Election result is now abundantly clear

[simoid]

JuniorD said:

I don't think LibDem would touch the DUP (if that's who you mean) with a stty stick, given Clegg's comments about the "truly, truly, backward looking views from the DUP.” in connection with their bible-bashing attitude to homosexuality.

I also think Cameron would think twice too as the DUP have blocked gay marriage in NI, and have a wish list that reads like a Santa's letter from the KKK.

Ah I didn't know about their gay marriage thingy, or much about NI politics. I'd just seen on Newsnight or something a few weeks ago that it was a possible coalition and just assumed they were right leaning with funny accents.

Perhaps it was support on a vote by vote basis mind you.

[Rude-boy]

simoid said:

If every UKIP and Tory fan votes Tory we'll all be just fine

Joking aside it would be fairly clear cut if the UKIP voters voted Tory, I think we would be in a very different place right now without UKIP. Not that I don't have some sympathy for them, it's just a week on Thursday is not the day to make your protest vote (because let us face it whatever way you cut it a vote for UKIP is a protest vote - they have no chance of power, slightly more of wining one or maybe even 2 seats, but the ability to let Labour back in through the back door) .

My dismal prediction is a minority Labour government with deals at the door to the votes throughout resulting in an outside view of us being a weak and hamstrung country which is unable to make clear and effective policy decisions. Allied to potential economic oblivion as we return to recession in 18 months time.

[oyster]

4v6 said:

IainT said:

Hopefully this will scare people back to Tory or Lib Dem. The alternative of Lab/SNP happening is truly scary.

Whats more scary is that folks like you dont appear to grasp the fact that it makes no bleeding difference which of the main three you vote for.

Youve fallen into the trap ( which appears to work every-single-time) of thinking one is "better" or more "worthy" than the other- theyre not theyre in it for themselves and for their own egos and legacies and you dont even register as a blip on their radar when it comes to them giving a st about you!

Wake the heck up!

That's pretty insulting to the millions who died fighting so we can have the freedom to choose which party we want to be governed by.

If you think choosing between parties is not relevant, why haven't you migrated to North Korea yet?

[User33678888]

Rude-boy said:

vote for UKIP is a protest vote - they have no chance of power, slightly more of wining one or maybe even 2 seats, but the ability to let Labour back in through the back door) .

I thought Farage was an ale man..

[Chimune]

Id be quite happy for another Con Dem gov thanks. No-one did anything stupid, they get on ok and as long as the unions, racists and weirdos don't get much say, ill be 'happy' ish - with reservations....

[BoRED S2upid]

Rude-boy said:

My dismal prediction is a minority Labour government with deals at the door to the votes throughout resulting in an outside view of us being a weak and hamstrung country which is unable to make clear and effective policy decisions. Allied to potential economic oblivion as we return to recession in 18 months time.

Just out of interest why do you feel a labour minority would happen?

For this to happen the Tories would have to have a disaster as they have the choice to try for a minority government first and you would think if they did they could get some support from what remains of lib dems.

[IainT]

Tory + Lib Dem + both UKIP seats < 50%

[Chimune]

IainT said:

Tory + Lib Dem + both UKIP seats < 50%

Ill take that, and something for the weekend thanks.

[2013BRM]

Chimune said:

Id be quite happy for another Con Dem gov thanks. No-one did anything stupid, they get on ok and as long as the unions, racists and weirdos don't get much say, ill be 'happy' ish - with reservations....

you're not concerned then with the enormous rise in foodbanks, the crisis in housing, growth of poverty and frozen wages against the top 1000 being 112% richer than they were in 2009 then?

[Mr Whippy]

Jimboka said:

TBH I've done ok under whoever governs . Makes little difference in reality. Although I'd prefer Cameron to the numpties...

Exactly.

They give an illusion of opposition and choice, but the reality is subtleties that make no real difference to most people.

Meanwhile those that really make a difference, the EU, go somewhat ignored, meddling slowly and over decades with the impacts spread over both right/left wing party governments leaving you assuming the changes are just part of the natural drift of policies over time.

Dave

[HonestIago]

UKIP voters are some of the most resolute out there and will not be "returning" to the Tories. A majority of them aren't even ex-Tory voters, a great number have never voted before or at least haven't done so in decades.

