Election result is now abundantly clear
Discussion
confused_buyer said:
That ship sailed on June 18 2008.
You are wasting your time pointing that out on here.Cameron made the promise after Brown had replaced Blair and was widely tipped to call a snap election as the "Brown bounce" had established a lead for Labour in the opinion polls. The promise was made in September 2007 with the expectation that an election would take place the next month. This wasn't done on a whim, all of the indications were that the country was going to the polls (Labour had already unveiled their advertising campaign slogan and booked the advertising space). In the end Brown decided not to call an election and used his exiting parliamentary majority to ratify the treaty in June 2008.
Having a referendum on it after it was ratified would be like having a referendum today on London hosting the 2012 Olympics.
However, the ConDem Government did pass a parliamentary act that prevents further transfer of sovereignty without holding a referendum.
confused_buyer said:
IainT said:
How is the UKIP referendum promise different from the Tory one?
You've got me. As far as I can tell UKIP are saying referendum 2015/16 and Tories by end of 2017.The Tory one won't happen.
Hint, politicians lie to get votes.
Cons probably picked up a bunch of UKIP voters with that little lie. Job done.
Dave
Mr Whippy said:
No, the UKIP one will be in 2015/2016.
The Tory one won't happen.
If it doesn't, about half the parliamentary party will be off. It will happen but there will be enormous media, business and political pressure to vote to stay in. That will happen regardless of who calls one.The Tory one won't happen.
The only thing you can say for sure is that if Tories/UKIP can't command a majority in the Commons it is 101% certain not to happen. If the Tories only have a 5% chance of actually doing it they are still the best bet if you want such a vote.
Mr Whippy said:
confused_buyer said:
IainT said:
How is the UKIP referendum promise different from the Tory one?
You've got me. As far as I can tell UKIP are saying referendum 2015/16 and Tories by end of 2017.The Tory one won't happen.
Hint, politicians lie to get votes.
Cons probably picked up a bunch of UKIP voters with that little lie. Job done.
Dave
I've just watched the BBC news and they are interviewing some students in Brighton, from what they are voting for its going to be their beloved Green Party or Labour, But they weren't saying they want labour in its more about getting the Tories out!.
But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
chrisgtx said:
I've just watched the BBC news and they are interviewing some students in Brighton, from what they are voting for its going to be their beloved Green Party or Labour, But they weren't saying they want labour in its more about getting the Tories out!.
But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
that'll be that tactical voting right there, the dumbest answer to a vote option ever wastedBut.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
fido said:
chrisgtx said:
But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
Which is why we're forever stuck in this cycle of idiocy ..chrisgtx said:
I've just watched the BBC news and they are interviewing some students in Brighton, from what they are voting for its going to be their beloved Green Party or Labour, But they weren't saying they want labour in its more about getting the Tories out!.
But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
Trying to pin down where this mantra has come from, I think I know (a certain TV debate) but it reads as tribal. "Why get them out?" "Because they smell" has the same ring and reasoning to it.But.I Guess them being all knowing 19 year old fonts of student knowledge they can't remember the mess labour made last time.
Gecko1978 said:
/snip
Maybe I am wrong but when I was a student all of my friends wanted to be lawyers, accountants, bankers etc and buy there own homes etc none of us expected the state to help us out beyond provide a good education.
Guessing your username means I have 2 years on you.Maybe I am wrong but when I was a student all of my friends wanted to be lawyers, accountants, bankers etc and buy there own homes etc none of us expected the state to help us out beyond provide a good education.
Likewise when I was at uni, even when I was at South Bank for a year before upgrading after Y1, people were expecting the Government to pay their tuition fees but that was about it. They were there to learn so that they could earn. Not just to hold of the reality of life for another 3-5-7 years depending on what they were going for.
That said it was that 'group' who were so powerful in making sure that New Labour got in in 1997. s
t, at that time even I thought that there was a valid reason for letting them have a short for a term to see how they got on even if I would rather have cut off my cock than voted for them.This time around we have much more recent evidence of the abilities of a Labour Government to FUBAR the economy (every single time they have got into power they have done so and lost power mainly as a result of the country being almost bankrupted by them - look at history) and nothing new or different to suggest that they might do a better job than those currently in power.
We are now reaping the whirlwind of the nanny state where it tells you what is good, what is bad, what you shouldn't think and what you should think and that, basically, nanny will provide...
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
Don said:
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
I think you're right. In a Lab SNP coalition Sturgeon will pull little Ed's pants down and you'll end up throwing money at them until they agree to stay in the union which they'll do for a bit until they reneg and hold another referendum. In the event of a Con or ConLib government with a totally SNP Scotland it's very hard to see how the noise for another referendum won't become too deafening to ignore and after 6 months of moaning you'll all want them to fvck off anyway. So the only way you keep the Union is by buying them off which English voters won't stand for and if you lose the union Labour lose all those votes. Labour are fvcked even if they win. Every cloud!1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
Don said:
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
I think they won't risk a 2nd referendum1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
If they get all scottish seats they will just claim they have won and leave the union without asking the people to have a say
Don said:
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
No it is not, unless the SNP gets more than 50% of the Scottish vote. Winning all the seats in FPTP with 45% would leave things in the same position as after last year's referendum. 1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
fblm said:
Don said:
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
I think you're right. In a Lab SNP coalition Sturgeon will pull little Ed's pants down and you'll end up throwing money at them until they agree to stay in the union which they'll do for a bit until they reneg and hold another referendum. In the event of a Con or ConLib government with a totally SNP Scotland it's very hard to see how the noise for another referendum won't become too deafening to ignore and after 6 months of moaning you'll all want them to fvck off anyway. So the only way you keep the Union is by buying them off which English voters won't stand for and if you lose the union Labour lose all those votes. Labour are fvcked even if they win. Every cloud!1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
2) So it will be a Lab/SNP pact. Maybe not coalition. But the SNP will be required to vote according to whip alongside Labour to get anything through. So only things the SNP approve of will get done. Nice prospect, eh?
3) The Conservatives will have the largest party but not voting bloc and so will simply need to oppose...as they do. They'd best prepare for England/Wales elections in 2020.
The SNPs goal will be to get the best financial deal they can for full independence. They will do better negotiating with Red Ed than they would the Cameroons. So they'll want to get it done this term. After that they'd be negotiating with people who want to play hardball.
Bit of a shame but this is what my money would now be on.
DC building a voting bloc large enough to form government is a possibility - but an outside one, I think. Once you take Scotland out of the equation, though, we can probably look forward to Conservative governments for some time. Just look at the swath of blue on the map the Telegraph have on their front page.
Zod said:
Don said:
If it pans out the way the polls are showing then
1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
No it is not, unless the SNP gets more than 50% of the Scottish vote. Winning all the seats in FPTP with 45% would leave things in the same position as after last year's referendum. 1) The SNP will get ALL of Scotland. That is definitely a mandate to press for a second referendum. That they will win. Scotland will leave the Union. My guess is that Milliband would do a deal such that Labour get their last full five years ever of being power before that happens.
deadslow said:
Have never known so many powerfully-built, goatee bearded, company directors to be stting a brick over a wee lassie from Prestwick 
The outcome of this will be interesting and could change politics in the UK forever: it's all rather good fun. I do happen to technically be a Company Director but there's no goatee and I've got a gut these days instead of being powerfully built.tting a brick over a wee lassie from Prestwick For me watching this pan out is more like watching Game of Thrones than anything else: there's sod all I can do to change it myself so I might as well enjoy watching whilst it happens!
I'm in a safe seat that will only go one way: doesn't matter what I voted. I could even go for Monster Raving Loony's for all the good it would do...
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