The 'No to the EU' campaign

[AJS-]

Who do you propose would do such an analysis? And do you have any idea how they would go about it?

[FiF]

AJS- said:

Who do you propose would do such an analysis? And do you have any idea how they would go about it?

Several people have tried and unless the answer agrees with the reader's prejudices they pick out the assumptions and forecasts they don't like, criticise those, slag off the conclusions, never come up with anything better and then dismiss the whole work with a comment about kippers or lefty academics.

You could link to a 1000 studies and he would be no different. This is a diversionary tactic from answering the issue that it's about a lot more than an economic analysis which is but one facet.

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

V8 Fettler said:

You might be right re: Common Market vs EU, perhaps that should be the referendum choice.

No such choice has ever really been on offer. The 1957 Treaty of Rome, which we signed up to in 1973 is about political union.

Then perhaps this option should now be on offer.

[AJS-]

The only way of achieving that would be to vote Out and then renegotiate a customs union type deal with the European Union. This does is not what Cameron is going for, or has ever said he would go for.

There are various options available outside the EU, a customs union is one, but these are most certainly not available without throwing out the Treaties of Rome, Maastricht and Lisbon which are very much about political union. It would also depend on actually reaching that deal with the remaining EU, and that is something that Cameron hasn't even attempted, one can only presume because he firmly believes in us being members of a political union in some form. Neither Farage nor anyone else from the Out campaign seems to have done this, and it doesn't seem likely that the EU would be interested in engaging with him to do so ahead of the referendum.

[V8 Fettler]

FiF said:

AJS- said:

Who do you propose would do such an analysis? And do you have any idea how they would go about it?

Several people have tried and unless the answer agrees with the reader's prejudices they pick out the assumptions and forecasts they don't like, criticise those, slag off the conclusions, never come up with anything better and then dismiss the whole work with a comment about kippers or lefty academics.

You could link to a 1000 studies and he would be no different. This is a diversionary tactic from answering the issue that it's about a lot more than an economic analysis which is but one facet.

I am but a humble punter who has no relevant expertise. although I end up paying for everything. The various protagonists need to offer their views for evaluation and consideration. If the Bank of England can be considered independent then let's have their view. CBI view will be important.

I would assume that meaningful analyses would be undertaken competently and transparently. As the humble punter I should not be setting the detail; consider it a performance specification

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

The only way of achieving that would be to vote Out and then renegotiate a customs union type deal with the European Union. This does is not what Cameron is going for, or has ever said he would go for.

There are various options available outside the EU, a customs union is one, but these are most certainly not available without throwing out the Treaties of Rome, Maastricht and Lisbon which are very much about political union. It would also depend on actually reaching that deal with the remaining EU, and that is something that Cameron hasn't even attempted, one can only presume because he firmly believes in us being members of a political union in some form. Neither Farage nor anyone else from the Out campaign seems to have done this, and it doesn't seem likely that the EU would be interested in engaging with him to do so ahead of the referendum.

Everything can be negotiated.

[V8 Fettler]

Guam said:

V8 Fettler said:

Everything can be negotiated.

That's what the Greeks thought, how has that worked out again?

Greeks have minimal negotiating power, and their negotiators were incompetent. The UK has substantial leverage and - hopefully - competent negotiators.

The Greek situation is shambolic, it's as if all parties concerned set off with the intention of crashing and burning. Posturing idiots.

[AJS-]

Well, the CBI certainly has a view on EU membership and they are not shy of making it known. The IoD have said contradictory things. The Bank of England deal with our monetary policy first and foremost, that is interest rates and the money supply. They can have a stab at making macroeconomic predictions, but they're not likely to be very accurate for the same reasons as everyone else. The data simply doesn't exist.

Stop being a "humble" punter and take your own view. None of the so-called experts can really tell you, they can just present their own opinions in elaborate ways.

Yes everything can be negotiated and I don't see any reason that post Out we can't negotiate a deal which will allow mutually beneficial trade and investment without requiring political union.

[AJS-]

Just looking at the opinion polling on this here.

What happened? Why did people suddenly start supporting EU membership? Or is it the results that the people commissioning the polls want?

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

Well, the CBI certainly has a view on EU membership and they are not shy of making it known. The IoD have said contradictory things. The Bank of England deal with our monetary policy first and foremost, that is interest rates and the money supply. They can have a stab at making macroeconomic predictions, but they're not likely to be very accurate for the same reasons as everyone else. The data simply doesn't exist.

Stop being a "humble" punter and take your own view. None of the so-called experts can really tell you, they can just present their own opinions in elaborate ways.

Yes everything can be negotiated and I don't see any reason that post Out we can't negotiate a deal which will allow mutually beneficial trade and investment without requiring political union.

As far as I am aware, the CBI hasn't issued data. The Bank of England is reportedly working on a secret report, who knows where it is.

