The 'No to the EU' campaign

[FiF]

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

You missed the full stop between "view" and "CBI". The CBI's angle should be to represent British industry.

Perhaps it should. But then so should the IoD and others. But they disagree. Where does that leave you?

The CBI can only speak for their members be they direct members or through trade associations. They only represent one third of private sector industry. Of course their view is of relevance but it's biased by their angle and their assumptions. It's no more authoritative than that ballocks spewed by Branson recently.

[Mrr T]

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

Any connection between the WTO and a ton of bricks is the speed they move. The WTO takes years to resolve disputes.

Also the WTO does not cover financial services so if the UK exists the EU with out a recognition agreement on oversight and regulations of financial services every bank regulated in the UK, and I include all the US banks whose headquarters are based in London; and operate across the EU would immediately need to create a HQ in an EU in country or stop operations across the EU.

[s2art]

Mrr T said:

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

Any connection between the WTO and a ton of bricks is the speed they move. The WTO takes years to resolve disputes.

Also the WTO does not cover financial services so if the UK exists the EU with out a recognition agreement on oversight and regulations of financial services every bank regulated in the UK, and I include all the US banks whose headquarters are based in London; and operate across the EU would immediately need to create a HQ in an EU in country or stop operations across the EU.

Not sure about that. Does UBS or Credite Suisse (sp?) have EU based HQs?

[V8 Fettler]

turbobloke said:

s2art said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

What door would be shut? The WTO would come down on them like a ton of bricks if they didnt follow WTO rules.

Then again Germans don't want to sell BMWs or Mercs or Porsches or VWs or Audis to us, the French aren't interested in flogging Peugeots or Renaults or Citroens, Bosch won't miss UK sales, French fashionistas have no interest in London and the UK market, Belgian choccy and lace likewise(etc).

(Brexit would mean damage limitation for the EU not the UK.)

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

[s2art]

V8 Fettler said:

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

From John Redwood;

'But won’t such cars be submitted to HMRC’s 10% import duty?

Reply No, it’s an EU duty which we would not apply unless Germany and France applied it to us, which they have indicted they will not for obvious reasons.'

[AJS-]

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

That seems to assume that leaving the EU is fundamentally bad and the objective of any negotiation is "damage limitation". Not true.

To start negotiations from the point of view that we will stay in anyway seems to be hugely limiting our objectives.

[mph1977]

V8 Fettler said:

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

exactly

also the arseperational market in the UK will still want it's German brands ...

[s2art]

mph1977 said:

V8 Fettler said:

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

exactly

also the arseperational market in the UK will still want it's German brands ...

Yup, and the Germans will bend over backwards to ensure they still have full access to treasure island. Money talks, there will be no tariffs.

[Murph7355]

V8 Fettler said:

Murph7355 said:

V8 Fettler said:

No-one in their right mind would seek to dismantle a commercial enterprise without a cost/benefit analysis, do you not think we should try and do something similar before making substantial changes in our relationship with Europe? There will be an element of crystal ball gazing, there should also be an element of accurate forecasting.

How do you view Germany? Democratic with a free market economy? Or a centralised bureaucracy with a directed economy?

Perhaps we could dust off the one used for going into Europe as a start...

You've not answered the question re: German economy. The UK did not join the Common Market to reduce the risk of war between Germany and France (the historical basis for the creation of the predecessors of the EU), the UK joined primarily to have influence on European affairs and for improved access to the European market.

In reverse order...

We'll find out in 2017 but IMO the people of this country may have been (and be) fine with better trade ties at the outset....that makes sense. But I doubt influencing European affairs was high on the agenda for change.

But it's worth noting I never mentioned the war...however now you have, would that potentially not be part of "...primarily to have influence on European affairs ..."? Not that it matters.

Next, what does my opinion of Germany's economy have to do with anything? I happen to think that Germany has always had a pretty protectionist view about its companies/economy. However it's irrelevant. Elsewhere I've noted I believe the economics to be a side show.

Now, when it comes to not answering questions...I refer you to your opening statement quoted above. That being the case, why don't we revisit the business case that took us into this institution in the first place?

