Is there any point in earthquake forecasting?

Is there any point in earthquake forecasting?

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Thankyou4calling

Original Poster:

10,595 posts

172 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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With the terrible tragedy that has just struck Nepal it made me wonder if there is much point in the efforts put into forecasting and predicting earthquakes.

They seem to happen very randomly with regard to location, intensity and size and, whilst there is a lot of money spent keeping experts at there computers and elsewhere does it all really amount to much?

Have the experts ever forecast an earthquake and as a consequence had an area evacuated saving lives?

McWigglebum4th

32,414 posts

203 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Thing of it like trying to predict the weather

We weren't very good at it 300 years ago

Now we are very good at it (honest)



Some Gump

12,671 posts

185 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.

The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.

IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

242 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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The statistical models are used to decide on relevant building codes and such. The forecast itself is more of a probability model.

Cyder

7,045 posts

219 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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I believe in the 2011 East Japan Earthquake there was a warning given to most areas of the east coast approximately 1 minute before the waves (or was it the quake?) struck which they reckon saved thousands of lives because it gave people chance to get to high ground.

The area I was working in was Kanagawa where they know a huge earthquake is due anytime (overdue actually) they're relying on the early warning system to at least get to shelter.

Hoofy

76,253 posts

281 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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McWigglebum4th said:
Thing of it like trying to predict the weather
We still have yet to master predictive text so forget trying to predict earthquakes! wink

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Monday 27th April 2015
quotequote all
Some Gump said:
Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.

The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.

IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
If you're going to forecast it, it needs to be "There WILL be an earthquake in two minutes. Go and stand outside, away from anything that's about to fall on your head.", and we don't currently have any way of doing that. While we really should keep looking for a way of doing that, we need to consider spending money on stopping stuff from falling on people's heads.

Cyder

7,045 posts

219 months

Monday 27th April 2015
quotequote all
davepoth said:
Some Gump said:
Ironically, nepal was predicted as imminent just 2 -3 weeks ago.

The problem is, once it's predicted what do you do with the info? It's not like the nepalese can just evacuate for a few years and come back once the quake has passed for another cycle.

IMO the best plan is to make more quake resilient buildings, but that is very mich easier said than done outside of the highly developed world..
If you're going to forecast it, it needs to be "There WILL be an earthquake in two minutes. Go and stand outside, away from anything that's about to fall on your head.", and we don't currently have any way of doing that. While we really should keep looking for a way of doing that, we need to consider spending money on stopping stuff from falling on people's heads.
Yes they do, as I mentioned above, in Japan they have a system country wide where they can warn that an earthquake is going to strike imminently and to take shelter.

I understand it works on P and S waves. Obviously if you're directly above the epicentre you're in trouble, but for those a few miles away it can give enough warning to get to some sort of shelter.

Morningside

24,110 posts

228 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Dunno, I think they are on very shaky ground.

I always think "where are you going to run to"?

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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ewenm

28,506 posts

244 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Grumfutock said:
This one was predicted 2 weeks ago!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3247...
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?

MiniMan64

16,863 posts

189 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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By all accounts the Nepalese quake was very shallow which would make P-S wave predicting pretty useless.

Catatafish

1,361 posts

144 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Yeah just stop all research. If it's not sorted/solved in 5secs, those cheeky scientist bstards must be pissing away that 0.00005p that you contribute to seismic research each year wink

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 27th April 2015
quotequote all
ewenm said:
Grumfutock said:
This one was predicted 2 weeks ago!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3247...
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?
Well something's you can't avoid. But earth quakes under water cause tsunami's so there is a good purpose to predicting those.

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

169 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........

Blib

43,793 posts

196 months

Monday 27th April 2015
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Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...

hehe

Grumfutock

5,274 posts

164 months

Monday 27th April 2015
quotequote all
Blib said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...

hehe
Does it also mean the 2nd coming? They blame it for everything else.

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

169 months

Monday 27th April 2015
quotequote all
Blib said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
In an ever warming world, these events are certain to become more frequent and more extreme. Oh hang on........
You jest.......

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/26...

hehe
Doubly ironic. These days it's shorter to make a list of things not caused by..........

On a serious note, it's strange how the UK press and charity and government response to this dreadful disaster isn't a fraction of that for recent far less damaging weather events.

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

242 months

Tuesday 28th April 2015
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Looks like they had good advice 20 years ago but never actually implemented the building code.

ewenm

28,506 posts

244 months

Tuesday 28th April 2015
quotequote all
Grumfutock said:
ewenm said:
Grumfutock said:
This one was predicted 2 weeks ago!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-3247...
But as asked above, if in Nepal what do you actually do with that information? 2+ weeks in a bunker/away from potential danger?
Well something's you can't avoid. But earth quakes under water cause tsunami's so there is a good purpose to predicting those.
Absolutely, and hopefully knowledge and understanding will improve and predictions will be more along the lines of "in the next 1-2 hours" rather than "in the next 2 weeks" or "generally overdue". The more precise the information, the more useful it is.