I'll take my view when I have sufficient data and information for it to be an informed view. Negotiating from "outside" reduces leverage for the negotiation process compared to negotiating from "inside". If the negotiating teams take a competent pragmatic long-term view then the options for "outside" can be determined whilst still "inside".

[AJS-]

How does negotiating from outside reduce our leverage? Our position then is that we're leaving anyway, let's make this work for both of us. While we may be able to get some concessions from inside they certainly have no incentive to make it attractive for us to leave. What's more Cameron doesn't seem willing to use the prospect of us leaving as a lever with which to negotiate. Everything he has said so far indicated that he will support staying in under his reforms, whatever they may be.

[FiF]

AJS- said:

Well, the CBI certainly has a view on EU membership and they are not shy of making it known. The IoD have said contradictory things. The Bank of England deal with our monetary policy first and foremost, that is interest rates and the money supply. They can have a stab at making macroeconomic predictions, but they're not likely to be very accurate for the same reasons as everyone else. The data simply doesn't exist.

Stop being a "humble" punter and take your own view. None of the so-called experts can really tell you, they can just present their own opinions in elaborate ways.

Yes everything can be negotiated and I don't see any reason that post Out we can't negotiate a deal which will allow mutually beneficial trade and investment without requiring political union.

Funnily enough CBI was told in no uncertain terms yesterday to STFU by a Conservative minister as their incessant campaigning for in was damaging the negotiations with the EU.

Secondly V8 seems to think the CBI will be objective which shows extreme naivety. The CBI have a very definite angle, as to be fair does everyone, they are in no way objective, unless their views agree with his then they're as objective and unbiased as possible.

[turbobloke]

FiF said:

AJS- said:

Well, the CBI certainly has a view on EU membership and they are not shy of making it known. The IoD have said contradictory things. The Bank of England deal with our monetary policy first and foremost, that is interest rates and the money supply. They can have a stab at making macroeconomic predictions, but they're not likely to be very accurate for the same reasons as everyone else. The data simply doesn't exist.

Stop being a "humble" punter and take your own view. None of the so-called experts can really tell you, they can just present their own opinions in elaborate ways.

Yes everything can be negotiated and I don't see any reason that post Out we can't negotiate a deal which will allow mutually beneficial trade and investment without requiring political union.

Funnily enough CBI was told in no uncertain terms yesterday to STFU by a Conservative minister as their incessant campaigning for in was damaging the negotiations with the EU.

The EU is the CBI’s largest financial contributor.

[V8 Fettler]

FiF said:

Funnily enough CBI was told in no uncertain terms yesterday to STFU by a Conservative minister as their incessant campaigning for in was damaging the negotiations with the EU.

Secondly V8 seems to think the CBI will be objective which shows extreme naivety. The CBI have a very definite angle, as to be fair does everyone, they are in no way objective, unless their views agree with his then they're as objective and unbiased as possible.

You missed the full stop between "view" and "CBI". The CBI's angle should be to represent British industry.

[s2art]

V8 Fettler said:

You missed the full stop between "view" and "CBI". The CBI's angle should be to represent British industry.

Perhaps it should. But then so should the IoD and others. But they disagree. Where does that leave you?

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

How does negotiating from outside reduce our leverage? Our position then is that we're leaving anyway, let's make this work for both of us. While we may be able to get some concessions from inside they certainly have no incentive to make it attractive for us to leave. What's more Cameron doesn't seem willing to use the prospect of us leaving as a lever with which to negotiate. Everything he has said so far indicated that he will support staying in under his reforms, whatever they may be.

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

[V8 Fettler]

turbobloke said:

FiF said:

AJS- said:

Well, the CBI certainly has a view on EU membership and they are not shy of making it known. The IoD have said contradictory things. The Bank of England deal with our monetary policy first and foremost, that is interest rates and the money supply. They can have a stab at making macroeconomic predictions, but they're not likely to be very accurate for the same reasons as everyone else. The data simply doesn't exist.

Stop being a "humble" punter and take your own view. None of the so-called experts can really tell you, they can just present their own opinions in elaborate ways.

Yes everything can be negotiated and I don't see any reason that post Out we can't negotiate a deal which will allow mutually beneficial trade and investment without requiring political union.

Funnily enough CBI was told in no uncertain terms yesterday to STFU by a Conservative minister as their incessant campaigning for in was damaging the negotiations with the EU.

The EU is the CBI’s largest financial contributor.

I wasn't aware that the EU was a member of the CBI. Or was it a direct financial contribution in the form of a grant?

[s2art]

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

[turbobloke]

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

Then again Germans don't want to sell BMWs or Mercs or Porsches or VWs or Audis to us, the French aren't interested in flogging Peugeots or Renaults or Citroens, Bosch won't miss UK sales, French fashionistas have no interest in London and the UK market, Belgian choccy and lace likewise(etc).

(Brexit would mean damage limitation for the EU not the UK.)

[V8 Fettler]

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

Rules? There will be plenty of latitude for both sides at this stage. But as soon as there's public posturing with big sticks it will fall apart, see current mess in Greece.