How many seats will UKIP win

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Thankyou4calling

Original Poster:

10,607 posts

174 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
At the forthcoming general election.

I know percentage of the popular vote doesn't translate to seats so, realistically, how many do people think they will win this time around.

I'll start with 5.

HonestIago

1,719 posts

187 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
10+ with over 20% of the vote.

Jasandjules

69,927 posts

230 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
I suspect 15-20% of the vote. But that won't translate into as many seats, perhaps 10-15 seats.

LotusMartin

1,112 posts

153 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.

HonestIago

1,719 posts

187 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
LotusMartin said:
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.
On the contrary, when they stand at the ballot box there'll be no one to vilify them as a racist/bigot/homophobe (delete as appropriate). UKIP will outperform mainstream polling I have no doubt.

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

244 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
5ish due to the UK electoral system.

Pesty

42,655 posts

257 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
speedy_thrills said:
5ish due to the UK electoral system.
yeah around 5

Soov535

35,829 posts

272 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
LotusMartin said:
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.
Dream on.

When people stand at the ballot box alone with no one watching them they will put their cross where they want to, and I can assure you that when people are left alone to do so they will vote UKIP in their millions.

LordGrover

33,549 posts

213 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
HonestIago said:
LotusMartin said:
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.
On the contrary, when they stand at the ballot box there'll be no one to vilify them as a racist/bigot/homophobe (delete as appropriate). UKIP will outperform mainstream polling I have no doubt.
Some truth in both statements = not much change from polls.
5-10 seems likely, depressingly.

Dog Star

16,145 posts

169 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
HonestIago said:
On the contrary, when they stand at the ballot box there'll be no one to vilify them as a racist/bigot/homophobe (delete as appropriate). UKIP will outperform mainstream polling I have no doubt.
My view on things exactly. I see so much of this "racist" "bigot" "thicko" UKIPpers stuff (I'm thick? Oh really?) along with "if you are a UKIP voter please remove yourself from my friends list" blah blah. Then look at the harassment of UKIP meetings, Farage going to the pub with his kids etc. If any other movement used tactics like that there'd be outrage.

So I, like many others, keep my head down.

I think the 6-8 seats is underestimating things - I think they're going to take a lot of the vote from Labour in the north; people seem to forget the Heywood and Middleton by-election; UKIP didn't win this seat (they fell short by some 600 votes) but it was by far their most significant result in a constituency where you could put a red rosette on a pig and it would win. There are considerably less safe Labour seats than that up here.

My personal view on it is that UKIP are a bigger threat to Labour than they are to the Tories; the Tories have no chance whatsoever in most northern constituencies - UKIP have.

Fishtigua

9,786 posts

196 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
Pesty said:
speedy_thrills said:
5ish due to the UK electoral system.
yeah around 5
That would be my guess too. Had PR come into the equation, much higher.

BJG1

5,966 posts

213 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
HonestIago said:
10+ with over 20% of the vote.


No chance of 20% IMO

Crush

15,077 posts

170 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
Hard to say. I think they could do well when voters are free to vote how they feel without fear of accusations of racism etc. But I also think that the election will probably turn into the usual Blue vs Red scenario with voters trying to keep one of the main two out / voting football team style.

I am interested to see if the paedophile and child abuse scandals will affect voting at all?

From a personal point of view I don't know who I will be voting for at this electio, however it won't be Conservative or Labour.

Mojocvh

16,837 posts

263 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
BJG1 said:
HonestIago said:
10+ with over 20% of the vote.


No chance of 20% IMO
You DO realise the main problem with YG polls [as illustrated during the Scottish Refendum] don't you?

theaxe

3,560 posts

223 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
I'd guess at fewer than 5. I suspect their support is pretty consistently spread with only a few pockets of concentration sufficient to take seats.

Planet Blatark-9

332 posts

201 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all

I'll go for 9 seats with 15% of the vote.

Never before have I been so excited about an general election - and this excitement is all down to UKIP. UKIP have influenced British politics in a fantastically positive way, and I pray that they continue to do so. It's the last hope this good country has.



bad company

18,642 posts

267 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
LotusMartin said:
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.
Are you referring to the Labour Party?

McWigglebum4th

32,414 posts

205 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
LotusMartin said:
<3 - When people stand at the ballot box they will come to their senses and realise these clowns shouldn't have anything to do with running our country.
If you are taking people don't vote for clowns line

So explain the labour vote then

And the tory one

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
Not enough to stop Alex Salmond inflicting more "british are bds" type stuff

McWigglebum4th

32,414 posts

205 months

Wednesday 25th March 2015
quotequote all
If the tory party had an IQ higher then their ego they would step away from certain seats.


As there is more then one seat where it is

If you don't vote UKIP you will get labour