ ... hard to known if the drop will run for the foreseeable. Chatting to an Indian friend and they all have 1-2kg + stashed under the bed ha ha.

[Digga]

jonah35 said:

Many classic cars have doubled if not tripled in price in 18-24 months

355
996 gt3
996 gt3 rs
360 stradale
E36 m3
Z3 m coupe

Anything over 10 years old has shot up.

Property is going up every day.

It can't stop yet as people are in the process of taking literally billions out of their pensions that needs to be spent.

8th July Tory speech may change things,

WRT to cars, 'driver's cars have changed fairly radically in the last 15 years.

I don't think there are many true 'analogue' cars left out there, save the extremes of the Morgan 3-wheeler or Ariel Atom. That's not to say modern cars are crap, just very, very different. What differentiates exotics from the 80s and 90s is similar to the qualities which have and still do make proper vintage motoring attractive.

Values may be a bit skewed, but there will still be underlying demand. As you say, the temptation to raid pension funds will be too great for many of the well-provided baby-boomers - the lump sum legislation was a neat solution to capital misallocation.

[Mario149]

superkartracer said:

fesuvious said:

superkartracer said:

And i'll be waiting for the crash, like last time

355's are worth 30-35k tops.. all these cars require ££ to keep them running/working well, terrible investments.

Edited by superkartracer on Monday 8th June 18:22

I agree, mines not put a foot wrong in four years, and averaged out at a horrendous £2500 per year to run, inc fuel and insurance. Maintained properly by a Ferrari Specialist.

Very best of luck , spent 6-8k a year on mine and still had a 35k engine failure ( that was 10 years ago with low millage ).

I spent about £4k/year on mine (including a few choice upgrades) doing 4k miles or so a year on average and taking it on track a few times, and that was with nothing major going wrong and at labour rates of £50/hr. I'm not saying people will, but you can *easily* burn through an average of £5K a year at a specialist if you actually drive it a decent amount, how it was intended and want to keep it tip top cosmetically. If you keep it in the garage and do 1.5k miles a year it'll obviously cost less

[355Chris355]

Auction prices are now lower than they were in May 2014 (Per National Association of Motor Auctions).

Page 6 talks of excess supply and that pricing will have to be adjusted accordingly:
http://www.nama-uk.com/_assets/June_2015_CAR_Aucti...

Interesting that the new Astra is both cheaper and comes with more equipment. This tallies with the desire for car manufacturers to keep increasing sales even if it requries lower margins.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/vauxhall/news/new-...

[R11ysf]

Chris is this post about classic and desirable cars or mainstream stuff? Classics are still shifting at increasing prices, yet you post stuff about fleet cars.

E.g. my mate bought an SLS Gt for £128k in Feb. The same dealer has offered him £160k to take it back and he's seen a similar mileage one sell for £200k.

Fleet stuff coming off lease deals may drag down mainstream prices but desirable stuff is still moving on well and the pension spend from the pension rules relaxation will keep this going for a while longer.

[Digga]

R11ysf said:

Chris is this post about classic and desirable cars or mainstream stuff? Classics are still shifting at increasing prices, yet you post stuff about fleet cars.

E.g. my mate bought an SLS Gt for £128k in Feb. The same dealer has offered him £160k to take it back and he's seen a similar mileage one sell for £200k.

Fleet stuff coming off lease deals may drag down mainstream prices but desirable stuff is still moving on well and the pension spend from the pension rules relaxation will keep this going for a while longer.

In some respects, the very throwaway nature of contemporary cars - even the 'prestige' brands now - might make a flight to quality more likely.

People will be more inclined to lease their beaters and use their capital for more fun and financially secure motoring.

[355Chris355]

R11ysf said:

Chris is this post about classic and desirable cars or mainstream stuff? Classics are still shifting at increasing prices, yet you post stuff about fleet cars.

E.g. my mate bought an SLS Gt for £128k in Feb. The same dealer has offered him £160k to take it back and he's seen a similar mileage one sell for £200k.

Fleet stuff coming off lease deals may drag down mainstream prices but desirable stuff is still moving on well and the pension spend from the pension rules relaxation will keep this going for a while longer.

Well played to your mate! Now that they're not making a Gullwing it's in demand.

This topic is quite generic as I think there are bubbles across the spectrum. The used 'fleet stuff' is interesting to document as the monthly data is available to accurately follow how the market is behaving.

The Topic below discusses the fact that Porsche 991 GT3 prices are now falling fast. These listed at £100k-£125k. Then rose quickly to £180k and are now back to £140k. Still above list but the direction is now downwards. Also Porsche initially said they'd deliver circa 180 but actually delivered 300. Why? The strong pound will be a big factor.
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

[355Chris355]

Significant amount of cars unsold at the Silverstone Classic Competition Cars auction today. All the lots that did sell were below the lower estimate. Feels like the market is turning:

https://www.proxibid.com/asp/Catalog.asp?aid=97935...

[rovermorris999]

A good test will be here:
http://www.angliacarauctions.co.uk/en/classic-auct...

The last few auctions have seen many cars selling for retail+ prices plus some eye-watering results.

[Art0ir]

"This time is different."

[uk66fastback]

A 60s Porsche 356 Speedster in original (rusty) condition just sold for $300,000 in the US.

Mad.

[355Chris355]

The Hagerty Market Rating has experienced its biggest month-to-month drop since July 2013, and its fifth consecutive monthly decline:

https://www.hagerty.com/valuationtools/Market-Rati...