EU Rules Out Renegotiation
Discussion
Bluebarge said:
gruffalo said:
A referendum in 2017 has been promised by Dave to stop the Tory Party from tearing itself apart; no-one else is interested in having one.
If the EU really won't listen to part of the party that forms part of the ruling coalition of one of its member states and place its interests above those of all other major UK parties, never mind those of all its other member states, is it really that surprising?
EFA. If the EU really won't listen to part of the party that forms part of the ruling coalition of one of its member states and place its interests above those of all other major UK parties, never mind those of all its other member states, is it really that surprising?
We all like to think our agenda is the most important. Juncker has just stated what his list of priorities is. No surprise that it doesn't coincide with Dave's, particularly after Dave's cack-handed and far too public attempt to block Juncker's appointment. Que sera, sera, but I wouldn't bet on there being a referendum at all and, if there is one, I think the "outs" will lose.
ATG said:
Cameron doesn't need the approval of Juncker. He needs to convince Merkel, Hollande/Sarkozy, etc. To be sure that will be no mean feat, but the idea that there will be no negotiation if it really looks like the UK will exit the EU is pretty naive.
And remind me how they voted when Cameron went against Juncker as president of the executive European Commission! If you have to rely on the French for anything you're f8cked let alone the newer members (who will ultimately vote for their pockets even for short-term gain).gruffalo said:
Bluebarge said:
gruffalo said:
Stuff that's wrong
EFA. We all like to think our agenda is the most important. Juncker has just stated what his list of priorities is. No surprise that it doesn't coincide with Dave's, particularly after Dave's cack-handed and far too public attempt to block Juncker's appointment. Que sera, sera, but I wouldn't bet on there being a referendum at all and, if there is one, I think the "outs" will lose.
fido said:
ATG said:
Cameron doesn't need the approval of Juncker. He needs to convince Merkel, Hollande/Sarkozy, etc. To be sure that will be no mean feat, but the idea that there will be no negotiation if it really looks like the UK will exit the EU is pretty naive.
And remind me how they voted when Cameron went against Juncker as president of the executive European Commission! If you have to rely on the French for anything you're f8cked let alone the newer members (who will ultimately vote for their pockets even for short-term gain).My favourite speech on the subject was Farage in Brussels, he mentioned renegotiation and the entire room went quiet apart from a very audiable "oooooooh" - touchy subject alert!
He asked if Mr Juncker would still be in a position to concede considering the rough time he had been given in the British press, calling him Juncker the drunker, a smoker "my God isn't that awful?" and suggesting he looks so old because he drinks endless cups of black coffee and has a cognac for breakfast.
EDIT: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qKhM1KslqhY
He asked if Mr Juncker would still be in a position to concede considering the rough time he had been given in the British press, calling him Juncker the drunker, a smoker "my God isn't that awful?" and suggesting he looks so old because he drinks endless cups of black coffee and has a cognac for breakfast.
EDIT: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qKhM1KslqhY
Edited by Axionknight on Wednesday 15th April 12:11
twitter said:
Betfair Predicts @BetfairPredicts · 25 mins 25 minutes ago
As polls remain tight and inconclusive, Hung Parliament hits it's lowest price yet at 1.14, rated 88% likely #bbcdp
https://twitter.com/betfairpredictsAs polls remain tight and inconclusive, Hung Parliament hits it's lowest price yet at 1.14, rated 88% likely #bbcdp
Effectively we have an 88% chance of not having a referendum.
Cameron can say all he wants about 'red lines' but good luck trying to convince the Lib Dems on that one. Boundary reforms were also a red line type issue and look what happened there.
Mojocvh said:
Esseesse said:
Fittster said:
How is Dave defining EU reform?
He hasn't defined it.IainT said:
If the EU refuse and renegotiation then the Referendum will happen: In/Out. If the EU do renegotiate the the Referendum will happen: In/Out.
The EU stance on renegotiation will be entirely responsible for how people vote. Cameron may well back an In vote in the referendum in either case but we will get our chance to have a say on the matter.
No, what the media reports about what the EU and Cameron say has happened about renegotiation will be responsible. I doubt if most of the public will get anywhere near the truth of the matter.The EU stance on renegotiation will be entirely responsible for how people vote. Cameron may well back an In vote in the referendum in either case but we will get our chance to have a say on the matter.
According to Dr. North, Junkers doesn't even have any say in treaty negotiation anyway, as it's a EU Council, not a Commission, function. Though I dare say there would be plenty of back-room dealings.
EU Ref said:
In terms of procedures, treaty change is one remaining area which is not in the gift of the Commission. It remains with the European Council and its President – currently Donald Tusk. The Commission does no have a say in the timing of treaty negotiations, and is not in a position to block member states if they decide upon a vote.
Fittster said:
He could say unless I get A, B and C reforms I'll call a referendum. At the moment if the EU offer to change the brand of wine they server for lunch he can say "They have reformed!" and dump the in / out referendum.
