Predictions for the General Election
Discussion
brenflys777 said:
With only a couple of weeks to go before the armchair experts came out to say "I knew that'd happen" or it was "inevitable" it seems a good time to get a post going where these predictions can be seen...
To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.
- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour. YES + A BIT!
- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote. NO. AS MANY VOTES AS SNP + LIB DEMS BUT ONLY 1 SEAT & 13%
- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats. EPIC FAIL.
- Greens won't have an MP. NO. BRIGHTON ACTUALLY.
- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg. NO. FAR WORSE BUT CLEGG HOLDS.
Bugger. I don't believe the doomsayers and I'm glad some very promising new conservatives have arrived. The Carnage of the opposition leaders will provide an opportunity to change, but the number of votes per seat per party is extraordinary.To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.
- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour. YES + A BIT!
- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote. NO. AS MANY VOTES AS SNP + LIB DEMS BUT ONLY 1 SEAT & 13%
- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats. EPIC FAIL.
- Greens won't have an MP. NO. BRIGHTON ACTUALLY.
- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg. NO. FAR WORSE BUT CLEGG HOLDS.
Edited by brenflys777 on Friday 8th May 13:46
t at this too!johnxjsc1985 said:
blade runner said:
And maybe the pollsters should.
Ah yes the experts didnt they do well.Even last night when the exit Poll came out they didnt believe it.
FiF said:
This ^^^ it already seems to be happening. UKIP are taking more and more votes off Labour in England as people fear the Lab-SNP disaster scenario. Correct
Equally Cons will take some votes back from UKIP where people are equally afraid of Lab slipping in.Correct
Let's face it when Norman Tebbit says for Con voters to vote Labour in Scotland you know that something is seriously screwed up in one of the most dishonest elections I have ever seen. Tower Hamlets excepted perhaps.
The above is a gut feeling so no seat numbers, but essentially Con-LD coalition with support from some others as and when. Wrong
Dave to use LD as excuse for not getting to grips with EU again, despite his clear promise to the contrary.Wrong
Also my seat prediction of 3-8 elsewhere was way out. WrongEqually Cons will take some votes back from UKIP where people are equally afraid of Lab slipping in.Correct
Let's face it when Norman Tebbit says for Con voters to vote Labour in Scotland you know that something is seriously screwed up in one of the most dishonest elections I have ever seen. Tower Hamlets excepted perhaps.
The above is a gut feeling so no seat numbers, but essentially Con-LD coalition with support from some others as and when. Wrong
Dave to use LD as excuse for not getting to grips with EU again, despite his clear promise to the contrary.Wrong
johnxjsc1985 said:
Heard a story that there was a Poll indicating a 6% Tory lead on Weds but they pulled it.
Could that Poll have changed people's voting habit?.
Possibly. Could that Poll have changed people's voting habit?.
From comments by a pollster I happened across, it was more than one poll.
Apparently the telephone surveys were consistently showing a Conservative lead of 3% to 4% and sometimes more than that i.e. 6% as above.
However, the online forum approach is, it seems, a more common and therefore more numerous means of generating and gathering data, and pollsters decided to "adjust" the telephone survey raw data in one more way within their models i.e. to bring it more into line with the online surveys.
From what the pollster said, it doesn't look like conspiracy - merely incompetence.
turbobloke said:
Possibly.
From comments by a pollster I happened across, it was more than one poll.
Apparently the telephone surveys were consistently showing a Conservative lead of 3% to 4% and sometimes more than that i.e. 6% as above.
However, the online forum approach is, it seems, a more common and therefore more numerous means of generating and gathering data, and pollsters decided to "adjust" the telephone survey raw data in one more way within their models i.e. to bring it more into line with the online surveys.
From what the pollster said, it doesn't look like conspiracy - merely incompetence.
When you look at Polling I think the question needs to be askedFrom comments by a pollster I happened across, it was more than one poll.
Apparently the telephone surveys were consistently showing a Conservative lead of 3% to 4% and sometimes more than that i.e. 6% as above.
However, the online forum approach is, it seems, a more common and therefore more numerous means of generating and gathering data, and pollsters decided to "adjust" the telephone survey raw data in one more way within their models i.e. to bring it more into line with the online surveys.
From what the pollster said, it doesn't look like conspiracy - merely incompetence.
"does it influence people if they Vote and how they Vote"
I have never been asked a question and if I was I would tell them to go away in short sharp jerky movements
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