The 'No to the EU' campaign

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Scuffers

20,887 posts

273 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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By your own figures, that's only 41%

Second problem is that the export figures also include stuff that's final destination is not in the EU.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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Scuffers said:
By your own figures, that's only 41%

Second problem is that the export figures also include stuff that's final destination is not in the EU.
I said 50% of imports/exports-imports is nearly bang on-so not 'wildly wrong'

Also surely this means our import figures from the EU are going to be inflated the same way-and the point still stands that the UK trade with the eu is much smaller proportionally to the EU-so saying they need us more than we need them based on gross figures is incorrect.

treepke

119 posts

104 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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No doubt everything will become clearer once EU audited accounts are released.

turbobloke

103,734 posts

259 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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cookie118 said:
Also surely this means our import figures from the EU are going to be inflated the same way...
That's an assumption which, as it happens, doesn't hold up.

The export Rotterdam-Antwerp effect is significantly larger than the import effect, 2010 figures in £bn are export 4.9 and import 2.9 which is a significant difference.

cookie118 said:
...so saying they need us more than we need them based on gross figures is incorrect.
The picture isn't static, take a look at the trend.

Only one EU state has not seen a decrease in the proportion of its total worldwide trade in goods with EU-28 member states since 2002. It isn't us.

Five EU States have seen a decrease of over 10% with the largest decrease being the UK - down almost 18 percentage points.

It doesn't look like we need the EU as much as In/Yes proponents are fond to claim, not that trade would stop dead on Brexit anyway.

The issue is political in terms of regaining sovereignty, and self-determination in more areas. The prospect of ever closer union with the EU in its present state makes no sense, as clearly set out by Ruth Lea in her open letter to the CBI.

mph1977

12,467 posts

167 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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Pan Pan Pan said:
The UK is the second largest net contributor into EU coffers after Germany, and one its biggest markets, as the EU currently sell us, more than we sell into the EU.
One of the worries I have always had about the EU, was that we were in it, because it suited the financial position of a few, at the expense of the many. A worry not helped by the fact that the EU has never been able to conduct an audit into its finances since it started, and reinforced by the onerous terms applied to the UK`s entrance conditions to the `club' by that ungrateful sh*t Degaulle.
Which were partly mitigated by Thatchers securing of the UK`s EU rebate (only to be given away some time later for nothing by Bliar)

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Monday 27th July 11:47
the emboldened term is used by the antis asa reason why the EU would negotiate a trade deal , rather than just a case of the german car and tech companies and french food and wine producers just sitting back and going " those arsperational English will still but it anyway "...

Funkycoldribena

7,379 posts

153 months

Monday 27th July 2015
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treepke said:
No doubt everything will become clearer once EU audited accounts are released.
Look down the forum,theres a joke thread in the lounge...

Pan Pan Pan

9,777 posts

110 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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mph1977 said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
The UK is the second largest net contributor into EU coffers after Germany, and one its biggest markets, as the EU currently sell us, more than we sell into the EU.
One of the worries I have always had about the EU, was that we were in it, because it suited the financial position of a few, at the expense of the many. A worry not helped by the fact that the EU has never been able to conduct an audit into its finances since it started, and reinforced by the onerous terms applied to the UK`s entrance conditions to the `club' by that ungrateful sh*t Degaulle.
Which were partly mitigated by Thatchers securing of the UK`s EU rebate (only to be given away some time later for nothing by Bliar)

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Monday 27th July 11:47
the emboldened term is used by the antis asa reason why the EU would negotiate a trade deal , rather than just a case of the german car and tech companies and french food and wine producers just sitting back and going " those arsperational English will still but it anyway "...
With the UK being the second largest, net contributor of funds into EU coffers after Germany, the trade is not the most important element in EU minds.
But an organisation which is willing to throw billions at a (known) basket case country, but which to date has been unwilling to discuss and implement much needed reforms to the way it operates, (and which has failed to audit its finances even once since its inception) is clearly corrupt, and not even handed in the way it operates.
With the Greek fiasco now in UK punters minds we now have a clear yardstick to compare how the UK (Its second largest contributor of funds INTO EU coffers) is, and will be treated in relation to other countries. The EU would sh*t itself if it realized that its second largest funder was going to leave.
All the other EU countries would have to stump up even more cash, (to fill the financial hole left in EU coffers by an UK exit) to keep the `Grand Vision' going. And really they only want to keep the `Grand Vision' going, whilst another country and not theirs is paying the second largest share of the costs.
The old saying, He who PAYS the piper, calls the tune, come home to roost every time (eventually)

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 28th July 07:33

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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turbobloke said:
The picture isn't static, take a look at the trend.