The ONLY reason an EU referendum is on the table from the Tories is UKIP. Admittedly I would rather see Camoron than Milipede in number 10 but by voting Tory I would be effectively endorsing what the party has become, and I can't do that with a clear conscience. As such I'm voting UKIP because they best represent my views...it is not my fault that the Tories no longer appeal to me. To vote tactically is to vote for the status quo.

[SilverSixer]

There's nothing "abundantly clear" about anything. Nobody predicted Major's win in 92 - Kinnock had it sewn up, the opinion polls told us. Huge amounts of people say one thing then do the other when faced with a polling slip.

My bet? There will be a Tory majority. 'It's the economy, stupid.'

[TEKNOPUG]

A protest vote is due to mainstream parties not sharing the concerns of many of the population. If the Tories/Labour lose many voters to UKIP, blame the parties, not the voters.

[GetCarter]

In case you missed it: Panorama got Nate Silver (yank who got every state right in the U.S. election) to do his analysis.

He predicts Tory 281, Lab 268, SNP 49, LibDem 26, UKIP 2

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05t3flh

[IainT]

TEKNOPUG said:

If the Tories/Labour lose many voters to UKIP, blame the parties, not the voters.

This is absolutely the case but we've seen the contempt for voters wishes from the SNP, why should any party, UKIP included, treat the voter as anything but a means to an end?

[Chimune]

2013BRM said:

Chimune said:

Id be quite happy for another Con Dem gov thanks. No-one did anything stupid, they get on ok and as long as the unions, racists and weirdos don't get much say, ill be 'happy' ish - with reservations....

you're not concerned then with the enormous rise in foodbanks, the crisis in housing, growth of poverty and frozen wages against the top 1000 being 112% richer than they were in 2009 then?

nope. we have no money in case you missed the memo.
why would I care about 1000 rich people ? Rich people tend to get richer. :shrug:

[Rude-boy]

ash73 said:

Rude-boy said:

...a weak and hamstrung country which is unable to make clear and effective policy decisions

In the scenario we are in, where economic experts are split on the merits of austerity, is a cautious middle-road such a bad thing?

I look at where we were and where we are and I am of the mind that we are doing rather better than the other parts of Europe who were/are in the pooh. I am happy with the current approach and believe that it is only the uncertainty of if it will continue this way or Labour will stick us further into the red that is causing issues. People like certainty.

[anonymous-user]

HonestIago said:

UKIP voters...A majority of them aren't even ex-Tory voters...

Is that true? (Genuine question - I don't know, doesn't seem like it)

[Ridgemont]

2013BRM said:

you're not concerned then with the enormous rise in foodbanks, the crisis in housing, growth of poverty and frozen wages against the top 1000 being 112% richer than they were in 2009 then?

What exactly does the enormous rise in foodbanks actually signify?

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/11170813.So__what...

Interesting comment from the Oxford Food Bank;
"Robin Aitkin, co-founder of the Oxford Food Bank, says there are no statistics on food poverty, so in his personal view it is impossible to tell if the need has gone up or come down.

“People have beliefs on this subject but no evidence. Just because there are more food banks opening each week with better marketing doesn’t mean there is increased demand.

“The food banks got bigger and more efficient and the public got to know about them through their higher visibility. If you look at Oxford Food Bank facts where five years ago we delivered say £200 of food per week and now it’s £2,500 per week, the conclusion isn’t necessarily that demand has gone up by 1,000 per cent. I think the whole debate has become hopelessly politicised. There is a real problem in discussing this issue because there is no reliable data.”

Crisis in Housing; post northern rock there was a crash; it's recovering.




'Growth in poverty'

I'm more than happy to accept that inequality has increased. I'm intrigued though by the suggestion that absolute poverty has increased? Or are you referring to the relative poverty measure?

'Frozen Wages'
Hm - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/wa...

'richest double value'

y'know - I'm kind of okay with that if they pay taxes?

[IainT]

Chimune said:

nope. we have no money in case you missed the memo.
why would I care about 1000 rich people ? Rich people tend to get richer. :shrug:

Much is made of the 'wealth gap' between the very rich and the rest of us. On first inspection it seems a terrible injustice but the simple fact that there are fewer (as a percentage) people in true poverty now than at any point is overlooked. If the price of hauling the bottom of society up to a decent level is a few people being so wealthy they don't have a chance of spending it then that's great. The price for driving them away with asset grabs - as advocated by Labour and SNP - is an inability to bring those at the bottom up and everyone else dropping too.

Tory fairness is everyone having a chance.
Labour fairness is bringing all of us down to a lowest common denominator. Except themselves.