The 'No to the EU' campaign

[Einion Yrth]

AJS- said:

I can't really think of many worse reasons to stay in the EU than a fear o spiteful reprisals if we leave. It's like advising a beaten wife not to leave her husband as leaving will anger him.

It appears to be the only argument that the euphiles have; well that and RYH64E's "I'm doing very nicely thank you, screw the rest of you, and coming generations" - which is at least honest, if contemptible.

[RYH64E]

davepoth said:

Ah, but but behind the politics is economics again. Germany needs Greece in the Euro (and a basket case in the Euro) to keep its trade surplus from causing the Euro to appreciate.

Schauble was very much ready to kick Greece out of the euro and the EU, mostly to send a message to other EU states. Read some of the articles by Varoufakis to get an insight into the German approach.

[AJS-]

Einion Yrth said:

AJS- said:

I can't really think of many worse reasons to stay in the EU than a fear o spiteful reprisals if we leave. It's like advising a beaten wife not to leave her husband as leaving will anger him.

It appears to be the only argument that the euphiles have; well that and RYH64E's "I'm doing very nicely thank you, screw the rest of you, and coming generations" - which is at least honest, if contemptible.

In fairness, I have more admiration for his honesty than I have contempt for his fear of upsetting his livelihood. Unlike France and Germany who initially saw it as a way to stop fighting each other, the only argument there has ever really been for Britain's membership of the EU was financial advantage from open trade and investment, set against grim forecasts of poverty and marginalisation outside.

I suspect if most people actually analysed their situation in those terms and weighed up whether the tangible benefits were worth the costs, to say nothing of sacrificing democratic governance for, then we would be out of the EU fairly quickly.

[FiF]

To be fair, going back to the time Britain joined, for many reasons we were one of the poorer nations in Northern Europe. However as time has proven the EU experiment wasn't the correct answer.

[steveT350C]

Open letter to Sir Mike Rake, President, CBI
From Ruth Lea

http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...

[turbobloke]

steveT350C said:

Open letter to Sir Mike Rake, President, CBI
From Ruth Lea

http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...

Excellent.

Timely, accurate and well-aimed.

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

steveT350C said:

Open letter to Sir Mike Rake, President, CBI
From Ruth Lea

http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...

Excellent.

Timely, accurate and well-aimed.

Full of assumptions and guesswork, for instance 'The UK and the EU would surely negotiate a mutually beneficial trade agreement'. Would surely? Really? Head over to the discussion in the 'End of the euro is nigh' thread and see how far logic and economic common sense can be relied on when negotiating with the EU, with specific refenece to the current situation in Greece, a country who have been royally screwed over as a warning to other member states. As an old boss of mine was fond of saying, the word assume can be interpreted as meaning make an ass out of u and me. I'm certainly not assuming that we would surely end up with a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

It's about politics, not economics, and if the EU want to send a message to other countries considering exit from the EU then a flourishing, prosperous, post-Brexit UK would not be it.

[FiF]

turbobloke said:

steveT350C said:

Open letter to Sir Mike Rake, President, CBI
From Ruth Leako

http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...

Excellent.

Timely, accurate and well-aimed.

Absolutely spot on letter, especially the last paragraph, a question repeatedly asked on here, and equally repeatedly sidestepped by the in crowd.

[AJS-]

RYH64E said:

Full of assumptions and guesswork, for instance 'The UK and the EU would surely negotiate a mutually beneficial trade agreement'. Would surely? Really? Head over to the discussion in the 'End of the euro is nigh' thread and see how far logic and economic common sense can be relied on when negotiating with the EU, with specific refenece to the current situation in Greece, a country who have been royally screwed over as a warning to other member states. As an old boss of mine was fond of saying, the word assume can be interpreted as meaning make an ass out of u and me. I'm certainly not assuming that we would surely end up with a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

It's about politics, not economics, and if the EU want to send a message to other countries considering exit from the EU then a flourishing, prosperous, post-Brexit UK would not be it.

So going back to my earlier point, are you really happy with our being part of a country which is run that way?

I know from what you've said that you are currently benefiting from trade with the EU, but is being part of an organisation which has proven itself irrational and destructive in pursuit of it's political agenda really a good situation for us to be in? And to continue to cede further powers to?

[confused_buyer]

RYH64E said:

It's about politics, not economics, and if the EU want to send a message to other countries considering exit from the EU then a flourishing, prosperous, post-Brexit UK would not be it.

True, but there would be less Audis on the roads, so it 's not all negative.

