The 'No to the EU' campaign

[davepoth]

jonby said:

I'ts a very valid point but, bearing in mind how poor most of the current crop of MPs are already, imagine if the pool from which we could choose our PM/party leader(s) were massively diminished by excluding those who want to stay in the EU ! Who are we left with ?

Jacob Rees-Mogg. Now there's a Proper Tory.

[Trif]

AJS- said:

The only possible purpose of which is to scare voters like Trif into thinking that leaving will make the country poorer. Don't fall for it.

There was me thinking the LSE was well respected, but I do agree with many of the points raised, particularly your 'how can they measure it to 2 decimal places?'. However, can you blame people for being intimidated by the prospect? Who actually knows all the factors at play with the economy? And making such a massive change could easily scare investors away. I'm sure a 2% dip would be manageable but at 10% it would certainly scare me away from an out vote, because, as a individual, how much does the EU really effect me? I'm going to say something a little dangerous here... If the United States of Europe was done at the same time as America, I reckon I'd be perfectly happy in it.

[AstonZagato]

davepoth said:

jonby said:

I'ts a very valid point but, bearing in mind how poor most of the current crop of MPs are already, imagine if the pool from which we could choose our PM/party leader(s) were massively diminished by excluding those who want to stay in the EU ! Who are we left with ?

Jacob Rees-Mogg. Now there's a Proper Tory.

The Right Honourable Member for the 1830s.

[Scuffers]

Trif said:

AJS- said:

The only possible purpose of which is to scare voters like Trif into thinking that leaving will make the country poorer. Don't fall for it.

There was me thinking the LSE was well respected, but I do agree with many of the points raised, particularly your 'how can they measure it to 2 decimal places?'. However, can you blame people for being intimidated by the prospect? Who actually knows all the factors at play with the economy? And making such a massive change could easily scare investors away. I'm sure a 2% dip would be manageable but at 10% it would certainly scare me away from an out vote, because, as a individual, how much does the EU really effect me? I'm going to say something a little dangerous here... If the United States of Europe was done at the same time as America, I reckon I'd be perfectly happy in it.

20 years ago, they were! Then they started taking funding from interesting places, the odd report here and there, then more and more from the EU

[AJS-]

Trif said:

There was me thinking the LSE was well respected, but I do agree with many of the points raised, particularly your 'how can they measure it to 2 decimal places?'. However, can you blame people for being intimidated by the prospect? Who actually knows all the factors at play with the economy? And making such a massive change could easily scare investors away. I'm sure a 2% dip would be manageable but at 10% it would certainly scare me away from an out vote, because, as a individual, how much does the EU really effect me? I'm going to say something a little dangerous here... If the United States of Europe was done at the same time as America, I reckon I'd be perfectly happy in it.

I didn't mean to sound condescending. I absolutely can see why things like this scare people. I just wish they wouldn't as they are really based on such pure speculation. Yes the LSE is respected and with justification, it has some very bright people doing strong academic work. Which makes it all the more contemptible that they seem so keen to throw out these wild predictions with such authority.

The reality, uncomfortable for some, about social sciences is that nobody really knows very much at all. There are a whole range of factors at play which are impossible to predict with any accuracy, and whole long chains of assumptions, any one of which wrecks the whole equation if it's out by a small amount.

Regarding the United State of Europe, I might even be persuaded today if they did something like the United States of America. An intelligently designed modern state based on sound principles which have stood the test of time. It was pragmatic and practical at the time but also made great use of an opportunity presented by historical circumstances.

By contrast the EU was born of a mix of German guilt, French loss of prestige and its spin offs in the rest of Europe. It started as an agreement to trade coal and steel and promptly turned into a bureaucratic and political tangle which has not really been successful at anything, except arguably preventing a further war which almost certainly wouldn't have happened anyway in the circumstances.

If the EU was either the loose trading bloc it was sold as or a political entity well designed to serve the people who live there then it might be a different story.

[Guybrush]

David Davis launches bid to lead EU Out campaign:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3431777/Da...

[Trif]

AJS- said:

I didn't mean to sound condescending. I absolutely can see why things like this scare people. I just wish they wouldn't as they are really based on such pure speculation. Yes the LSE is respected and with justification, it has some very bright people doing strong academic work. Which makes it all the more contemptible that they seem so keen to throw out these wild predictions with such authority.

The reality, uncomfortable for some, about social sciences is that nobody really knows very much at all. There are a whole range of factors at play which are impossible to predict with any accuracy, and whole long chains of assumptions, any one of which wrecks the whole equation if it's out by a small amount.

Regarding the United State of Europe, I might even be persuaded today if they did something like the United States of America. An intelligently designed modern state based on sound principles which have stood the test of time. It was pragmatic and practical at the time but also made great use of an opportunity presented by historical circumstances.

By contrast the EU was born of a mix of German guilt, French loss of prestige and its spin offs in the rest of Europe. It started as an agreement to trade coal and steel and promptly turned into a bureaucratic and political tangle which has not really been successful at anything, except arguably preventing a further war which almost certainly wouldn't have happened anyway in the circumstances.