Only one EU state has not seen a decrease in the proportion of its total worldwide trade in goods with EU-28 member states since 2002. It isn't us.

Five EU States have seen a decrease of over 10% with the largest decrease being the UK - down almost 18 percentage points.

It doesn't look like we need the EU as much as In/Yes proponents are fond to claim, not that trade would stop dead on Brexit anyway.

The issue is political in terms of regaining sovereignty, and self-determination in more areas. The prospect of ever closer union with the EU in its present state makes no sense, as clearly set out by Ruth Lea in her open letter to the CBI.
The trend may be declining-but at the moment it is still a very large proportion of the Uk's overseas trade. The EU combined is the worlds largest economy and it would still be a very significant market for the UK regardless.

The relationship between the UK and the EU isn't quite a 'they need us more than we need them' as the out/no proponents would argue.

IMO the UK has little risk and a lot of gain politically, but a lot of risk for little gain economically-whereas for the EU its reversed, in the event of Brexit the UK would hold a lot of political cards at the negotiating table-and the EU most of the economic ones-the way those negotiations go-well no-one knows, we can only know what position the UK would come to the negotiations in.

turbobloke

103,734 posts

259 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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cookie118 said:
The relationship between the UK and the EU isn't quite a 'they need us more than we need them' as the out/no proponents would argue.
The overall membership position is more complicated due to the political basis behind Brexit, but the trade side and the 'subscription fee' aspect are exactly like that and the sum total points to Out/No as better for the UK.

As posted previously by another PHer:
http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...

FiF

43,957 posts

250 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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The flaw in this EU combined argument is the word combined. Nations still tend to think nationally, parochially if you like. Now whilst the EU has the trade competence and no nation within the EU can negotiate any deal with an outsider, if the EU wishes to act spitefully, which it may well do, then it's going imo to have a job on its hands to keep those nations in line who are particular losers by reason of its actions pre or post Brexit.

To be fair it's an unknown, but nobody with any sense thinks trade wars produce any winners, only losers. Of course the EU may not have any sense and there's a fair bit of evidence for that.


turbobloke

103,734 posts

259 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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FiF said:
The flaw in this EU combined argument is the word combined. Nations still tend to think nationally, parochially if you like. Now whilst the EU has the trade competence and no nation within the EU can negotiate any deal with an outsider, if the EU wishes to act spitefully, which it may well do, then it's going imo to have a job on its hands to keep those nations in line who are particular losers by reason of its actions pre or post Brexit.

To be fair it's an unknown, but nobody with any sense thinks trade wars produce any winners, only losers. Of course the EU may not have any sense and there's a fair bit of evidence for that.
Yes it's the mutuality of trade rather than any 55/45 or 60/40 numbers that matters, offering nothing to the In/Yes side, and no basis for more EU idiocy even at their level of irrationality.

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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FiF said:
To be fair it's an unknown, but nobody with any sense thinks trade wars produce any winners, only losers. Of course the EU may not have any sense and there's a fair bit of evidence for that.
Indeed so.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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turbobloke said:
The overall membership position is more complicated due to the political basis behind Brexit, but the trade side and the 'subscription fee' aspect are exactly like that and the sum total points to Out/No as better for the UK.

As posted previously by another PHer:
http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...
But the letter again goes on about gross figures-yes we run a trade deficit with the EU but Britain's exports to the EU are a much greater proportion than the EU to the UK. I don't quite get why proportions are ignored?

The sensible thing economically is to maintain free trade, but the EU will want to recoup political ground- potentially including free movement of people-from the EU pespective how much is Britain willing to concede to maintain it's economic position in the EU market??

Ali G

3,526 posts

281 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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'Common Market' - good - and what the populace signed up for

'EU' - bad - loss of self-determination - UK democracy becomes secondary to an utterly corrupt bunch of self-serving Eurocrats who are unble to provide an audited set of accounts.

And for good measure - fed up of subsidising incompetent French farmers.

furious

And breath 2,3,4,5.......

I guess then that will be a 'Non monsiuer - c'est vous plait' and you can keep your pissoirs to yourself.

