Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 7

[simoid]

DocJock said:

It appears that even her supporters are getting fed up with her rhetoric.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/support...

Batst crazy to think if we had a referendum just now, pollsters suggest the outcome would be similar. This suggests to me that anyone who did vote yes previously would do so no matter what the circumstances are. Even if it meant becoming an independent ruination.

[r11co]

DocJock said:

It appears that even her supporters are getting fed up with her rhetoric.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/support...

It's Quebecois all over again. A long, slow decline from a high-water mark that didn't quite achieve but secured power on the back of a single issue.

One policy does not a government make. The SNP are tying themselves in knots over inconsistent messages and only have the disarray around them to thank for their relative 'popularity'.

simoid said:

Batst crazy to think if we had a referendum just now, pollsters suggest the outcome would be similar. This suggests to me that anyone who did vote yes previously would do so no matter what the circumstances are. Even if it meant becoming an independent ruination.

Yeah, but these are the simpletons who still believe in nonsense like 'export duty' that Scotland is being conned out of, think that Scotland will be able to walk away from their share of national debt with zero consequences, or are like Fluffnik and think that it is penance for ills of history.

Edited by r11co on Wednesday 30th November 12:14

[technodup]

simoid said:

Batst crazy to think if we had a referendum just now, pollsters suggest the outcome would be similar. This suggests to me that anyone who did vote yes previously would do so no matter what the circumstances are. Even if it meant becoming an independent ruination.

I think the longer the posturing goes on the more likely it is that soft Yessers, those persuaded by family or friends but not ideologically wedded to independence at any cost will shuffle back from the dark side.

Sturgeon's obviously hoping the Tories fk up and create a Brexit opportunity for part II, but there are plenty of the more resolute fktards against the EU as much as they are the UK, so she's got a bit of a problem.

In other news, Govanhill is still a rat infested, slum landlord, third world hellhole.

[Alpacaman]

http://www.scottishreview.net/BrianWilson104a.html...

An interesting article about the SNPs attempts to centralize power in Edinburgh, strange when they rage about London and the south.

[simoid]

technodup said:

think the longer the posturing goes on the more likely it is that soft Yessers, those persuaded by family or friends but not ideologically wedded to independence at any cost will shuffle back from the dark side.

Sturgeon's obviously hoping the Tories fk up and create a Brexit opportunity for part II, but there are plenty of the more resolute fktards against the EU as much as they are the UK, so she's got a bit of a problem.

In other news, Govanhill is still a rat infested, slum landlord, third world hellhole.

Do we think the anti-EU yes voters would vote to remain in the UK? If I were an anti-EU independence supporter (IE an actual fan of independence and not just a hater of sharing with the English) then a yes vote would be perfect in this case - out the UK AND EU with no prospect of entry to the EU.

[FN2TypeR]

simoid said:

Batst crazy to think if we had a referendum just now, pollsters suggest the outcome would be similar. This suggests to me that anyone who did vote yes previously would do so no matter what the circumstances are. Even if it meant becoming an independent ruination.

From Britain Elects on Twitter (worth a follow if you have a Twitter account:


Scottish independence poll:

Yes: 38% (-2)
No: 49% (+3)
(via YouGov / 24 - 29 Nov) Chgs. w/ August 2016

A sample of one I admit, but probably the biggest gulf I have seen since the 2014 referendum.

[saabster14]

FN2TypeR said:

From Britain Elects on Twitter (worth a follow if you have a Twitter account:


Scottish independence poll:

Yes: 38% (-2)
No: 49% (+3)
(via YouGov / 24 - 29 Nov) Chgs. w/ August 2016

A sample of one I admit, but probably the biggest gulf I have seen since the 2014 referendum.

I'm always curious as to what the sample size is for these survey's
I've never even seen one being conducted.

[simoid]

saabster14 said:

I'm always curious as to what the sample size is for these survey's
I've never even seen one being conducted.

I think that's probably because they're done online and by phone

[technodup]

simoid said:

Do we think the anti-EU yes voters would vote to remain in the UK? If I were an anti-EU independence supporter (IE an actual fan of independence and not just a hater of sharing with the English) then a yes vote would be perfect in this case - out the UK AND EU with no prospect of entry to the EU.

Who knows. That's not going to be an option though is it? It's either indy in the EU (not happening) or indy with some sort of fudge/pledge to try to keep face, or no indy at all.

She wants option 1. She might risk option 2 if the polls favoured her. Or we'll have option 3 as most of us want.

All I know is the sooner we send her back down the hole she crawled out of the better for everyone.