No thats not true, and I think you know that's not true. Cameron has said he will give an in-out referendum. He has also said that he will seek to reform our membership of the EU BEFORE that referendum takes place. I this I think there is tacit acceptance that the status quo is not acceptable to a large % of the British public. What Cameron has effectively said is "look, we know you don't like it as it is, so give us a chance to have a go at renegotiating with the EU and then by 2017 you get the opportunity to vote on whats on the table at that point". - he is not saying that what will be on the table at that point will have changed from what is there now, or that he will get everything the public wants in the negotiation process.. he is just saying we get to decide either way at that point. edited to add: be under no illusion that if Cameron fails to honour the Referendum pledge then he will be effectively ending the Conservative party. He can see what has happened to the Lib Dems over their tuition fee promise, and he can also see full clear how his inability to give a referendum this time round has cost him dear. (Even though he strictly speaking did not break the terms of his promise!) If he is in power as PM in a majority Conservative Government there WILL be a referendum
Edited by andymadmak on Wednesday 15th April 13:05
CrutyRammers said:
IainT said:
If the EU refuse and renegotiation then the Referendum will happen: In/Out. If the EU do renegotiate the the Referendum will happen: In/Out.
The EU stance on renegotiation will be entirely responsible for how people vote. Cameron may well back an In vote in the referendum in either case but we will get our chance to have a say on the matter.
No, what the media reports about what the EU and Cameron say has happened about renegotiation will be responsible. I doubt if most of the public will get anywhere near the truth of the matter.The EU stance on renegotiation will be entirely responsible for how people vote. Cameron may well back an In vote in the referendum in either case but we will get our chance to have a say on the matter.
According to Dr. North, Junkers doesn't even have any say in treaty negotiation anyway, as it's a EU Council, not a Commission, function. Though I dare say there would be plenty of back-room dealings.
EU Ref said:
In terms of procedures, treaty change is one remaining area which is not in the gift of the Commission. It remains with the European Council and its President – currently Donald Tusk. The Commission does no have a say in the timing of treaty negotiations, and is not in a position to block member states if they decide upon a vote.
If the EU refuses to negotiate or Cameron failed to negotiate properly then I would expect UKIP and others to hold them to account.
Skywalker said:
Surely there is no suprise to this?
I don't mean Junker making comment to interfere with the UK General Election, but in the stance taken.
Arguably people liked the candour when it was said that Scotland, if it had voted for independence, could magic itself from being a region of the EU to being a Nation / Member State of the EU.
At least Junker's clarity on this will force some debate - and if it does no more than expose DC's weasel word 'promise' for what it is, them so be it.
There is as little surprise to this statement or it's content as there is substance in what Junker is saying.I don't mean Junker making comment to interfere with the UK General Election, but in the stance taken.
Arguably people liked the candour when it was said that Scotland, if it had voted for independence, could magic itself from being a region of the EU to being a Nation / Member State of the EU.
At least Junker's clarity on this will force some debate - and if it does no more than expose DC's weasel word 'promise' for what it is, them so be it.
I know that there will be disagreement but right now EU needs UK just as much as UK needs EU - possibly more so.
Bluntly, with the exception of Germany, Europe is utterly f
ked.Fittster said:
How is Dave defining EU reform?
The same way that everybody else is - non-specifically. They all talk about it in a vague, hand-wavey, whatever-it-is-that-you-don't-like-can-be-fixed way. It's a fiction. The EU doesn't want to be reformed. We can't even successfully reform domestic institutions that don't want to be reformed.Bluebarge said:
EFA.
We all like to think our agenda is the most important. Juncker has just stated what his list of priorities is. No surprise that it doesn't coincide with Dave's, particularly after Dave's cack-handed and far too public attempt to block Juncker's appointment. Que sera, sera, but I wouldn't bet on there being a referendum at all and, if there is one, I think the "outs" will lose.
Provided sturgeons hand isn't too far up millibands arse after the election; ie we return a conservative majority, then the referendum will go ahead.We all like to think our agenda is the most important. Juncker has just stated what his list of priorities is. No surprise that it doesn't coincide with Dave's, particularly after Dave's cack-handed and far too public attempt to block Juncker's appointment. Que sera, sera, but I wouldn't bet on there being a referendum at all and, if there is one, I think the "outs" will lose.
I'd not be feeling too sure the in camp will hold the day, we could very easily vote out. I'm not hugely bothered which way that vote goes as yet, but at least if we stay in then we've democratically voted for the EU as opposed to being gifted it because the baby boomers didn't understand what they were signing up for and failed to consider how that might evolve.
LucreLout said:
Provided sturgeons hand isn't too far up millibands arse after the election; ie we return a conservative majority, then the referendum will go ahead.
I'd not be feeling too sure the in camp will hold the day, we could very easily vote out. I'm not hugely bothered which way that vote goes as yet, but at least if we stay in then we've democratically voted for the EU as opposed to being gifted it because the baby boomers didn't understand what they were signing up for and failed to consider how that might evolve.
Were lied to, you mean?I'd not be feeling too sure the in camp will hold the day, we could very easily vote out. I'm not hugely bothered which way that vote goes as yet, but at least if we stay in then we've democratically voted for the EU as opposed to being gifted it because the baby boomers didn't understand what they were signing up for and failed to consider how that might evolve.
IainT said:
With the advent of many 'uncontrolled' media outlets and increasing mistrust of the conventional press/broadcasters I would hope people who bother to look will be well-informed.
If the EU refuses to negotiate or Cameron failed to negotiate properly then I would expect UKIP and others to hold them to account.
Yes, but the market saturation of the existing press/media is so large that I don't think the newer ones will be able to have a significant effect. Hopefully this will change, but it will take a loooong time. Those who bother to look are far outnumbered by those who just believe what the BBC or Daily Wail tells them to.If the EU refuses to negotiate or Cameron failed to negotiate properly then I would expect UKIP and others to hold them to account.
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