Predictions for the General Election
Discussion
With only a couple of weeks to go before the armchair experts came out to say "I knew that'd happen" or it was "inevitable" it seems a good time to get a post going where these predictions can be seen...
To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.
- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour.
- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote.
- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats.
- Greens won't have an MP.
- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg.
ked
Labour SNP informal coalition. Higher taxes, higher interest rates, surge in public borrowing, second break up the Union referendum, sharp decline in the £, surge inflation.
After several years massive Union unrest as the Unions who put Ed in No10 realise that even wrecking the countries economy they can't have everything they want.
After several years massive Union unrest as the Unions who put Ed in No10 realise that even wrecking the countries economy they can't have everything they want.
Mystic Truck says:
- Tories largest party but can't get enough support (from LibDems and UKIPs) to form a majority
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power.
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels)
- UKIP = 1 seat (Nige narrowly misses out in Thanet South and quits as party leader, only to be asked back for GE2015pt2 as there's no one better to replace him)
- I can see Cleggy losing his seat too. No-one is surprised when the LDs take a beating (as an aside, I thought that the LDs had a better than usual 2010 election but it turns out they had fewer seats than in 2005 - it was the 1997 election where they jumped from 18 to 46 seats (57 in 2010))
- Tories largest party but can't get enough support (from LibDems and UKIPs) to form a majority
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power.
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels)
- UKIP = 1 seat (Nige narrowly misses out in Thanet South and quits as party leader, only to be asked back for GE2015pt2 as there's no one better to replace him)
- I can see Cleggy losing his seat too. No-one is surprised when the LDs take a beating (as an aside, I thought that the LDs had a better than usual 2010 election but it turns out they had fewer seats than in 2005 - it was the 1997 election where they jumped from 18 to 46 seats (57 in 2010))
Unfortunately:
Labour/SNP confidence and supply arrangement. In the first year of Parliament, the SNP block all major legislation from proceeding unless more power and money is transferred to Scotland. Eventually parties of most colour become fed up with the situation, and after 9 months the Conservatives propose a vote of no confidence which is supported by most parties except the SNP and the Greens. A new election is called before Easter 2016.
Labour/SNP confidence and supply arrangement. In the first year of Parliament, the SNP block all major legislation from proceeding unless more power and money is transferred to Scotland. Eventually parties of most colour become fed up with the situation, and after 9 months the Conservatives propose a vote of no confidence which is supported by most parties except the SNP and the Greens. A new election is called before Easter 2016.
UKIP take a good % of the Tory vote giving labour wins in 8 constituencies.
Lib Dems take a beating for going into Tory coalition and not standing up for any of their principles.
UKIP get 2 seats.
Tories have most seats but no overall majority.
Nigel Farage gets less votes than the Pub Landlord.
Lib Dems take a beating for going into Tory coalition and not standing up for any of their principles.
UKIP get 2 seats.
Tories have most seats but no overall majority.
Nigel Farage gets less votes than the Pub Landlord.
Truckosaurus said:
- I can see Cleggy losing his seat too. No-one is surprised when the LDs take a beating (as an aside, I thought that the LDs had a better than usual 2010 election but it turns out they had fewer seats than in 2005 - it was the 1997 election where they jumped from 18 to 46 seats (57 in 2010))
The LD share of the vote went up from 22% to 23%, (their highest share since the SDP Lib Alliance got 25.4%in 83) but they lost five seats. That's FPTP for you.anyway...
Johnnytheboy said:
Tories get significantly more votes than Labour but because of our oh-so-fair system, Labour get fractionally more seats.
We then get some god awful rainbow coalition of lefties, which because of the silly fixed parliament law runs and runs.
Saves me writing it!We then get some god awful rainbow coalition of lefties, which because of the silly fixed parliament law runs and runs.
Followed by Puggit Family emigrating...
john2443 said:
Nigel Farage gets less votes than the Pub Landlord.
Seems highly unlikely: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gene...Puggit said:
Johnnytheboy said:
Tories get significantly more votes than Labour but because of our oh-so-fair system, Labour get fractionally more seats.
We then get some god awful rainbow coalition of lefties, which because of the silly fixed parliament law runs and runs.
Saves me writing it!We then get some god awful rainbow coalition of lefties, which because of the silly fixed parliament law runs and runs.