[FN2TypeR]

saabster14 said:

FN2TypeR said:

From Britain Elects on Twitter (worth a follow if you have a Twitter account:


Scottish independence poll:

Yes: 38% (-2)
No: 49% (+3)
(via YouGov / 24 - 29 Nov) Chgs. w/ August 2016

A sample of one I admit, but probably the biggest gulf I have seen since the 2014 referendum.

I'm always curious as to what the sample size is for these survey's
I've never even seen one being conducted.

Oh well, that's it then isn't it,

Sample sizes vary dependant upon who is doing the polling, they are usually taken from a wide catchment area too to avoid area weighting, IE, doing it solely in Glasgow is likely to produce a different result to doing it solely in rural Aberdeenshire.

[glazbagun]

simoid said:

DocJock said:

It appears that even her supporters are getting fed up with her rhetoric.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/support...

Batst crazy to think if we had a referendum just now, pollsters suggest the outcome would be similar. This suggests to me that anyone who did vote yes previously would do so no matter what the circumstances are. Even if it meant becoming an independent ruination.

TBH, I think that I'd have been more likey to have voted for a clear and honest ruination than the moon-on-a-stick we were promised last time. I think the Indyref had some good debate and led to a lot of NO people weighing the pros & cons before deciding that, on balance, independence wasn't worth it for them. Like Brown said- Scotland would do alright Indy, it would just do better as part of the UK.

Convesely most of the Leavers I know seem to just want out of the EU, it doesn't appear to have been as big a cost/benefit analysis.

[saabster14]

FN2TypeR said:

Oh well, that's it then isn't it,

Sample sizes vary dependant upon who is doing the polling, they are usually taken from a wide catchment area too to avoid area weighting, IE, doing it solely in Glasgow is likely to produce a different result to doing it solely in rural Aberdeenshire.

i wasn't questioning your post, i was asking how big the sample was that produced these results?
i generally ignore opinion polls, mostly because i have no idea as to their validity or reliability.

[B'stard Child]

saabster14 said:

FN2TypeR said:

Oh well, that's it then isn't it,

Sample sizes vary dependant upon who is doing the polling, they are usually taken from a wide catchment area too to avoid area weighting, IE, doing it solely in Glasgow is likely to produce a different result to doing it solely in rural Aberdeenshire.

i wasn't questioning your post, i was asking how big the sample was that produced these results?
i generally ignore opinion polls, mostly because i have no idea as to their validity or reliability.

Not been too good recently around that either

If I am ever asked I normally go for the conformist option anyway regardless of how I really plan to vote...... Gets them confident of victory well in advance and ripe for a real surprise after the result......

[technodup]

saabster14 said:

i wasn't questioning your post, i was asking how big the sample was that produced these results?
i generally ignore opinion polls, mostly because i have no idea as to their validity or reliability.

18th September 2014 is the only one you need pay attention to.

[saabster14]

B'stard Child said:

Not been too good recently around that either

If I am ever asked I normally go for the conformist option anyway regardless of how I really plan to vote...... Gets them confident of victory well in advance and ripe for a real surprise after the result......

I think poll results can influence the result of votes

a poll showing a narrow margin could motivate those extra few voters who otherwise couldn't be arsed

[r11co]

simoid said:

saabster14 said:

I'm always curious as to what the sample size is for these survey's
I've never even seen one being conducted.

I think that's probably because they're done online and by phone

This, and I've been called regularly by several pollsters since the beginning of 2014.

[ellroy]

r11co said:

This, and I've been called regularly by several pollsters since the beginning of 2014.

I wonder if this is part of the reason pollsters having been getting it so wrong recently?

If you ask the same people the same questions over and over again you're probably likely to get similar answers are you not?

[B'stard Child]

ellroy said:

r11co said:

This, and I've been called regularly by several pollsters since the beginning of 2014.

I wonder if this is part of the reason pollsters having been getting it so wrong recently?

If you ask the same people the same questions over and over again you're probably likely to get similar answers are you not?

They (the pollsters) aren't interested in "the decided" they are interested in "the undecided"

You give the same answer 3 times to a pollster they will stop calling you

[r11co]

B'stard Child said:

You give the same answer 3 times to a pollster they will stop calling you

[B'stard Child]

r11co said:

B'stard Child said:

You give the same answer 3 times to a pollster they will stop calling you

See now I knew I would like you and I knew there would be a reason they kept calling you.....

You're one of them there "undecideds" aren't you?

You do realise that Brexit will be blamed on you - they've almost given up (well except backslash3ajd) blaming the people who actually voted leave - they'll be coming for the undecideds next.....

They've never picked on the ones that didn't vote - almost as if they didn't matter (well till it came to bonkers statistics like 65% of the country did not vote for leave and st like that)




Breath easy PM - your secret is safe - I won't tell them........