If the EU was either the loose trading bloc it was sold as or a political entity well designed to serve the people who live there then it might be a different story.

Good post, I hope I didn't keep you up writing it.

[FiF]

Guybrush said:

David Davis launches bid to lead EU Out campaign:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3431777/Da...

Could be playing the long game and looking for the leadership once Cameron is ditched.

Cameron mistake ignoring grassroots

[brenflys777]

FiF said:

Could be playing the long game and looking for the leadership once Cameron is ditched.

Cameron mistake ignoring grassroots

David Davis was doing a good job yesterday of making reasoned points without getting dragged into personal attacks as often happens with Farage.

On LBC just Farage mentioned David Davis is appearing at the GO Grassroots Out campaign tonight too. He's not perfect but his working class background and calm appearance would be a good figurehead for coalescing the out campaign groups. Cameron has botched the renegotiation for the IN campaign by getting nothing that would persuade outlets to reconsider, it would be awful if the OUT campaign spike their guns too and talk only to those already decided.

This debate & vote needs to be won convincingly by one side or the other, at the moment it's like a boring boxing match where it's all footwork and no punches.

[Scuffers]

being blunt though, when this campaign really get's down to it, who do you want to see facing CMD on the TV debate(s)?

Boris?
Nigel Lawson?
David Davis?

Can we please pick somebody that's not a Tory and does not have their own cabinet/leadership future in the back of their minds?

[robinessex]

92% of Brits want to QUIT the EU: Shock poll result as asylum claims rocket yet again

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/641341/Express-On...

That's done then, were out.

[Bullett]

From the Times

"The YouGov survey found that 45 per cent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 per cent who want to remain, while 19 per cent do not know or would not vote. Excluding the “don’t knows”, this means 56 per cent want to leave while 44 per cent want to remain."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/articl...

[turbobloke]

Bullett said:

From the Times

"The YouGov survey found that 45 per cent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 per cent who want to remain, while 19 per cent do not know or would not vote. Excluding the “don’t knows”, this means 56 per cent want to leave while 44 per cent want to remain."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/articl...

More good news. Still too close though.

[steveT350C]

Do 'Vote Leave' really want out of the EU?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/05/farage-...

And in other news...

Labour MP Kate Hoey has quit Vote Leave but will continue to co-chair the Labour Leave campaign...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35501298?ns_...

Edited by steveT350C on Friday 5th February 12:02

[Scuffers]

steveT350C said:

Do 'Vote Leave' really want out of the EU?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/05/farage-...

I predict vote leave will fold in the next couple of weeks.

To many egos and Westminster politics.

[Andy Zarse]

turbobloke said:

Bullett said:

From the Times

"The YouGov survey found that 45 per cent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 per cent who want to remain, while 19 per cent do not know or would not vote. Excluding the “don’t knows”, this means 56 per cent want to leave while 44 per cent want to remain."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/articl...

More good news. Still too close though.

No, it's fine. As we get closer to June, and the left start to cotton on to TTIP and how it might affect NHS services, it will only go one way. It is a superb opportunity, too good to miss, for non-Tories to give Cameron a good kicking.

Talking of which, does anyone agree with me about the spectacular level of ineptitude displayed yet again by Dave? He's got a solid working majority in parliament, Labour are in disarray and run by a bunch of hopeless congenital idiots who the electorate find laughable, and yet Dave's managed to conjure himself into a situation where he may well have to resign. And all over what? A completely pointless (and failed) renegotiation of our terms of EU membership. What an absolutely useless gold-plated duffer!

[FiF]

Scuffers said:

steveT350C said:

Do 'Vote Leave' really want out of the EU?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/05/farage-...

I predict vote leave will fold in the next couple of weeks.

To many egos and Westminster politics.

Not to mention Cummings being a stain on the bedsheets. Not to mention Elliot. Pair of st stirrers more hindrance than anything.

[Scuffers]

I did wonder weeks ago when Farage declined to be alighted with them, clearly he knew what was going on and was being very careful not to get too close, shame the same can't be said for Carswell.

Considering he is supposed to be UKIP, he's gone totally silent of late.

[dandarez]

Scuffers said:

I did wonder weeks ago when Farage declined to be alighted with them, clearly he knew what was going on and was being very careful not to get too close, shame the same can't be said for Carswell.

Considering he is supposed to be UKIP, he's gone totally silent of late.

That's because the press are not giving him the airplay like they did. Pity he missed QT last night.
He's still vocal if you look.
There will be lots of dirty tricks in the run-up to the Referendum. Gravy train jobs are at risk!

However, Grassroots Out is the one to follow, a mixture of across the board politicians and people.

Meeting tonight in Manchester, over 2000 tickets booked.

Can be watched live here
http://livestream.com/accounts/16851580/events/478...

[turbobloke]

The Times front page - Out vote surges to record gap at 9 percentage points


The Express front page has 92% wanting Out (not in the referendum unfortunately)


It sure looks as though voters are indeed rejecting CMD's cobblers so at least it won't be a shoo-in on the day.