The 'No to the EU' campaign

[s2art]

FiF said:

Indeed. Fear Uncertainty Doubt. It's all they have really.

Oh and cheaper roaming charges.

Having said that the Out campaign do need to spell out the plan to practically achieve exit. The plans / ideas that have already been developed need to be really polished up and put into formats which can be easily digested. Many people aren't sufficiently interested to go into the details so might just allow the FUD campaign to gain mileage.

The Flexit plan has plenty of detail, at least for the initial stages. It would be pointless to try and plan further then that as no battle plan survives contact with the enemy, or words to that effect.

[AJS-]

V8 Fettler
Even if you hold the view that Germany needs "shackling" why is the EU the best way to do this? A political union can't help but favour the largest and most economically powerful member state. Strong independent countries would seem to me far better placed to preserve their autonomy than junior members of the EU.

[V8 Fettler]

Axel987 said:

which you seem to have a problem with.

You've confused yourself. I have no problem with Germany being shackled by close links with other countries.

[V8 Fettler]

Einion Yrth said:

Amazing, on the one hand we have "leaving the eu will cost is billionzzzz of jobs" crew, and on the other we now have the "germans are all psycopaths who will murder us all in out beds" crew. Neither argument is even remotely credible.

I can't find that statement on this thread, other than in your post. Is this something you've made up?

[V8 Fettler]

dirk01 said:

I think it is fair to say that neither side has put together a coherent argument on this thread as yet.

Impossible without reasonably accurate financial forecasts. Which will probably not be issued, leaving the decision making process based on a manic media frenzy and pontificating politicos. Ridiculous for something so important.

[AJS-]

V8 Fettler said:

Impossible without reasonably accurate financial forecasts. Which will probably not be issued, leaving the decision making process based on a manic media frenzy and pontificating politicos. Ridiculous for something so important.

How do you propose such a forecast would be made?

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

V8 Fettler
Even if you hold the view that Germany needs "shackling" why is the EU the best way to do this? A political union can't help but favour the largest and most economically powerful member state. Strong independent countries would seem to me far better placed to preserve their autonomy than junior members of the EU.

I doubt if full political union will ever occur, the nations involved are too disparate.

I don't think there's any doubt that the German economy is shackled by the smallest nations within the EU, and I'm sure that many Germans recognise that; it creates balance, although there is an element of hanging on to the shirt tails.

For the eastern Europeans, throwing off communism and joining the EU is probably half way to paradise, and for a small European country it's better to be inside, have a seat at the table with some influence and create balance, rather than looking in from outside. Everybody recognises that the UK is not a small European country, it's a different ball game.

If we leave the EU completely i.e. outside of the free trade area then will the UK be financially stronger? I don't know, where is the data?
If the vote is for "EU lite" then will the UK be financially stronger? I don't know, where is the data?
If the vote is for minimal change then will the UK be financially stronger? I don't know, where is the data?

It astounded me that the Scottish independence referendum went ahead with the dismal lack of info available to make an informed decision. Currently, there is little meaningful economic data concerning our future membership of the EU, which clearly favours the flailing emotionalists.

[Blib]

I'm getting up to speed on this matter. Which ones are the 'flailing emotionalists' ?

Thanking you.

[zygalski]

V8 Fettler said:

dirk01 said:

I think it is fair to say that neither side has put together a coherent argument on this thread as yet.

Impossible without reasonably accurate financial forecasts. Which will probably not be issued, leaving the decision making process based on a manic media frenzy and pontificating politicos. Ridiculous for something so important.

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

[AJS-]

I agree it will never occur, but that is definitely not stopping them from trying very hard. The harder they push against this basic truth the worse the eventual fallout will be.

I definitely wouldn't agree that the EU is an effective way of suppressing German power.

You've mentioned this about data a few times, but really what are you expecting? There is no formula, model or data that can accurately predict the future. There are too many variables and too many things which would impact it which can't possibly be predicted.

To take just one example, how different would the equation be if oil went back to $100 a barrel a year after we left? Or down to $20?

How about if there was another financial crisis in the far east? Or a US raise interest rates and the dollar rises?

Then there's the impact that our exit will have on the EU itself - what if Denmark or Sweden or anywhere else decide to leave too? Will Brussels do as some think and spitefully block trade between Britain and the EU.

All of these things and dozens, probably hundreds or even thousands more will have a different impact depending on our trading arrangements with the remainder of the EU, which at this stage haven't even been debated. I suppose it would be logical to do this after rejecting EU membership in a referendum, but it's hard to make a case to do that without some idea where we're going first.

What data are you hoping to see?

[Blib]

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

[zygalski]

Blib said:

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

That's speculation, as is saying we're ok now but we'd be so much better if we left the EU.
I was dealing in fact instead

[turbobloke]

zygalski said:

Blib said:

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

That's speculation, as is saying we're ok now but we'd be so much better if we left the EU.
I was dealing in fact instead

I'm in the AA and my business is fine.

Fact. So what?

I could leave the AA and join RAC. The UK could leave the EU and join, well, take your choice. More facts

[Blib]

zygalski said:

Blib said:

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

That's speculation, as is saying we're ok now but we'd be so much better if we left the EU.
I was dealing in fact instead

Where did I say that the UK should leave the EU?

Please don't make things up to support your arguement.

[zygalski]

turbobloke said:

zygalski said:

Blib said:

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

That's speculation, as is saying we're ok now but we'd be so much better if we left the EU.
I was dealing in fact instead

I'm in the AA and my business is fine.

