Predictions for the General Election
Discussion
JustAnotherLogin said:
SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
From the man who is already in hock to the Unions as the price for the leadership ( which his brother would have won without the Union Block vote being against him ) I think Ed would agree to wear a kilt at all times and change the National Anthem to Bonnie Prince Charlie if it meant grabbing power, even if fleetingly. Personally, I think that come election day, more people than the polls suggest will think twice about voting in such a way that gives Labour/SNP a chance of forming a government. Despite all the lefty rhetoric and promise of free money, a lot of people will (grudgingly) appreciate that the UK economy is actually on the up for the first time in many years and a Labour/SNP alliance would ultimately put it all at risk again.
I'm expecting a few more Conservative seats than expected, a few less for Labour and support for the Lib Dems to be less catastrophic than predicted. No idea about the SNP in Scotland, but somehow I doubt they'll wipe the board as we are being led to believe.
End result - a repeat of the current Conservative/Lib Dem coalition with UKIP and DUP as well as minor partners. Given the alternative, probably not such a bad outcome...
I'm expecting a few more Conservative seats than expected, a few less for Labour and support for the Lib Dems to be less catastrophic than predicted. No idea about the SNP in Scotland, but somehow I doubt they'll wipe the board as we are being led to believe.
End result - a repeat of the current Conservative/Lib Dem coalition with UKIP and DUP as well as minor partners. Given the alternative, probably not such a bad outcome...
JustAnotherLogin said:
Tories get fractionally more seats than labour (approx 280-270) but not enough for a majority even with LDs
UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
At which point the Conservatives, who will have elected Boris as leader, pick up every vote in the country UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
Rick_1138 said:
The flag of the SNP over all of Scotland, and the increase of the face painted racist 'hard done by' chip on shoulder Jocks up here claim victory over the imperialist English and the other 55% of Scotish voters hide in their homes hoping against hope that the coalition of losers (Lab\SNP with less overall votes) collapses within 6 months for a no confidence vote.
I am genuinly scared as i am looking to buy my first house in a year or so and if the Lab\SNP get in, interest rates will sky rocket and ill be priced out of a house for another 5 years, but hey, the i'm alright jack benefit bunch will be okay for another grant of free money......
I would not even consider buying a house in scotlandI am genuinly scared as i am looking to buy my first house in a year or so and if the Lab\SNP get in, interest rates will sky rocket and ill be priced out of a house for another 5 years, but hey, the i'm alright jack benefit bunch will be okay for another grant of free money......
If we weren't doing very well up here we would be out of scotland as the nationalists will never give up until they have won no matter what the damage is
funkyrobot said:
I'm not sure what point you were making with this or if you were just making people aware of another thread.The linked thread is a poll of who PHers say they are voting for, not who they think will win, lose or coalesce
Both LibDems and SNP will prefer to work with Labour, so LibLab coalition or Labour minority gubbermint seem most likely.
The Tories have been unelectable for a generation and need a proper philosophy/conviction/direction, which they still don't seem to have. Bullied by UKIP and with little else to say above personal smears, unfunded giveaways, and social division. Weak.
The Tories have been unelectable for a generation and need a proper philosophy/conviction/direction, which they still don't seem to have. Bullied by UKIP and with little else to say above personal smears, unfunded giveaways, and social division. Weak.
deadslow said:
Both LibDems and SNP will prefer to work with Labour, so LibLab coalition or Labour minority gubbermint seem most likely.
The Tories have been unelectable for a generation and need a proper philosophy/conviction/direction, which they still don't seem to have. Bullied by UKIP and with little else to say above personal smears, unfunded giveaways, and social division. Weak.
I'd argue that both Labour and the Conservatives have become unlectable.The Tories have been unelectable for a generation and need a proper philosophy/conviction/direction, which they still don't seem to have. Bullied by UKIP and with little else to say above personal smears, unfunded giveaways, and social division. Weak.
My view:
Labour 271
Cons 273
SNP 55
LibDeb 23
UKIP 2
Green 1
Others 25
The Tories and Lib Dems will do better than expected although I suspect that, having unique insight into the likely economic realities of the next few years, they might not mind that much if they lose. If Labour are able to form a coalition they will be at the mercy of many, many powerful interests who would dearly love to give them a good shoeing. If rates go up a lot of people will be in very serious trouble. IMHO Labour and the SNP need to be very careful what they wish for. I myself wish the Greens would f
k off.
k off.My five:
- Labour will get the most seats but not by much.
- UKIP won't get more than 5 seats but will get 10%+ of the national vote.
- The Lib Dems will do better than expected winning 30-35 seats.
- The SNP won't do as well as predicted but they'll still win 35-40 seats.
- Labour will form a minority government with the support of the SNP and the LDs.
- Boris will be the next leader of the Conservatives and will win a majority in 2020. Okay perhaps this is wishful thinking.
Edited by BlackLabel on Friday 24th April 19:30
UKIP will poll at around 10%
The Tories will "win" ie have slightly more seats
However they will be unable to form a majority with the lib dems
Labour will announce a vote by vote arrangement with the SNP, who will demand more blood with every single vote in parliament.
Before the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections this arrangement will break down
Ed Miliband will be remembered alongside Brown as one of the worst labour leaders in history
The Tories will "win" ie have slightly more seats
However they will be unable to form a majority with the lib dems
Labour will announce a vote by vote arrangement with the SNP, who will demand more blood with every single vote in parliament.
Before the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections this arrangement will break down
Ed Miliband will be remembered alongside Brown as one of the worst labour leaders in history
Labour 273 (28% of vote)
Cons 271 (31% of vote)
LibDem 20 (13% of vote)
UKIP 3 (15% of vote)
SNP 55 (6% of vote)
Green 1 (8% of vote)
The rest 22 (10% of vote)
Result, Labour/SNP and half a dozen others informal coalition. Lasts 2 years, and fails on some minor bill after internal civil war.
Cons 271 (31% of vote)
LibDem 20 (13% of vote)
UKIP 3 (15% of vote)
SNP 55 (6% of vote)
Green 1 (8% of vote)
The rest 22 (10% of vote)
Result, Labour/SNP and half a dozen others informal coalition. Lasts 2 years, and fails on some minor bill after internal civil war.
Timmy40 said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
From the man who is already in hock to the Unions as the price for the leadership ( which his brother would have won without the Union Block vote being against him ) I think Ed would agree to wear a kilt at all times and change the National Anthem to Bonnie Prince Charlie if it meant grabbing power, even if fleetingly. Not so for SNP who could play absolute hard ball.
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