UKIP - The Future - Volume 4

Author
Discussion

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

243 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Quite right. UKIP has served a useful purpose, but messed up the election and is in danger of losing its relevance just when it has a role to play in keeping the Tories honest on Europe.
That reads as though you have accepted what a lot of us were saying, that Cameron etc.s bona fides WRT the EU are, at best, questionable.
Not at all. "Keep honest" is just a vernacular phrase. I mean that it would be useful to have someone pushing him to go just a little further at all times.
He's already slanted/spun the question to be asked.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Guam said:
You rang smile
I agree good point ZOD, discussing a party is not the same as being a member or supporting them as I have pointed out endlessly, many voters will move between parties and discussions such as this help them to consider were they place their mandate at the ballot box.
That does not equate with committing to support in the usual tribal sense.
Tories won this election people need to deal with it whether Labour lib dems or UKIP.

No one was more surprised than me that they failed to grab a number of obvious constituencies on the east coast and holding up, "well we ran them a close second doesn't do it for me in those seats".
They failed to deliver in seats they should have won and they need to ask themselves some very tough questions now imho.

I am thinking that the obsession and focus on Thanet with Farage may have taken their eyes off the ball and as that appears to have been the Tory strategy it was both smart and effectively delivered imho.
Very good post.

NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
The Guardian's 'boy wonder' surpasses himself:

'The attack on Douglas Carswell was wrong, but that doesn’t make him right - Owen Jones

The logic of Ukip’s only MP when he dismisses anti-austerity protests is that the whole population must submit to an ‘elected dictatorship’
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/...

steveT350C

6,728 posts

160 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all


eta: mods, I was not part of the argument you deleted.

NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Thats the thing,I just don't get their motivation.

I don't hagify a Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative thread even though I have thoughts and comments about their policies.

Maybe this is the only game in town.

Disastrous

10,072 posts

216 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
It's quite literally just you and your awful manner.

eharding

13,594 posts

283 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
NicD said:
Thats the thing,I just don't get their motivation.
Motivations vary.

I think the left-of-center PH contingent see UKIP as the distillation of the nasty Tories, rebottled and re-branded, and seek to engage on that basis. The support that UKIP garnered in traditionally Labour-held constituencies at the election must be particularly painful for those folk.

As a Conservative, my visceral dislike of UKIP has been that it gleefully presented a self-indulgent willingness to see Miliband in government if it wasn't able to secure some form of power sharing with a minority Conservative administration after the 2015 General Election. As such, before the election, I saw UKIP as a movement for unforgivable, reckless political vandalism - and the antics of the 'kippers both here and in general simply confirmed that view.

Since the election, things have obviously changed. Now I think the question is whether UKIP can act as an inclusive, positive part of the 'No' campaign - and I'm as yet undecided as to which way I will vote - or simply descend into a pit of noisy, bumptious bile which may play well with the faithful core 'kipper vote, but which will act as an anathema to the electorate as a whole.

The 'No' campaign has a huge hill to climb, based on the current state of play. The 'kippers need to decide if they want to climb it, or dig a trench at the bottom of the hill and hide in it - sniping at anyone who comes within range, most often those at the other end of the same trench.





TKF

6,232 posts

234 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
For me it's purely Schadenfreude. The party stumbles from one crisis to the next in a hilarious manner. If Farage isn't apologising for yet another UKIP member doing/saying/being stupid/racist/homophobic then he's on QT. No wonder he doesn't have time to do the job he's paid for.

The kicker though are the supporters who lap it up and get cross if anyone mentions one of these many, many blunders. Tiny little balls of fury who shout first and think later, if at all. Thoroughly entertaining.

NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Yes, the 'out of the EU' has a large (impossible?) hill to climb.

There cannot be absolute winners or losers as in fact, and unfortunately, both sides will lose some benefits.

It is a shame that a serious re-negotiation of the Treaty is unlikely, but stranger things have happened - like DC's majority.

