The 'No to the EU' campaign

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NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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Did you forget to preface all the above with 'In my opinion'?

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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V88Dicky said:
Can anyone ever see a day when we join, or are invited to join, NAFTA?

How would being a member of that trading bloc, and it is just trade as far as I can see, affect the UK? Would it be a good thing?

scratchchin
If Brexit, then a distinct possibility. A decade or so ago Senator Gram (sp?) was pushing for this. There is a body of politicians in the States that would go for this as a consolation prize of losing their Trojan Horse in Europe.
And it would be a very good thing, particularly as we could then lobby for the rest of the Anglosphere to join.

dbdb

4,311 posts

172 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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NicD said:
Did you forget to preface all the above with 'In my opinion'?
That's a given, isn't it? - None of these things are unequivocal.

AstonZagato

12,649 posts

209 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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D
Willy Nilly said:
Why would "you" move to Dublin if the UK pulled out of the EU?
More than half our clients sit in the EU. We are able to sell to them because there are rules that allow us to "passport " our products into EU jurisdictions. It is not clear that our current products would be "grandfathered " nor that future products would have the same treatment if originating out of the EU. We will almost certainly need a major hub inside the EU and Dublin is the easiest place to go (language/regulation/time zone).

Credit Suisse is a spectacularly bad example for you to have picked. They are specifically in the UK because, as well as the other advantages, it sits in the EU (which Switzerland does not). The current situation suits a large London operation. One outside of the EU almost certainly will not (though it depends on treaty negotiations - which Frankfurt and Dublin will try to scupper).

You might not like the EU (nor do I) but it does make it far easier for our financial institutions to dominate when they have virtually free reign to operate across the continent.

Ayahuasca

Original Poster:

27,427 posts

278 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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AstonZagato said:
it does make it far easier for our financial institutions to dominate when they have virtually free reign to operate across the continent.
not all financial institutions have 'free reign' - insurance for example. as well as complying with eu law, products need to comply with local regulations too.

NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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dbdb said:
That's a given, isn't it? - None of these things are unequivocal.
Is it?
Many things stated on here are facts, rather than forcefully delivered opinions.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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Willy Nilly said:
Switzerland isn't in the EU but Credit Suisse operate here...
Exactly! If you left they might have to move to somewhere that was. I don't like the EU one bit but you can't ignore the risks of leaving, especially to your financial services; there's nothing more the Germans and French want than their banks back in Fft and Paris!

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 25th May 16:57

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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fblm said:
Willy Nilly said:
Switzerland isn't in the EU but Credit Suisse operate here...
Exactly! If you left they might have to move to somewhere that was. I don't like the EU one bit but you can't ignore the risks of leaving, especially to your financial services; there's nothing more the Germans and French want than their banks back in Fft and Paris!

Edited by fblm on Monday 25th May 16:57
That will all be sorted with the Trade agreement. There is something more that the Germans want; free access to treasure Island to sell us God knows how many Mercs, BMs, Audi/VWs, Porsches etc.

irocfan

40,152 posts

189 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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rs1952 said:
robm3 said:
AstonZagato said:
I am a partner in a financial services company.

We are looking at a move to Dublin, if the vote starts to look like an out.

I'm sure we are not alone.

That doesn't mean I'm blindly pro-EU. I have used the freedom of movement to work abroad. I rather enjoyed that.

I believe that the people should choose. We were never asked whether we wanted to sign up to ever closer union. We were asked if we wanted to join a Common Market. I like the idea of a common market. An overarching super state is less to my taste but, if my fellow citizens want it, so be it.
Well I see one or two benefits, lots of financial service companies would leave London. Instantly dropping house prices and the ratio of knobs to normal people in one fell swoop....
And also dropping the Treasury tax take in one fell swoop too, resulting in taxation increases for all the rest of us.

Still think its a good idea?
of course it is because that means that all the bd bankers who caused every problem the world has ever had (including the last ice age probably if some of the, slightly, more hysterical anti's are to be taken seriously!!) will be gone and then the UK economy could flourish without those wasters dragging it down.... wink



Interestingly enough another political party that wants to leave the EU is (IIRC) the socialist worker's party... who'd've thunk it PH and the reds in bed wink

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
AstonZagato said:
D
Willy Nilly said:
Why would "you" move to Dublin if the UK pulled out of the EU?
More than half our clients sit in the EU. We are able to sell to them because there are rules that allow us to "passport " our products into EU jurisdictions. It is not clear that our current products would be "grandfathered " nor that future products would have the same treatment if originating out of the EU. We will almost certainly need a major hub inside the EU and Dublin is the easiest place to go (language/regulation/time zone).

Credit Suisse is a spectacularly bad example for you to have picked. They are specifically in the UK because, as well as the other advantages, it sits in the EU (which Switzerland does not). The current situation suits a large London operation. One outside of the EU almost certainly will not (though it depends on treaty negotiations - which Frankfurt and Dublin will try to scupper).

You might not like the EU (nor do I) but it does make it far easier for our financial institutions to dominate when they have virtually free reign to operate across the continent.
Is the RoI big enough? The last financial crisis nearly destroyed the banks in Ireland. Having the BoE and the ability to create more money when required to rescue the financial sector is a big pull factor for the City.