Followed by Puggit Family emigrating...
Greens to be annihilated.
UKIP to poll worse than the vox-pop pundits are currently suggesting
Lib-Dem support collapses (compared with 2010).
Every prospect of unworkable minority/coalition government - to be followed by another election later this year.
And .... it may take time, but once a Conservative government manages to govern on its own, it will deliver on boundary changes.
Oh and a personal 'wish list' - the HS2 high-sped rail project will be cancelled ....
UKIP to poll worse than the vox-pop pundits are currently suggesting
Lib-Dem support collapses (compared with 2010).
Every prospect of unworkable minority/coalition government - to be followed by another election later this year.
And .... it may take time, but once a Conservative government manages to govern on its own, it will deliver on boundary changes.
Oh and a personal 'wish list' - the HS2 high-sped rail project will be cancelled ....
Truckosaurus said:
Mystic Truck says:
- Tories largest party but can't get enough support (from LibDems and UKIPs) to form a majority
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power.
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels)
- Tories largest party but can't get enough support (from LibDems and UKIPs) to form a majority
- Labour + SNP would be enough for a Majority - and despite what they've said in the campaign they'll ally together in a bid to take power.
- Dave clings onto power but has to call another election by the end of summer (where support for UKIP and Greens drops back to 2010 levels)
Doesn't work like that. If Tories largest party but can't get a majority on their proposals, Dave has to resign and leader of second largest party is invited to have a go. SNP support milliband to get the initial vote through and we're off with Labour PM.
Predictions for the OP.
- Tories most votes and most seats
- Ukip 2 seats, Carswell and Nigel. Grimsby missed by under 500 votes. Reckless out.
- SNP 55 seats
- Greens 0
- LibDems not many. Clegg out.
- DUP, Plaid, no change
Tory + Ukip + LD + DUP under 326. SNP-Lab coalition. Queues at Heathrow.
AAGR said:
Greens to be annihilated.
UKIP to poll worse than the vox-pop pundits are currently suggesting
Lib-Dem support collapses (compared with 2010).
Every prospect of unworkable minority/coalition government - to be followed by another election later this year.
And .... it may take time, but once a Conservative government manages to govern on its own, it will deliver on boundary changes.
Oh and a personal 'wish list' - the HS2 high-sped rail project will be cancelled ....
HS2 is the Tories vanity project only UKIP will scrap it. UKIP to poll worse than the vox-pop pundits are currently suggesting
Lib-Dem support collapses (compared with 2010).
Every prospect of unworkable minority/coalition government - to be followed by another election later this year.
And .... it may take time, but once a Conservative government manages to govern on its own, it will deliver on boundary changes.
Oh and a personal 'wish list' - the HS2 high-sped rail project will be cancelled ....
The flag of the SNP over all of Scotland, and the increase of the face painted racist 'hard done by' chip on shoulder Jocks up here claim victory over the imperialist English and the other 55% of Scotish voters hide in their homes hoping against hope that the coalition of losers (Lab\SNP with less overall votes) collapses within 6 months for a no confidence vote.
I am genuinly scared as i am looking to buy my first house in a year or so and if the Lab\SNP get in, interest rates will sky rocket and ill be priced out of a house for another 5 years, but hey, the i'm alright jack benefit bunch will be okay for another grant of free money......
I am genuinly scared as i am looking to buy my first house in a year or so and if the Lab\SNP get in, interest rates will sky rocket and ill be priced out of a house for another 5 years, but hey, the i'm alright jack benefit bunch will be okay for another grant of free money......
Tories get fractionally more seats than labour (approx 280-270) but not enough for a majority even with LDs
UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
UKIP on 3, Greens 1, Lib Dems 25-30
Cameron spends a few days scratching around DUP etc trying to see if he can get there but cannot.
To avoid the constitutional crisis that Brown almost caused, he agrees to stay on as PM whilst inviting Miliband to try and get a majority
Here's where it gets more difficult to predict. Labour would need SNP at least to form a majority. SNP will play very hardball, will Miliband cave in? On balance I think he will, in the hope of getting his way after he has got the Queen's speech through on a confidence & supply vote
He limps on for 9 months until either the SNP or even Labour themselves move a motion of no confidence and that passes and we get another election
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