Fact. So what?

I could leave the AA and join RAC. The UK could leave the EU and join, well, take your choice. More facts

Irrelevant as you can't compare 2 companies which offer the same service to being part of the world's largest political & economic union or not.
I do wish you'd choose quality of reply over quantity. Less forum spamming would improve your output no end, and perhaps mean less meaningless posts such as that one.

[turbobloke]

zygalski said:

turbobloke said:

zygalski said:

Blib said:

zygalski said:

Well, we are in the EU at the moment & the economy is ok. The guesswork is related to leaving the EU.

It could be argued that our economy is OK merely because we are not members of the Euro. An EU construct that is currently tearing its members apart.

That's speculation, as is saying we're ok now but we'd be so much better if we left the EU.
I was dealing in fact instead

I'm in the AA and my business is fine.

Fact. So what?

I could leave the AA and join RAC. The UK could leave the EU and join, well, take your choice. More facts

Irrelevant as you can't compare 2 companies which offer the same service to being part of the world's largest political & economic union or not.

Not at all. You got the wrong end of the stick, presumably deliberately.

In the first half of my post I was comparing one irrelevancy with another.

Your irrelevant comment wasn't relevant

We're doing OK for reasons other than being in the EU. My business is doing OK for reasons other than me being in the AA.

he EU is a supranational bloated dead weight on the UK's back, if it's anything.

We could join EFTA or NAFTA just as I could join the RAC. Would either be sufficient for us to prosper as a nation? Is a club membership the be all and end all? See under 'Greece'.

At least I get breakdown cover for less than £33m per day.

zygalski said:

I do wish you'd choose quality of reply over quantity. Less forum spamming would improve your output no end, and perhaps mean less meaningless posts such as that one.

Your concern is as touching as your assessment is unbiased.

I won't join in, as your own posts (particularly the frequent personal angles as here) are evidence enough without the need for any embellishment.

[FiF]

AJS- said:

I agree it will never occur, but that is definitely not stopping them from trying very hard. The harder they push against this basic truth the worse the eventual fallout will be.

I definitely wouldn't agree that the EU is an effective way of suppressing German power.

You've mentioned this about data a few times, but really what are you expecting? There is no formula, model or data that can accurately predict the future. There are too many variables and too many things which would impact it which can't possibly be predicted.

To take just one example, how different would the equation be if oil went back to $100 a barrel a year after we left? Or down to $20?

How about if there was another financial crisis in the far east? Or a US raise interest rates and the dollar rises?

Then there's the impact that our exit will have on the EU itself - what if Denmark or Sweden or anywhere else decide to leave too? Will Brussels do as some think and spitefully block trade between Britain and the EU.

All of these things and dozens, probably hundreds or even thousands more will have a different impact depending on our trading arrangements with the remainder of the EU, which at this stage haven't even been debated. I suppose it would be logical to do this after rejecting EU membership in a referendum, but it's hard to make a case to do that without some idea where we're going first.

What data are you hoping to see?

You've beaten me to the draw there as that's pretty much what I was about to say.

All the studies so far afaik with all the variables and unknowns come out at +/- a bit, with a margin of error on top of that. So far there is no conclusive one way or the other analysis.

Problem is that then people pick the bits they like and big those up, plus denigrate the bits and assumptions they don't like in order to support their stance.

Mind you nobody ever mentions Uk exposure to the EU, Europeans Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, EIB and finally the ECB. Hundreds of billions of exposure when/if it all goes tits up.

But let's say there isn't an overwhelming economic argument for either option.

Would the EU adopt spiteful policies to punish a country which leaves? I guess the EU wouldn't as nobody wins a trade / tariff war. Though to be fair one can imagine the most self centred and selfish country in the EU acting spitefully and against any EU agreement. I am, of course, talking about France.

But the decision comes down to more than economic guesstimates, as important as they are.

Some people will not be bothered in the slightest over the democratic deficit and question of subsidiarity, others will. Some won't be in the slightest concern over regulations where we have little say, others will. What is it this week? Iirc the design and flushing of urinals regulations ffs.

Cap, cfp, the Brussels Strasbourg commute, the finances/ account fiasco, the complete inability to work together to deal with common problems eg migrant crisis or terrorism threat, their habit of ignoring their own laws when it suits, the replacement of leaders with puppets if they get too uppity eg Italy and Greece though the latter didn't go well, this constant push for integration - never going to get there so just admit it ffs.

One big unknown about exit, which AJS- references is what will happen in the event of Brexit. There always seems to be the assumption by the stay in crowd that the EU will just go on going on. This is one of the worst assumptions to make as imo it won't. There will be a tremendous fall out and not really sure where that one will go.

[zygalski]

Agreed.
If the UK is helping prop up the EU & we leave, I don't see how the potential collapse of the market with which we do 2/3 of our trade with would help us in the longer term.

[Blib]

It seems to be collapsing pretty much with us still in it. Greece is small fry. Italy? France? Both basket cases too. Let's not menton Portugal, Ireland or Spain.

[AJS-]

In the longer term the collapse of the whole of the EU would probably be a good thing IMO.

Greece is the eye of the storm at the moment, but the real story here is nigh on 25 years of stagnation and high unemployment across most of Europe. It's not all directly the fault of the EU itself, but Europe's habit of inflexible regulations, high taxes, and the Euro and ERM before it have all played their part. The EU by centralising this sort of thing rather than letting countries and regions compete against each other seems to help perpetuate it.