[Mark Benson]

AJS- said:

RYH64E said:

Full of assumptions and guesswork, for instance 'The UK and the EU would surely negotiate a mutually beneficial trade agreement'. Would surely? Really? Head over to the discussion in the 'End of the euro is nigh' thread and see how far logic and economic common sense can be relied on when negotiating with the EU, with specific refenece to the current situation in Greece, a country who have been royally screwed over as a warning to other member states. As an old boss of mine was fond of saying, the word assume can be interpreted as meaning make an ass out of u and me. I'm certainly not assuming that we would surely end up with a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

It's about politics, not economics, and if the EU want to send a message to other countries considering exit from the EU then a flourishing, prosperous, post-Brexit UK would not be it.

So going back to my earlier point, are you really happy with our being part of a country which is run that way?

I know from what you've said that you are currently benefiting from trade with the EU, but is being part of an organisation which has proven itself irrational and destructive in pursuit of it's political agenda really a good situation for us to be in? And to continue to cede further powers to?

RYH64E is right, this will be about politics not economics, but his assessment of the outcome is, I think wrong.

Say the EU does decide to cut us off economically pour encourager les autres - they've just lost not only a major contributor in terms of membership fees, but (according to Ruth Lea) also our £77bn trace deficit too - in what condition would that leave an already weakened EU?

While the aim might be to hobble Britain, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and arguably sending the message to other countries that being in the EU will drag them down with it.

[AJS-]

Mark Benson said:

RYH64E is right, this will be about politics not economics, but his assessment of the outcome is, I think wrong.

Say the EU does decide to cut us off economically pour encourager les autres - they've just lost not only a major contributor in terms of membership fees, but (according to Ruth Lea) also our £77bn trace deficit too - in what condition would that leave an already weakened EU?

While the aim might be to hobble Britain, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and arguably sending the message to other countries that being in the EU will drag them down with it.

You're right, but RYH's main point seems to be "but I'm making money from it now, so don't want to rock the boat." Selfish perhaps but also understandable. I am curious as to how far he would stick with this view along the very unpleasant course the EU seems to be taking.

[Mark Benson]

AJS- said:

Mark Benson said:

RYH64E is right, this will be about politics not economics, but his assessment of the outcome is, I think wrong.

Say the EU does decide to cut us off economically pour encourager les autres - they've just lost not only a major contributor in terms of membership fees, but (according to Ruth Lea) also our £77bn trace deficit too - in what condition would that leave an already weakened EU?

While the aim might be to hobble Britain, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and arguably sending the message to other countries that being in the EU will drag them down with it.

You're right, but RYH's main point seems to be "but I'm making money from it now, so don't want to rock the boat." Selfish perhaps but also understandable. I am curious as to how far he would stick with this view along the very unpleasant course the EU seems to be taking.

At least he's honest. And I think for many of us, the 'What's in it for me?' question will be paramount in the coming vote.
I don't want to put words in his mouth, but his answer is likely to be "as long as it's financially beneficial" - surely no different to many on both sides of the argument.

[RYH64E]

AJS- said:

So going back to my earlier point, are you really happy with our being part of a country which is run that way?

I know from what you've said that you are currently benefiting from trade with the EU, but is being part of an organisation which has proven itself irrational and destructive in pursuit of it's political agenda really a good situation for us to be in? And to continue to cede further powers to?

If it were just my company that benefitted from EU trade then the point I am making would be purely personal, but the EU is a significant market for a lot of UK companies and any small disruption to that trade would have a huge effect upon the UK economy. I'm not saying that EU trade would stop overnight, but even a small reduction in export trade would be enough to out us back into recession. During the last recession the worst quarter's performance was a 2.2% drop in GDP, 2.2% doesn't sound a lot but it doesn't take much to cause real problems in the economy. There will certainly be some companies in favour of Brexit, but I would expect the majority of the business community to be in favour of maintaining the (profitable) status quo.

In answer to your question, profit on my EU trade is worth enough to me to override any political concerns I may have. In my world there are two types of problems, there are problems that affect me prsonally, my family, friends and employees, and then there are problems that affect other people. I only worry about the first type of problems, the second type are beyond my ability to control. I'm not overly troubled by a social conscience.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Mark Benson said:

AJS- said:

RYH64E said:

Full of assumptions and guesswork, for instance 'The UK and the EU would surely negotiate a mutually beneficial trade agreement'. Would surely? Really? Head over to the discussion in the 'End of the euro is nigh' thread and see how far logic and economic common sense can be relied on when negotiating with the EU, with specific refenece to the current situation in Greece, a country who have been royally screwed over as a warning to other member states. As an old boss of mine was fond of saying, the word assume can be interpreted as meaning make an ass out of u and me. I'm certainly not assuming that we would surely end up with a mutually beneficial trade agreement.

