Predictions for the General Election
Discussion
brenflys777 said:
With only a couple of weeks to go before the armchair experts came out to say "I knew that'd happen" or it was "inevitable" it seems a good time to get a post going where these predictions can be seen...
To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.
- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour.
- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote.
- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats.
- Greens won't have an MP.
- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg.
Are you being serious here? Because if you are I'd quite like to relieve you of some money. I'll give you 8-1 ukip win fewer seats than that for a start. There is no way on earth ukip are winning 15 seats FFS, it'll be 2-4. To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.
- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour.
- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote.
- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats.
- Greens won't have an MP.
- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg.
Rick_1138 said:
I am genuinly scared as i am looking to buy my first house in a year or so and if the Lab\SNP get in, interest rates will sky rocket and ill be priced out of a house for another 5 years, but hey, the i'm alright jack benefit bunch will be okay for another grant of free money......
Given that houses are far, far to expensive at the moment, there's a certain amount of irony in your "I'm alright Jack" statement. A rise in interest rates will collapse house prices. BJG1 said:
Given that houses are far, far to expensive at the moment, there's a certain amount of irony in your "I'm alright Jack" statement. A rise in interest rates will collapse house prices.
People have been saying that for an age. Their is a shortage of houses in many areas and prices are still rising.Mortgages are far more affordable now than at any point in a generation some of us still remember the good old days when they hit 15%.
BJG1 said:
Are you being serious here? Because if you are I'd quite like to relieve you of some money. I'll give you 8-1 ukip win fewer seats than that for a start. There is no way on earth ukip are winning 15 seats FFS, it'll be 2-4.
Yes and no. I'm being serious, no I don't gamble.
Having said that I don't expect to be completely right and I might be completely wrong. I didn't expect the current coalition last time. I think this election has the potential to be the most surprising in my lifetime, there are so many variables and more parties who can potentially win seats than in the past. We'll find out soon enough
blade runner said:
Personally, I think that come election day, more people than the polls suggest will think twice about voting in such a way that gives Labour/SNP a chance of forming a government. Despite all the lefty rhetoric and promise of free money, a lot of people will (grudgingly) appreciate that the UK economy is actually on the up for the first time in many years and a Labour/SNP alliance would ultimately put it all at risk again.
I'm expecting a few more Conservative seats than expected, a few less for Labour and support for the Lib Dems to be less catastrophic than predicted. No idea about the SNP in Scotland, but somehow I doubt they'll wipe the board as we are being led to believe.
End result - a repeat of the current Conservative/Lib Dem coalition with UKIP and DUP as well as minor partners. Given the alternative, probably not such a bad outcome...
This ^^^ it already seems to be happening. UKIP are taking more and more votes off Labour in England as people fear the Lab-SNP disaster scenario. Equally Cons will take some votes back from UKIP where people are equally afraid of Lab slipping in. I'm expecting a few more Conservative seats than expected, a few less for Labour and support for the Lib Dems to be less catastrophic than predicted. No idea about the SNP in Scotland, but somehow I doubt they'll wipe the board as we are being led to believe.
End result - a repeat of the current Conservative/Lib Dem coalition with UKIP and DUP as well as minor partners. Given the alternative, probably not such a bad outcome...
Let's face it when Norman Tebbit says for Con voters to vote Labour in Scotland you know that something is seriously screwed up in one of the most dishonest elections I have ever seen. Tower Hamlets excepted perhaps.
The above is a gut feeling so no seat numbers, but essentially Con-LD coalition with support from some others as and when. Dave to use LD as excuse for not getting to grips with EU again, despite his clear promise to the contrary.
JustAnotherLogin said:
Tories get fractionally more seats than labour (approx 280-270) but not enough for a majority even with LDs
UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
Mostly agree with this. I differ on the last para though. UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
Miliband has shown himself to be ruthless in the pursuit of power. I think that will override anything that would lead to a falling out with the SNP sufficient to jeopardise his tenure at no 10. He will do whatever is necessary to keep them onside. And he will be in office for the full term.
Oh, and the deficit will come down. Because Labour will find a new way to measure it.
Greg66 said:
JustAnotherLogin said:
Tories get fractionally more seats than labour (approx 280-270) but not enough for a majority even with LDs
UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
Mostly agree with this. I differ on the last para though. UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
Miliband has shown himself to be ruthless in the pursuit of power. I think that will override anything that would lead to a falling out with the SNP sufficient to jeopardise his tenure at no 10. He will do whatever is necessary to keep them onside. And he will be in office for the full term.
Oh, and the deficit will come down. Because Labour will find a new way to measure it.
In the secrecy of the polling booth I reckon:
Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose.
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view)
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Miliband to resign.
Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose.
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view)
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Miliband to resign.
Northbloke said:
In the secrecy of the polling booth I reckon:
Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose.
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view)
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Miliband to resign.
Can we hold you to this.Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose.
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view)
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Miliband to resign.
Greg66 said:
Miliband has shown himself to be ruthless in the pursuit of power.
I would suggest that it's the Labour machine that is ruthless in pursuit of power, Miliband just fronts it. I sense the hand of Alastair Campbell et al in the background pulling the strings of spin......Milibands performance on the Marr show this morning showed that his presentation has improved markedly over the last few months, but there is absolutely ZERO of substance behind the words. It's the same of rhetoric, fighting for the working man...... He's 100 years too late!
I don't think the lib-dems will come out of this as badly as many think. The conservatives, and by extension the conservative press, need them. I make no value judgement here as to their policies. If the Tories are to stand any chance then they need the Lib-Dems and, oddly, Ukip. I can't see the Labour vote holding up and predict a late shift to the right. Nicola Sturgeon is being given exactly the right amount of rope. Don't underestimate the occasional brilliance of the Tory machine.
Thread bump so we can see who (if anyone) was close to correct. I get 1 point, can a have half for only being 1 out on the UKIP result 
john2443 said:
UKIP take a good % of the Tory vote giving labour wins in 8 constituencies. Wrong
Lib Dems take a beating for going into Tory coalition and not standing up for any of their principles. Right
UKIP get 2 seats. Only 1 out, so far
Tories have most seats but no overall majority.Wrong (it's 325 all at the moment, but presumably the tories will get at lest 1 more)
Nigel Farage gets less votes than the Pub Landlord.Wrong
Lib Dems take a beating for going into Tory coalition and not standing up for any of their principles. Right
UKIP get 2 seats. Only 1 out, so far
Tories have most seats but no overall majority.Wrong (it's 325 all at the moment, but presumably the tories will get at lest 1 more)
Nigel Farage gets less votes than the Pub Landlord.Wrong
Northbloke said:
In the secrecy of the polling booth I reckon:
Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose. Tick
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.Tick
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view). Wrong... Spoke to a couple of mates on the day who had changed to Tory as they couldn't countenance the Miliband/SNP alliance. Good tactic to play on this by Tory HQ.
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere. Half right(!)... about the annihilation.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Wrong
Miliband to resign. Tick
Tories record on the economy will stand them in good stead (it's the economy stupid). Will hold some key marginals they're currently expected to lose. Tick
Despite the media PR onslaught, Labour friendly floaters will not be able to vote for Miliband, he's just too weird and unlikeable.Tick
UKIP will do a lot better than the polls in overall % if not seats (20%+). The "racist" spin has worked making it uncomfortable to support them in public but in private...(the PH demographic is obviously biased but after a few beers, of my generally politically apathetic acquaintances >80% UKIP when pushed for a view). Wrong... Spoke to a couple of mates on the day who had changed to Tory as they couldn't countenance the Miliband/SNP alliance. Good tactic to play on this by Tory HQ.
Libs will hold most of their current seats but annihilated elsewhere. Half right(!)... about the annihilation.
So another Tory/Lib coalition with 6-8 UKIP joining in as well. Wrong
Miliband to resign. Tick
Scores on the Doors....
Truckosaurus said:
- Tories largest party but can't get enough support (from LibDems and UKIPs) to form a majority WRONG
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power. WRONG
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels) STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
- UKIP = 1 seat (Nige narrowly misses out in Thanet South and quits as party leader, only to be asked back for GE2015pt2 as there's no one better to replace him) CORRECT/tbc
- I can see Cleggy losing his seat too. WRONG No-one is surprised when the LDs take a beating CORRECT
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power. WRONG
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels) STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
- UKIP = 1 seat (Nige narrowly misses out in Thanet South and quits as party leader, only to be asked back for GE2015pt2 as there's no one better to replace him) CORRECT/tbc
- I can see Cleggy losing his seat too. WRONG No-one is surprised when the LDs take a beating CORRECT
0a said:
UKIP will poll at around 10%
The Tories will "win" ie have slightly more seats
However they will be unable to form a majority with the lib dems
Labour will announce a vote by vote arrangement with the SNP, who will demand more blood with every single vote in parliament.
Before the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections this arrangement will break down
Ed Miliband will be remembered alongside Brown as one of the worst labour leaders in history
Nope. The Tories will "win" ie have slightly more seats
However they will be unable to form a majority with the lib dems
Labour will announce a vote by vote arrangement with the SNP, who will demand more blood with every single vote in parliament.
Before the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections this arrangement will break down
Ed Miliband will be remembered alongside Brown as one of the worst labour leaders in history
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