[mph1977]

s2art said:

Yup, and the Germans will bend over backwards to ensure they still have full access to treasure island. Money talks, there will be no tariffs.

the arseperational will still have ot have their german brands ... WTO tarriffs will make little difference to the Germans - BMW and M-B long ago gave up any pretence of being a prestige maker, ditto Audi

[grantone]

V8 Fettler said:

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

An alternative guess is that the biggest and most vocal opponent of further EU political union leaving is actually beneficial to the political union ambitions. That it's actually a positive thing for the UK to be gone so that they can get on properly with the fiscal & political union they need to make the Eurozone work.

So 2018 with their least contributing member gone (Greece) and their least integrated member gone (UK), they finally crack on and make a massively successful United States of Europe. (I'm not being sarcastic here, it's a possibility).

UK might do well out of it, might not, depends on how agile we are to make the most of whatever unknown events occur.

What is more of a certainty than a guess is that a successful EU political union won't happen in the next 30 years if the UK stay in because we'll just bh & moan & veto & block and generally drag things out.

[Murph7355]

V8 Fettler said:

...
You seem to be quite negative and defeatist about the ability to forecast. There may well be elements with unknown factors, hence reference to crystal ball gazing; broad brush will be fine. Bank of England are secretly looking at costs, CBI must be doing something similar.

V8 Fettler said:

Murph7355 said:

The problem with broad brush is that it can be stroked multiple ways. Which you don't want, so really broad brush won't do.
...

Stroke a brush? Why would you do that? Broad brush = ignore details.
...

Didn't you note broad brush was OK?

There is no definitive model that can be used. Forecasts aren't worth st. If someone could come up with one that wasn't, they'd be extremely wealthy.

The EUs own accounts don't even pass muster FFS.

Trade will still happen. The financial "debates" are red herrings.

As for how soon the EU will get its army...if we stay in, and enough countries commit in that way, it will happen much sooner than you think.

The only way I can see it ever reverting back to purely trade agreements is if significant enough members get out of the union, and we have a reset.

[V8 Fettler]

s2art said:

From John Redwood;

'But won’t such cars be submitted to HMRC’s 10% import duty?

Reply No, it’s an EU duty which we would not apply unless Germany and France applied it to us, which they have indicted they will not for obvious reasons.'

You're struggling if you're relying on something from John Redwood.

[V8 Fettler]

AJS- said:

V8 Fettler said:

To commence negotiations from outside risks the door being shut. Whoever negotiates for the UK needs to negotiate for all possible referendum results before the referendum. At least try and manage the process with damage limitation in mind rather than firefighting.

That seems to assume that leaving the EU is fundamentally bad and the objective of any negotiation is "damage limitation". Not true.

To start negotiations from the point of view that we will stay in anyway seems to be hugely limiting our objectives.

We don't know if leaving the EU is good or bad, we don't currently have the data and information to make that decision. Negotiations at this stage cannot be from the point of view that we will stay in, the referendum hasn't occurred yet

[V8 Fettler]

Murph7355 said:

V8 Fettler said:

Murph7355 said:

V8 Fettler said:

No-one in their right mind would seek to dismantle a commercial enterprise without a cost/benefit analysis, do you not think we should try and do something similar before making substantial changes in our relationship with Europe? There will be an element of crystal ball gazing, there should also be an element of accurate forecasting.

How do you view Germany? Democratic with a free market economy? Or a centralised bureaucracy with a directed economy?

Perhaps we could dust off the one used for going into Europe as a start...

You've not answered the question re: German economy. The UK did not join the Common Market to reduce the risk of war between Germany and France (the historical basis for the creation of the predecessors of the EU), the UK joined primarily to have influence on European affairs and for improved access to the European market.

In reverse order...

We'll find out in 2017 but IMO the people of this country may have been (and be) fine with better trade ties at the outset....that makes sense. But I doubt influencing European affairs was high on the agenda for change.

But it's worth noting I never mentioned the war...however now you have, would that potentially not be part of "...primarily to have influence on European affairs ..."? Not that it matters.

Next, what does my opinion of Germany's economy have to do with anything? I happen to think that Germany has always had a pretty protectionist view about its companies/economy. However it's irrelevant. Elsewhere I've noted I believe the economics to be a side show.