AstonZagato

12,649 posts

209 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
Nothing in my business needs local banking support. We already do a number of clerical functions in Ireland. We maintained full function and confidence through 08 with those functions in Ireland.

The main concern for us would be staff. Could we find enough? The partners are the performance engine and we don't need a lot of support, so our conclusion was that we could cover most needs. However, our assumption is that most staff will follow us (if we need to go).

The residency rules might stymie us though. Currently we are in a common travel area with Ireland. If that remains, we should be ok. If it goes and Ireland adopts Schengen, then we might face a more challenging battle. But with the Northern Irish border unsecured (and probably unsecurable), abolition of the CTA is most unlikely.

At the moment, it is the beginnings of a contingency plan. The central view is that there will be no Brexit. We just want to have mapped out some of the options available to us should things change. We think lawyers that can help will get VERY busy if the polls get tighter.

AstonZagato

12,649 posts

209 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
Ayahuasca said:
AstonZagato said:
it does make it far easier for our financial institutions to dominate when they have virtually free reign to operate across the continent.
not all financial institutions have 'free reign' - insurance for example. as well as complying with eu law, products need to comply with local regulations too.
So Do my products. But being in the EU is a massive start. If we were out, my business would struggle to function (unless trade negotiations create a window).

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
AstonZagato said:
Ayahuasca said:
AstonZagato said:
it does make it far easier for our financial institutions to dominate when they have virtually free reign to operate across the continent.
not all financial institutions have 'free reign' - insurance for example. as well as complying with eu law, products need to comply with local regulations too.
So Do my products. But being in the EU is a massive start. If we were out, my business would struggle to function (unless trade negotiations create a window).
Do you know if TTIP improves access to the USA market?

AJS-

15,366 posts

235 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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Aston
Does being outside the Euro impact your business? If you're comfortable to share the broad nature of what you do it would be interesting.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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s2art said:
fblm said:
Willy Nilly said:
Switzerland isn't in the EU but Credit Suisse operate here...
Exactly! If you left they might have to move to somewhere that was. I don't like the EU one bit but you can't ignore the risks of leaving, especially to your financial services; there's nothing more the Germans and French want than their banks back in Fft and Paris!

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 25th May 16:57
That will all be sorted with the Trade agreement. There is something more that the Germans want; free access to treasure Island to sell us God knows how many Mercs, BMs, Audi/VWs, Porsches etc.
I understand but it can't be blithely dismissed as others are doing. It's one more thing you need from any trade negotiation which makes your position to make demands weaker.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
fblm said:
s2art said:
fblm said:
Willy Nilly said:
Switzerland isn't in the EU but Credit Suisse operate here...
Exactly! If you left they might have to move to somewhere that was. I don't like the EU one bit but you can't ignore the risks of leaving, especially to your financial services; there's nothing more the Germans and French want than their banks back in Fft and Paris!

Edited by fblm on Monday 25th May 16:57
That will all be sorted with the Trade agreement. There is something more that the Germans want; free access to treasure Island to sell us God knows how many Mercs, BMs, Audi/VWs, Porsches etc.
I understand but it can't be blithely dismissed as others are doing. It's one more thing you need from any trade negotiation which makes your position to make demands weaker.
I dont consider our negotiating position weak at all. On the contrary we might/should get a better deal for our service sector than we have now. WTO rules only suit us far more than it does Germany. And -there is the threat of us joining NAFTA if the EU wont play ball.

irocfan

40,152 posts

189 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
there is also the issue of the EU budget going all to hell if the UK drops out since IIRC the EU budget is quite precarious anyway so any sizable sort of reduction in EU income could be disastrous

voyds9

8,488 posts

282 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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I cannot imagine Harry Smith not being able to lease his BMW if we leave the EU

Also Kurt Engels will still want his Bentley.

No, we may not have an automatic right but ways will be quickly found, we rely on each other too much for it to fail.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Monday 25th May 2015
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Labour and the SNP to push for votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in the referendum.

guardian said:
The Labour party plans to exploit the government’s relative weakness in the Commons and the Lords to try to ensure 16- and 17-year-olds are allowed to vote in the EU referendum.

David Cameron wants the electorate for the referendum to be essentially the same as for general elections, but Labour and the SNP have said they want 16- and 17-year-olds to be allowed to vote in the poll, which is due before the end of 2017.

A Labour source said that, given teenagers have a “tremendous vested interest in whether or not we stay in the EU or leave”, there could be a strong appetite for amending the EU referendum bill in the Lords, even if Labour and the SNP fail to recruit the relatively small number of Tory rebels they would need to defeat the government in the Commons.
Full article

And it's pretty obvious why:

article said:
Age is a stark determinant of British views on the EU and Britain’s continued membership in that organisation. Just 40 percent of those ages 50 and older hold a favorable view of the European Union, compared with 71 percent who voice a positive judgment among those ages 18 to 33, according to a Spring 2014 Pew Research Center survey.
https://euobserver.com/opinion/127633

Edited by BlackLabel on Monday 25th May 21:28

NicD

3,281 posts

256 months

Monday 25th May 2015
quotequote all
Not hard to see why the young would love the concept of open borders.
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