Is there any point in earthquake forecasting?
Discussion
With the terrible tragedy that has just struck Nepal it made me wonder if there is much point in the efforts put into forecasting and predicting earthquakes.
They seem to happen very randomly with regard to location, intensity and size and, whilst there is a lot of money spent keeping experts at there computers and elsewhere does it all really amount to much?
Have the experts ever forecast an earthquake and as a consequence had an area evacuated saving lives?
They seem to happen very randomly with regard to location, intensity and size and, whilst there is a lot of money spent keeping experts at there computers and elsewhere does it all really amount to much?
Have the experts ever forecast an earthquake and as a consequence had an area evacuated saving lives?
Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.
The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
I believe in the 2011 East Japan Earthquake there was a warning given to most areas of the east coast approximately 1 minute before the waves (or was it the quake?) struck which they reckon saved thousands of lives because it gave people chance to get to high ground.
The area I was working in was Kanagawa where they know a huge earthquake is due anytime (overdue actually) they're relying on the early warning system to at least get to shelter.
The area I was working in was Kanagawa where they know a huge earthquake is due anytime (overdue actually) they're relying on the early warning system to at least get to shelter.
Some Gump said:
Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.
The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
If you're going to forecast it, it needs to be "There WILL be an earthquake in two minutes. Go and stand outside, away from anything that's about to fall on your head.", and we don't currently have any way of doing that. While we really should keep looking for a way of doing that, we need to consider spending money on stopping stuff from falling on people's heads.The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
davepoth said:
Some Gump said:
Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.
The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
If you're going to forecast it, it needs to be "There WILL be an earthquake in two minutes. Go and stand outside, away from anything that's about to fall on your head.", and we don't currently have any way of doing that. While we really should keep looking for a way of doing that, we need to consider spending money on stopping stuff from falling on people's heads.The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.
IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
I understand it works on P and S waves. Obviously if you're directly above the epicentre you're in trouble, but for those a few miles away it can give enough warning to get to some sort of shelter.
Grumfutock said:
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?ewenm said:
Grumfutock said:
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...
Blib said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...
Blib said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...
On a serious note, it's strange how the UK press and charity and government response to this dreadful disaster isn't a fraction of that for recent far less damaging weather events.
Looks like they had good advice 20 years ago but never actually implemented the building code.
Grumfutock said:
ewenm said:
Grumfutock said:
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff