Who will be the new Labour leader?

[RYH64E]

johnxjsc1985 said:

this looks to me like the begining of the end for the Labour party. Unless they merge with the SNP and LibDems they will never see power again. We can live in hope

Six months is a long time in politics, a year is an age. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Labour back in contention by the time of the next General Election, in fact when you consider just how shockingly bad both Brown and Miliband were as party leaders it could be argued that the Labour vote held up very well. Labour have at least 30% of the vote pretty much locked in, a decent leader and less crackpot policies will see them back in contention very soon imo.

I should add that, as a Conservative, a strong Labour Party isn't something I want to see, but it's foolish to write them off so soon.

[johnxjsc1985]

RYH64E said:

Six months is a long time in politics, a year is an age. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Labour back in contention by the time of the next General Election, in fact when you consider just how shockingly bad both Brown and Miliband were as party leaders it could be argued that the Labour vote held up very well. Labour have at least 30% of the vote pretty much locked in, a decent leader and less crackpot policies will see them back in contention very soon imo.

I should add that, as a Conservative, a strong Labour Party isn't something I want to see, but it's foolish to write them off so soon.

Just look at the quality of potential leaders the problem they have they have just become a lighter shade of blue and its MP's seem to mirror the Conservative MP's background.
They have no real identity as a socialst party when Andy Burnham is the best you can put forward you know the party is in trouble.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

this looks to me like the begining of the end for the Labour party. Unless they merge with the SNP and LibDems they will never see power again. We can live in hope

Six months is a long time in politics, a year is an age. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Labour back in contention by the time of the next General Election, in fact when you consider just how shockingly bad both Brown and Miliband were as party leaders it could be argued that the Labour vote held up very well. Labour have at least 30% of the vote pretty much locked in, a decent leader and less crackpot policies will see them back in contention very soon imo.

I should add that, as a Conservative, a strong Labour Party isn't something I want to see, but it's foolish to write them off so soon.

2015 result + boundary changes + SNP + no policies + anonymous leader = Labour out for the count.

Ex-Postie Alan Johnson reckons 10 years and he's an optimist.

[RYH64E]

johnxjsc1985 said:

Just look at the quality of potential leaders the problem they have they have just become a lighter shade of blue and its MP's seem to mirror the Conservative MP's background.
They have no real identity as a socialst party when Andy Burnham is the best you can put forward you know the party is in trouble.

Didn't do Tony Blair any harm...

[MGJohn]

RYH64E said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

Just look at the quality of potential leaders the problem they have they have just become a lighter shade of blue and its MP's seem to mirror the Conservative MP's background.
They have no real identity as a socialist party when Andy Burnham is the best you can put forward you know the party is in trouble.

Didn't do Tony Blair any harm...

Tony Blair hugely benefited from far too many years of Tory Quik-fix decline by the time 1997 came around. The then tired Nation was in desperate need of a change ... any change.

[johnxjsc1985]

RYH64E said:

Didn't do Tony Blair any harm...

In 1997 a chimp could have won the Election. The Conservatives had become a bitter embattled group and would remain so for the next 10 years or so.

[Justayellowbadge]

Thing is, are Labour now in the position of the Tories in 97, or the Tories (and perhaps now Labour) in Scotland?

[RYH64E]

johnxjsc1985 said:

RYH64E said:

Didn't do Tony Blair any harm...

In 1997 a chimp could have won the Election. The Conservatives had become a bitter embattled group and would remain so for the next 10 years or so.

He not only won in 1997, he won again in 2001 and yet again in 2005. Much as I can't stand the man, it has to be accepted that Blue Labour was a successful formula in the recent past and there's no reason to think that it won't be so again.

The main point is, even with Miliband at the helm Labour still got 30% of the votes and are easily the second largest party in Parliament, and Miliband must represent the low point for them. It only needs a few Conservative slip ups, a decent party leader, and some policies that appeal to the middle ground, and Labour will be back in contention by the time of the next election.

[davepoth]

RYH64E said:

He not only won in 1997, he won again in 2001 and yet again in 2005. Much as I can't stand the man, it has to be accepted that Blue Labour was a successful formula in the recent past and there's no reason to think that it won't be so again.

The main point is, even with Miliband at the helm Labour still got 30% of the votes and are easily the second largest party in Parliament, and Miliband must represent the low point for them. It only needs a few Conservative slip ups, a decent party leader, and some policies that appeal to the middle ground, and Labour will be back in contention by the time of the next election.

You're forgetting Scotland. Bear in mind that any Labour majority was contingent upon 40 or so seats from Scotland, and they now only have one. They have to win back Scotland before they are going to have a chance at the UK, and that looks difficult right now. The best Labour can hope for in the short or medium term is a minority administration propped up by the SNP, and nobody outside of Scotland seems to want that.

[deadslow]

davepoth said:

RYH64E said:

He not only won in 1997, he won again in 2001 and yet again in 2005. Much as I can't stand the man, it has to be accepted that Blue Labour was a successful formula in the recent past and there's no reason to think that it won't be so again.