Now, when it comes to not answering questions...I refer you to your opening statement quoted above. That being the case, why don't we revisit the business case that took us into this institution in the first place?

Influencing European affairs was high in the priorities of British politicians in the 1960s and early 1970s. Cheap fags and booze were higher in the priorities of the voters in 1975.

Reduced risk of military conflict in Western Europe was the primary driver for the founding of the Common Market, as I'm sure you know.

Ploughing back through the thread (no!), you quoted but didn't answer;

">
How do you view Germany? Democratic with a free market economy? Or a centralised bureaucracy with a directed economy?
<"

Feel free to visit the business case from 40+ years ago whenever you want

[Scuffers]

V8 Fettler said:

We don't know if leaving the EU is good or bad, we don't currently have the data and information to make that decision. Negotiations at this stage cannot be from the point of view that we will stay in, the referendum hasn't occurred yet

not quite sure what you're looking for here?

between now and the referendum, you are not going to get anything resembling accurate data/forecasts of what will or won't happen.

quite simply, the politicians don't know and actually have little say in the matter, buisness is buisness, it will carry on no matter what (despite the politicians).

what you can be certain of is there will be no trade/tariff war, business will just not stand for it.

[V8 Fettler]

grantone said:

V8 Fettler said:

My GUESS is that France and Germany will currently be agreeing the EU stance on negotiations, all the other member states are also rans. The survival of the EU in its current form is an absolute imperative for Germany, its also very important to France. If the departure of the UK is unavoidable, one scenario is that the French/Germans give the UK a good shoeing on the way out through the door pour encourager les autres. If the UK departs on favourable terms it will signal to other EU countries that an exit could be beneficial = terminal decline of the EU.

The (West) German economy is powerful enough to ride the loss of a large percentage of their current UK market share; it's been bank rolling what was East Germany and a large part of Europe for 25 years and more.

I have to go now to drink beer (English).

An alternative guess is that the biggest and most vocal opponent of further EU political union leaving is actually beneficial to the political union ambitions. That it's actually a positive thing for the UK to be gone so that they can get on properly with the fiscal & political union they need to make the Eurozone work.

So 2018 with their least contributing member gone (Greece) and their least integrated member gone (UK), they finally crack on and make a massively successful United States of Europe. (I'm not being sarcastic here, it's a possibility).

UK might do well out of it, might not, depends on how agile we are to make the most of whatever unknown events occur.

What is more of a certainty than a guess is that a successful EU political union won't happen in the next 30 years if the UK stay in because we'll just bh & moan & veto & block and generally drag things out.

There will be many guesses at this point, but the key issue is the German/French commitment to the EU, if that drifts then the EU is finished. If the German/French commitment to the EU remains strong then they will be intent on the UK remaining within the EU; bickering and sniping will not affect that intention.

If the UK leaves the EU and the German/French commitment to the EU remains strong during that the process then the number one priority for Germany/France will be to ensure that other countries don't follow the British lead.

[V8 Fettler]

Scuffers said:

V8 Fettler said:

We don't know if leaving the EU is good or bad, we don't currently have the data and information to make that decision. Negotiations at this stage cannot be from the point of view that we will stay in, the referendum hasn't occurred yet

not quite sure what you're looking for here?

between now and the referendum, you are not going to get anything resembling accurate data/forecasts of what will or won't happen.

quite simply, the politicians don't know and actually have little say in the matter, buisness is buisness, it will carry on no matter what (despite the politicians).

what you can be certain of is there will be no trade/tariff war, business will just not stand for it.

Looking for data and information, is that not obvious? You state that this will not be forthcoming, why not?

[Scuffers]

V8 Fettler said:

Looking for data and information, is that not obvious? You state that this will not be forthcoming, why not?

data from who?

you honestly think the politicians have access to enough valid data?

[anonymous-user]

The EU could probably score major points by threatening no access to the free trade area without free movement of people. So much of the brexit argument has been framed around immigration and that it'd be business as usual afterwards-they'd head that off at the pass straight away by withdrawing one or the other.

Is the idea that we'd leave the EU but still have free movement of people so stupid as I've been told before?