UKIP - The Future - Volume 4

[longblackcoat]

brenflys777 said:

If this was a UKIP candidate...

http://cambridge.tab.co.uk/2015/04/13/mental-healt...

Fair to say that there are muppets in every party!

[mrpurple]

longblackcoat said:

brenflys777 said:

If this was a UKIP candidate...

http://cambridge.tab.co.uk/2015/04/13/mental-healt...

Fair to say that there are muppets in every party!

Very fair indeed...wonder what TBH thinks?

[FiF]

HonestIago said:

don4l said:

I'm finding the same. I'm not sure if it is a result of my own cognitive bias, or if it is the way that the polling organisations process their data.

If UKIP do get close to 20%, then the polling companies will have to re-evaluate their methods.

Mainstream polling is designed to shape public opinion - not represent it. They know exactly what they're doing.

I am firmly convinced that methodology in selection and data handling will have to change after this election.
Some polls clearly are trying to shape opinion others try to get it right. But see para 1.

I think Farage is in management of expectations mode. Interesting that he has more or less centred on similar to what Guam and I have been saying.

Hate to say told you so but for a long time have been pointing out that elections are turned by boots on the street. It was always doubtful of UKIP's ability to get decent quality and quantity of doors knocked.

We shall see soon.

[gruffalo]

I went to a hustings last night and after seeing and hearing form our local UKIP candidate there is no way I would want him in parliament representing me, I could not vote for him.

[Digga]

gruffalo said:

I went to a hustings last night and after seeing and hearing form our local UKIP candidate there is no way I would want him in parliament representing me, I could not vote for him.

No matter what constituency and party, that is often a very tricky dilemma.

[FiF]

Digga said:

gruffalo said:

I went to a hustings last night and after seeing and hearing form our local UKIP candidate there is no way I would want him in parliament representing me, I could not vote for him.

No matter what constituency and party, that is often a very tricky dilemma.

Yep, we're in an Ashcroft battleground seat with a history of voting against the Establishment. Independent MP for most of the years we have lived here but Conservative defending this time. The current MP is a decent constituency MP and wavers from being decent chap to a bit of a prick. But cannot bring a vote to Cameron. Didn't in 2010 and even less chance now. Labour is nowhere, they admit that.

Ashcroft last constituency poll showed UKIP second place but again personal issues for me.

The Ind is standing again and he was a very good constituency MP but again possibly nowhere in the race this time, though Ashcroft poll was lacking in detail there.

Pass. Undecided.

[MiniMan64]

Scuffers said:

following on from this...

all the pols are all over the place, to the point they are almost worthless.

everybody I speak to, I would suggest 80% are saying they are voting UKIP, (the rest are mostly tory).

on TV, they stop random people, the majority say UKIP

I guess we will know come the 7th, but I honestly think the 14% and <10 seats is wildly underestimating their support.

DM comments section has been almost 100% UKIP for a while now, even the telegraph's is showing significant support.

comments?

Depends on your circle of friends & colleagues.

Most of mine are teachers, work in education or work in the public sector. Therefore if I based what I predict will happen in May off a straw poll of their voting intentions then I would be predicting a Labour landslide.

[HonestIago]

MiniMan64 said:

Depends on your circle of friends & colleagues.

Most of mine are teachers, work in education or work in the public sector. Therefore if I based what I predict will happen in May off a straw poll of their voting intentions then I would be predicting a Labour landslide.

Then most of your friends are part of the problem with this country. I couldn't bring myself to associate with any Labour voters - they are enemies of decent, hardworking and patriotic Brits.

[Axionknight]

HonestIago said:

Then most of your friends are part of the problem with this country. I couldn't bring myself to associate with any Labour voters - they are enemies of decent, hardworking and patriotic Brits.

Many of them may very well be hard working and patriotic Brits, you can't pigeon hole people like that.

[steveT350C]

Guam said:

Well after a year of folk banging on about the abscence of the UKIP manifesto and it being clear it would come out with the others.
Bang on Cue along with all the other manifestos it has been released.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/570519/Nige...

If what Farage is saying is correct, it has been independently costed, can Labour and the Tories say the same?

audited by the Centre for Economics and Business Research apparently.

[NoNeed]

Just watching the manifesto launch and thinking that a UKIP poll recovery is almost certain.

[Digga]

Axionknight said:

HonestIago said:

Then most of your friends are part of the problem with this country. I couldn't bring myself to associate with any Labour voters - they are enemies of decent, hardworking and patriotic Brits.

Many of them may very well be hard working and patriotic Brits, you can't pigeon hole people like that.

Plus it's not necessarily as simple as saying techer = labour voter. That very much depends on how their lives are impacted by immigration and extremism.

[HonestIago]

Axionknight said:

HonestIago said:

Then most of your friends are part of the problem with this country. I couldn't bring myself to associate with any Labour voters - they are enemies of decent, hardworking and patriotic Brits.

Many of them may very well be hard working and patriotic Brits, you can't pigeon hole people like that.

I'm sorry but wanting mass third world immigration for your own country can never be considered patriotic.

[HonestIago]

NoNeed said:

Just watching the manifesto launch and thinking that a UKIP poll recovery is almost certain.

Please elaborate!

[NoNeed]

HonestIago said:

NoNeed said:

Just watching the manifesto launch and thinking that a UKIP poll recovery is almost certain.

Please elaborate!

I thought it was a great presentation with great content, for instance ensuring we take care of those who serve our nation in the most difficult way possible will win many votes as will the housing policy. I didn't see anything that would lose votes only gain.

A concern for me as a conservative.

[steveT350C]

The CEBR audit can be downloaded as a pdf here
http://www.ukip.org/fiscalplan

From summary...

"We believe that the impacts specified in Table 1 are sound and reasonable, under plausible assumptions for the future path of key economic variables such as GDP, consumer spending, average earnings and employment."

Edited by steveT350C on Wednesday 15th April 11:49

[wc98]

i was not sure what to expect when this press conference began ,but by christ if the big two thought ukip were fading away they just got a rude awakening. if labour or the tories had come out with this manifesto they would have been a shoe in.
looks like they have been keeping their powder dry for the last few weeks ,will be interesting to see the next set of polls after this.

[HonestIago]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32312687

Interesting to read all the top rated comments are pro-UKIP, even on the BBC of all places!

[anonymous-user]

Just watched the UKIP manifesto and I've got to say I'm impressed.
Politicians with conviction and backbone at last.(even if you might not agree with everything they stand for).

[Axionknight]

I'll be having a read tonight when I'm infront of a proper computer, but the initial responses seem positive.

Good to hear, :-)