It's about politics, not economics, and if the EU want to send a message to other countries considering exit from the EU then a flourishing, prosperous, post-Brexit UK would not be it.

So going back to my earlier point, are you really happy with our being part of a country which is run that way?

I know from what you've said that you are currently benefiting from trade with the EU, but is being part of an organisation which has proven itself irrational and destructive in pursuit of it's political agenda really a good situation for us to be in? And to continue to cede further powers to?

RYH64E is right, this will be about politics not economics, but his assessment of the outcome is, I think wrong.

Say the EU does decide to cut us off economically pour encourager les autres - they've just lost not only a major contributor in terms of membership fees, but (according to Ruth Lea) also our £77bn trace deficit too - in what condition would that leave an already weakened EU?

While the aim might be to hobble Britain, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and arguably sending the message to other countries that being in the EU will drag them down with it.

The UK is the second largest net contributor into EU coffers after Germany, and one its biggest markets, as the EU currently sell us, more than we sell into the EU.
One of the worries I have always had about the EU, was that we were in it, because it suited the financial position of a few, at the expense of the many. A worry not helped by the fact that the EU has never been able to conduct an audit into its finances since it started, and reinforced by the onerous terms applied to the UK`s entrance conditions to the `club' by that ungrateful sh*t Degaulle.
Which were partly mitigated by Thatchers securing of the UK`s EU rebate (only to be given away some time later for nothing by Bliar)

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Monday 27th July 11:47

[Mark Benson]

Universities say 'Yes' (while trousering £1bn EU bribe research funds).

[anonymous-user]

Pan Pan Pan said:

The UK is the second largest net contributor into EU coffers after Germany, and one its biggest markets, as the EU currently sell us, more than we sell into the EU.

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 27th July 11:47

But the EU makes up ~50% of our exports/imports whereas if the UK left the Eu-with the same number of exports it'd only be a much smaller fraction of the EU's import/export total. All this "we import more from them" "they need us more than we need them" completely misses the point that the EU economy is much larger and hence the proportion of trade with the UK is a lot smaller than vice versa.

[Scuffers]

cookie118 said:

But the EU makes up ~50% of our exports/imports whereas if the UK left the Eu-with the same number of exports it'd only be a much smaller fraction of the EU's import/export total. All this "we import more from them" "they need us more than we need them" completely misses the point that the EU economy is much larger and hence the proportion of trade with the UK is a lot smaller than vice versa.

Your 50% figure is wildly wrong, for reasons that have already been pointed out several times before.

Ignoring that, its irrelevant, no matter what happens, money talks, business will do what it takes to carry on, for that to happen, the politicians would be on a very short plank.

[anonymous-user]

Scuffers said:

cookie118 said:

But the EU makes up ~50% of our exports/imports whereas if the UK left the Eu-with the same number of exports it'd only be a much smaller fraction of the EU's import/export total. All this "we import more from them" "they need us more than we need them" completely misses the point that the EU economy is much larger and hence the proportion of trade with the UK is a lot smaller than vice versa.

Your 50% figure is wildly wrong, for reasons that have already been pointed out several times before.

Ignoring that, its irrelevant, no matter what happens, money talks, business will do what it takes to carry on, for that to happen, the politicians would be on a very short plank.

What reasons?
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/EUOverseasT...
£26.4 bn exports, £11bn EU
£33.3 bn imports, £17.6bn EU
Wildly wrong??

[PRTVR]

cookie118 said:

Scuffers said:

cookie118 said:

But the EU makes up ~50% of our exports/imports whereas if the UK left the Eu-with the same number of exports it'd only be a much smaller fraction of the EU's import/export total. All this "we import more from them" "they need us more than we need them" completely misses the point that the EU economy is much larger and hence the proportion of trade with the UK is a lot smaller than vice versa.

Your 50% figure is wildly wrong, for reasons that have already been pointed out several times before.

Ignoring that, its irrelevant, no matter what happens, money talks, business will do what it takes to carry on, for that to happen, the politicians would be on a very short plank.

What reasons?
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/EUOverseasT...
£26.4 bn exports, £11bn EU
£33.3 bn imports, £17.6bn EU
Wildly wrong??

Apparently some of the exports counted as going to the EU do not go to the EU, if a ship loads up with cars for the middle East in the UK but docks next in Rotterdam, they are classed in the EU count, one can only surmise why, what advantage could be gained, to make it look like we are more dependent on the EU for trade, maybe.