We have to vote for what we each perceive as the greater good.

eharding

13,594 posts

283 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
NicD said:
Yes, the 'out of the EU' has a large (impossible?) hill to climb.
The "impossible" sentiment is already part of the problem. We've already seen various 'No' luminaries claiming the odds are unfairly stacked against them, that the whole thing is rigged from the start, and pretty much giving up before they've even started.

If you're trying to convince folk to vote for your side, then deliberately looking like a loser from outset isn't going to help.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Quite right. UKIP has served a useful purpose, but messed up the election and is in danger of losing its relevance just when it has a role to play in keeping the Tories honest on Europe.
That reads as though you have accepted what a lot of us were saying, that Cameron etc.s bona fides WRT the EU are, at best, questionable.
Not at all. "Keep honest" is just a vernacular phrase. I mean that it would be useful to have someone pushing him to go just a little further at all times.
He's already slanted/spun the question to be asked.
It could have been a yes or a no question. The question itself is as neutral as it could possibly be. UKIP would have complained if the question had been, "Should the UK leave the EU?", that it was too slanted towards a no.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Guam said:
You rang smile
I agree good point ZOD, discussing a party is not the same as being a member or supporting them as I have pointed out endlessly, many voters will move between parties and discussions such as this help them to consider were they place their mandate at the ballot box.
That does not equate with committing to support in the usual tribal sense.
Tories won this election people need to deal with it whether Labour lib dems or UKIP.

No one was more surprised than me that they failed to grab a number of obvious constituencies on the east coast and holding up, "well we ran them a close second doesn't do it for me in those seats".
They failed to deliver in seats they should have won and they need to ask themselves some very tough questions now imho.

I am thinking that the obsession and focus on Thanet with Farage may have taken their eyes off the ball and as that appears to have been the Tory strategy it was both smart and effectively delivered imho.
Very good post.
yes. I too must give Guam his due.

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

261 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Quite right. UKIP has served a useful purpose, but messed up the election and is in danger of losing its relevance just when it has a role to play in keeping the Tories honest on Europe.
That reads as though you have accepted what a lot of us were saying, that Cameron etc.s bona fides WRT the EU are, at best, questionable.
Not at all. "Keep honest" is just a vernacular phrase. I mean that it would be useful to have someone pushing him to go just a little further at all times.
He's already slanted/spun the question to be asked.
It could have been a yes or a no question. The question itself is as neutral as it could possibly be. UKIP would have complained if the question had been, "Should the UK leave the EU?", that it was too slanted towards a no.
So you say.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Friday 29th May 2015
quotequote all
Mojocvh said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Quite right. UKIP has served a useful purpose, but messed up the election and is in danger of losing its relevance just when it has a role to play in keeping the Tories honest on Europe.
That reads as though you have accepted what a lot of us were saying, that Cameron etc.s bona fides WRT the EU are, at best, questionable.
Not at all. "Keep honest" is just a vernacular phrase. I mean that it would be useful to have someone pushing him to go just a little further at all times.
He's already slanted/spun the question to be asked.
It could have been a yes or a no question. The question itself is as neutral as it could possibly be. UKIP would have complained if the question had been, "Should the UK leave the EU?", that it was too slanted towards a no.
So you say.
Yes, I do! Complaining about such a neutral question is pitiable.

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

261 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
Zod said:
Mojocvh said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Einion Yrth said:
Zod said:
Quite right. UKIP has served a useful purpose, but messed up the election and is in danger of losing its relevance just when it has a role to play in keeping the Tories honest on Europe.
That reads as though you have accepted what a lot of us were saying, that Cameron etc.s bona fides WRT the EU are, at best, questionable.
Not at all. "Keep honest" is just a vernacular phrase. I mean that it would be useful to have someone pushing him to go just a little further at all times.
He's already slanted/spun the question to be asked.
It could have been a yes or a no question. The question itself is as neutral as it could possibly be. UKIP would have complained if the question had been, "Should the UK leave the EU?", that it was too slanted towards a no.
So you say.
Yes, I do! Complaining about such a neutral question is pitiable.
So you say.

brenflys777

2,678 posts

176 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
eharding said:
NicD said:
Yes, the 'out of the EU' has a large (impossible?) hill to climb.
The "impossible" sentiment is already part of the problem. We've already seen various 'No' luminaries claiming the odds are unfairly stacked against them, that the whole thing is rigged from the start, and pretty much giving up before they've even started.