And Ozzie wine is far better...

treepke

119 posts

104 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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Ali G said:
'Common Market' - good - and what the populace signed up for

'EU' - bad - loss of self-determination - UK democracy becomes secondary to an utterly corrupt bunch of self-serving Eurocrats who are unble to provide an audited set of accounts.
.
Wonder if this is where the phrase "treat them like mushrooms" originates?

turbobloke

103,734 posts

259 months

Tuesday 28th July 2015
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cookie118 said:
turbobloke said:
The overall membership position is more complicated due to the political basis behind Brexit, but the trade side and the 'subscription fee' aspect are exactly like that and the sum total points to Out/No as better for the UK.

As posted previously by another PHer:
http://politeia.co.uk/blog/open-letter-sir-mike-ra...
But the letter again goes on about gross figures-yes we run a trade deficit with the EU but Britain's exports to the EU are a much greater proportion than the EU to the UK. I don't quite get why proportions are ignored?
Because there won't be a significant change due to the mutuality of trade.

As mentioned prevciously the position isn't static, the trend is important.

Recent (June) article:


The importance of the European Union as the UK's main trading partner appears to be dwindling as the share of UK goods exported to the region fell to a record low in April.

Just 45.1pc of the goods that the UK exported that month went to the EU, down from 52pc in the previous year.

The data showed that Britain's overall trade deficit, including both goods and services, narrowed dramatically in April.

Edited by turbobloke on Tuesday 28th July 19:27

Cheese Mechanic

3,157 posts

168 months

Wednesday 29th July 2015
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Some interesting results here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/594503/brit...

A poll of 5000. So not a small sample . The stat that interesed me the most was this : "According to the poll, only 37 per cent of those quizzed would vote to join the EU if the country was outside the bloc today."

Very telling, yet curiously, there appears to be, at the moment , a majority who will vote to stay in. Bizzare considering this quoted stat.

turbobloke

103,734 posts

259 months

Wednesday 29th July 2015
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Cheese Mechanic said:
Some interesting results here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/594503/brit...

A poll of 5000. So not a small sample . The stat that interesed me the most was this : "According to the poll, only 37 per cent of those quizzed would vote to join the EU if the country was outside the bloc today."

Very telling, yet curiously, there appears to be, at the moment , a majority who will vote to stay in. Bizzare considering this quoted stat.
An 8 point lead for In/Yes, that must be one of the highest margins to date, even so it's in a context - as you indicated - where only 37% would join today.

One year ahead of the referendum (if reports on the date are accurate) an 8 point lead looks strong, yet in 2014 one year ahead of the General Election we had Labour with an 8 point lead over the Conservatives and further back, Kinnock had a similar 7 point lead over Major. Opinion polls...wonderful things.

AJS-

15,366 posts

235 months

Wednesday 29th July 2015
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Cheese Mechanic said:
Some interesting results here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/594503/brit...

A poll of 5000. So not a small sample . The stat that interesed me the most was this : "According to the poll, only 37 per cent of those quizzed would vote to join the EU if the country was outside the bloc today."

Very telling, yet curiously, there appears to be, at the moment , a majority who will vote to stay in. Bizzare considering this quoted stat.
Not that bizarre, unfortunately.

Look at RYH - if we were outside the EU and he was selling his wares to Japan or the US he'd probably be just as keen not to disrupt those arrangements. We have been in the EU for over 40 years and leaving does have the potential to disrupt things.

Also 37% is a huge number if they can be assumed to be actually pro-EU.

Then again my trust in opinion polls was always low and the general election didn't help.

FiF

43,957 posts

250 months

Wednesday 29th July 2015
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The thing that depresses me about that article is the presence of Farage and the immigration message. It's suspected that a significant effect of the concentration on immigration caused the UKIP support to plateau, and it's possible that they may have a similar effect on the referendum campaign if they harp on about this.

The other thing which has only an element of truth is the belief about EU meddling, true, but also the belief that exit will mean a bonfire of regulations. It won't.

True we will be able in part have regulations which suit us, but many regulations these days some from super national regulatory bodies eg UNECE. We have no voice on these, no real prior view of what is coming, and just have to accept what is handed down verbatim via the EU. In this sense the EU is just an extra layer in the accountability trace and frankly an expensive and unwieldy unwanted layer.
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