The main point is, even with Miliband at the helm Labour still got 30% of the votes and are easily the second largest party in Parliament, and Miliband must represent the low point for them. It only needs a few Conservative slip ups, a decent party leader, and some policies that appeal to the middle ground, and Labour will be back in contention by the time of the next election.

You're forgetting Scotland. Bear in mind that any Labour majority was contingent upon 40 or so seats from Scotland, and they now only have one. They have to win back Scotland before they are going to have a chance at the UK, and that looks difficult right now. The best Labour can hope for in the short or medium term is a minority administration propped up by the SNP, and nobody outside of Scotland seems to want that.

Wrong, in a sense. Labour did used to rely on getting 40 Scottish seats, but they can currently count on the support of 57 Scottish seats, and still couldn't come close to beating a fairly weak Tory offering.

[Crafty_]

Also, going forwards they are dropping the number of MPs, all in city areas where Labour do well.

ETA: And so it begins, Cooper starts having a bh about her rivals: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11...

Edited by Crafty_ on Sunday 31st May 16:44

[RYH64E]

Much though I'd like to, it's too early to write off the Labour Party. In the 2015 election the Conservatives won 331 seats with 36.9% of the vote, Labour won 232 with 30.4%, and UKIP won just 1 seat with 12.6%.

The way our system works is that it's the percentage over 30% that makes the difference, if Labour regain some of their lost voters and pick up a few swing voters, and the Conservatives have a wobble then you could easily see them neck and neck (as the polls predicted them to be just a month ago), then you've got the inevitable protest party vote collapse when the EU question has been asked and answered, adding 12.6% of fruit cakes and loonies back into the mix...

[Cobnapint]

Justayellowbadge said:

It would be hilarious.

'Err, austerity. No, wait, Bankers! And bedroom tax. Boo. Bad. I mean, well, aspiration. Yes! Aspiration. Progressive Aspiration. That's us. Values of progressive aspiration'

For 5 years.

very good

[MGJohn]

RYH64E said:

Much though I'd like to, it's too early to write off the Labour Party. In the 2015 election the Conservatives won 331 seats with 36.9% of the vote, Labour won 232 with 30.4%, and UKIP won just 1 seat with 12.6%.

The way our system works is that it's the percentage over 30% that makes the difference, if Labour regain some of their lost voters and pick up a few swing voters, and the Conservatives have a wobble then you could easily see them neck and neck (as the polls predicted them to be just a month ago), then you've got the inevitable protest party vote collapse when the EU question has been asked and answered, adding 12.6% of fruit cakes and loonies back into the mix...

There is already a surfeit of fruit cakes and loonies in the major parties thank you very much.

[Cobnapint]

RYH64E said:

Much though I'd like to, it's too early to write off the Labour Party. In the 2015 election the Conservatives won 331 seats with 36.9% of the vote, Labour won 232 with 30.4%, and UKIP won just 1 seat with 12.6%.

The way our system works is that it's the percentage over 30% that makes the difference, if Labour regain some of their lost voters and pick up a few swing voters, and the Conservatives have a wobble then you could easily see them neck and neck..

Three things need to happen for your theory to come true.

Labour need to choose a credible leader that doesn't believe in taking revenge on the wealthy.

The SNP need to really f*ck up in Scotland.

And the Tories need to f*ck it up down here.


Only part two has any real chance of actually happening.

ETA, and part three if the Tories are stupid enough to vote Boris in as leader.

Edited by Cobnapint on Sunday 31st May 21:23

[Halb]

I think the reasons that Turbobloke gave on the last page are why Labour is screwed for the next two cycles.
Having said that, the referendum and it's aftermath on the Tory leadership is their best bet at cracking the Torys.
Cameron has not lit the fuse on the same bomb that Blair did not so long ago.

[carinaman]

Harman has launched a Taskforce to find out why it wrong for Labour.

[NoNeed]

carinaman said:

Harman has launched a Taskforce to find out why it wrong for Labour.

I think one of the reasons was a certain picture with Tom Watson hosting a Labour meeting with men on one side and women on the other just before the election was one that lost a fair few votes.

[RYH64E]

carinaman said:

Harman has launched a Taskforce to find out why it wrong for Labour.

When they find out it will be interesting to see if they change their policies to appeal to more people, or try to persuade more people that their existing policies are the right ones. Blair sold out traditional socialist principles in return for power, Miliband stayed true to his (misguided) principles and lost, comprehensively.

[handpaper]

RYH64E said:

When they find out it will be interesting to see if they change their policies to appeal to more people, or try to persuade more people that their existing policies are the right ones. Blair sold out traditional socialist principles in return for power, Miliband stayed true to his (misguided) principles and lost, comprehensively.

As far as I can see, since they were thoroughly discredited in the Seventies, Labour have been unelectable unless they either stopped being Labour (1997) or lied about how they weren't Labour any more (2001, 2005). There is certainly a place in British politics for a party significantly to the Left of the Conservatives (and I say this as a hard-Right, ex-Tory, Kipper), but unless they can convince the electorate that they can be financially responsible as well as socially well-meaning, there won't be a place in Government.