If you're trying to convince folk to vote for your side, then deliberately looking like a loser from outset isn't going to help.
That is exactly what worked for Cameron/conservatives in the GE though.

Vote for us or you'll get SNP/Sturgeon was as negative a message as I can remember in a GE... but it worked. Some of the seats UKIP thought were attainable drifted away in the last week of the election as voters were told the polls showed Labour neck and neck with the conservatives and about to be elected with the SNP.

It's entirely anecdotal but locally I' know of lots of people who have said they wanted to vote UKIP or Liberal but went for the anything else but SNP/Milliband combo that the conservatives sold.

In terms of UKIP the future.... that's the rub. UKIP had a costed manifesto, they ran a positive campaign and they lost. The conservatives ran a manifesto of outspending and under explaining and a negative campaign. They won.

I think UKIPS future is very much in the hands of the conservatives and the EU. Just as Cameron could have killed UKIP by delivering reform/challenge to the EU before May, now the EU can kill Cameron by refusing any meaningful reform. Cameron still won the election though, so I hope the EU is buoyed by this and refuses reasonable reform and allows the Out campaign to thrive.

Wombat3

11,962 posts

205 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
brenflys777 said:
eharding said:
NicD said:
Yes, the 'out of the EU' has a large (impossible?) hill to climb.
The "impossible" sentiment is already part of the problem. We've already seen various 'No' luminaries claiming the odds are unfairly stacked against them, that the whole thing is rigged from the start, and pretty much giving up before they've even started.

If you're trying to convince folk to vote for your side, then deliberately looking like a loser from outset isn't going to help.
That is exactly what worked for Cameron/conservatives in the GE though.

Vote for us or you'll get SNP/Sturgeon was as negative a message as I can remember in a GE... but it worked.
Largely because it was very obviously true. The polls were absolutely right in that the SNP wiped Labour out in Scotland & as such the only way Miliband would have crawled over the line was by being propped up by the SNP. The antics of the SNP since May 7th (and specifically the crass behaviour of their MPs in parliament itself) demonstrates what a very lucky escape we had.

As to EU reform, there has been more positive engagement on the subject from other EU leaders (including Merkel today) in the last 3 weeks than their has been in the last 5 years.

Not surprising really and exactly as predicted by some of us. They weren't going to bother talking about any kind of reform until they were faced with a UK government with a clear mandate to hold a referendum. Everything they have said previously about no concessions and no changes was clearly bluff & billy bullst.

The game has changed now & therefore so has the EU's attitude. It remains to be seen how much concrete progress can be made & how far the changes will go but these people are not about to put themselves in a position of being now called liars for eventually turning round and refusing to make any changes. The UK government is currently in a very strong position & the EU knows it.

Interesting times.


Edited by Wombat3 on Saturday 30th May 00:30

borednow

2,624 posts

187 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
Wombat3 said:
Stuff


Edited by Wombat3 on Saturday 30th May 00:30
Time to go methinks...not forgotten our bet Womby....good luck and have fun all getmecoat

MGJohn

10,203 posts

182 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
brenflys777 said:
Cameron still won the election though, so I hope the EU is buoyed by this and refuses reasonable reform and allows the Out campaign to thrive.
I anticipate that will be the reality of the scenario.

Interesting times ahead.

eharding

13,594 posts

283 months

Saturday 30th May 2015
quotequote all
brenflys777 said:
That is exactly what worked for Cameron/conservatives in the GE though.
I disagree. There may have been some negative aspects to the Conservative campaign in the closing stages of the General Election in the same way that a sign saying 'Danger - Highly Radioactive Waste. Avoid" gives off a negative vibe - but both are fundamentally safety issues. Ignore either message, and bad things happen.

The difference here is that some parts of the 'kipper tendency seem to have given up already. This isn't healthy, doesn't help the 'No' cause, and frankly looks lazy.