The 'No to the EU' campaign

[maffski]

don4l said:

"Unilaterally scrapping import tariffs".

You really are stark, staring mad if you think that anyone believes that that could happen

Utterly, utterly bonkers.

Project Fear has produced some nonsense, but this really takes the biscuit.

Whilst it's unlikely it would happen, it's the sensible thing to do.

For consumers imports represent things we want, they make our lives better otherwise we wouldn't bother importing them. So any tariff on imports harms your own citizens.

For businesses imports represent the best of the competition, which forces that nations companies to improve to remain competitive. Making your businesses more productive improves the deal consumers get, again making their lives better.

So, why wouldn't you want no import tariffs, if their only function is to protect the vested interest of a small subset of your citizenry, at a cost to everyone else?

[edh]

Pan Pan Pan said:

If the UK does vote to remain in the EU. the first thing it should do, is take back (or rather stop paying it in, in the first place) the billions of pounds of the UK`s EU rebate that Bliar gave away for nothing. If they whinge we should tell them we will continue to keep those billions in the UK until the EU reforms the CAP.
We should also stop paying the fines the EU imposes on the UK for not using our own money they way they want us to.
That at least would be a small start at rolling back the corruption that is at the heart of the EU.

I have seen no sign that Brexit camp intends to do anything other than doling out the cash to farmers & landowners in a continuation of CAP nonsense.
I'd be more likely to back leave if I thought there were meaningful proposals for reform. Are there any?

[PRTVR]

mph1977 said:

PRTVR said:

<snip>
why does the EU want an army,a police force? I read that they have embassy's and are trying to get us to shut ours down, <snip>

you are sounding like a teabilly there ...

next you'll be telling us that there are marks on the back of road signs guding the EU army to branches of Asda that are going to be used as concentration camps for dissenters ...

Is there anything to suggest that any proposed 'EU army' would be any different to the UN formations or NATO managed deployments ( as seen in the former Yugoslavia) consisting of formed units from various nations under a joint HQ ? - after all this the model of 'EuroCorps' ...

is the NATO AEW force or the NATO strategic airlift group a threat to anyone's sovereignty - depsite the aircraft in use with those grosp are NATO owned and registered ?

But you have to ask why the EU wants an army if we have NATO, given that NATO is a more than just counties of the EU, my view is it's intentions are to act like the USA, but without the democracy, a dangerous situation.

I thought the Heavy airlift was independent of NATO? And doesn't the UK have its own AEW force ? I was always under the impression that the NATO AEW was a way for smaller members to assist with capabilities.

We have NATO, we have individual countries armed forces, why do they need another controlling layer?

[turbobloke]

From a non-paywalled FT link posted in the JD thread by jjlynn27 - note the two paragraphs below the image and replace General Election with Remain Campaign.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/2e43b3e8-01c7-11e6-ac98-...

[Sway]

mph1977 said:

Alex said:

CrutyRammers said:

Sway said:

The Civil Service will have a plan already mapped out, either way.

That's what they do. Whether the political bosses release that plan is another matter, but to think that the Government has triggered a referendum without having a decent idea of what happens next for either result is ridiculous.

Yeah, it'd be like starting a war without having any plan for what happens afterwards. Unpossible!

Apparently, the Civil Service has made no preparation for a Brexit result.

perhaps becasue unlike the Outies they realise the UK;s influence in the settlement will be minimal

fk me, I've heard some gullible ste in my time, but to think the CS have done or got nothing is utter, complete bks. We've the most successful, longest established CS in the world - it didn't get that way through abject incompetence and laziness.

Even if they've deemed there to be zero influence, there'll be a plan for what we will do to mitigate and adapt. Emergency measures, protocols, summits, the lot.

Anyone who truly believes the Government has called a ref with zero plan for what happens after, or that we have such a tardy, inept CS, should be hammering Downing Street and Whitehall for putting the whole future of the country in such a risky position. Anyone who thinks that on the 24th of June, if the result is Leave, that there'll be hundreds if not thousands of Sir Humphries sitting around saying 'fk. What do we do now?' is an idiot.

Note, I understand why the Government is saying this - because otherwise they'd be getting hammered for 'preparing to fail to win' in the populist press we have today. They'd be stupid to say 'we propose Remain but here's the detailed plan of what's happen if we Leave.'

Apologies if I've upset anyone with the post. Most should realise this is not my normal posting style. I'm just staggered at the naivety displayed in a few posts...

[turbobloke]

Sway said:

Apologies if I've upset anyone with the post. Most should realise this is not my normal posting style. I'm just staggered at the naivety displayed in a few posts...

No problem.

As our mothers said it's Better Out Than In.

[danllama]

Sway said:

fk me, I've heard some gullible ste in my time, but to think the CS have done or got nothing is utter, complete bks. We've the most successful, longest established CS in the world - it didn't get that way through abject incompetence and laziness.

Even if they've deemed there to be zero influence, there'll be a plan for what we will do to mitigate and adapt. Emergency measures, protocols, summits, the lot.

Anyone who truly believes the Government has called a ref with zero plan for what happens after, or that we have such a tardy, inept CS, should be hammering Downing Street and Whitehall for putting the whole future of the country in such a risky position. Anyone who thinks that on the 24th of June, if the result is Leave, that there'll be hundreds if not thousands of Sir Humphries sitting around saying 'fk. What do we do now?' is an idiot.

Note, I understand why the Government is saying this - because otherwise they'd be getting hammered for 'preparing to fail to win' in the populist press we have today. They'd be stupid to say 'we propose Remain but here's the detailed plan of what's happen if we Leave.'

Apologies if I've upset anyone with the post. Most should realise this is not my normal posting style. I'm just staggered at the naivety displayed in a few posts...

Well said.

[Mr Whippy]

Sway said:

Mr Whippy said:

Sway said:

What the fk happened when he visited Brussels to lead to such a change of heart? That really is a bloody odd thing.

It's not that odd when you see where Bliar and Kinnock are these days.

The gravy train clearly has a first class section which only party leaders are shown around.

For some reason, I can't think it's that simple. Money/wealth genuinely seems like something he's just not interested in, which fits with his long standing doctrine.

Something about his argument for his new position seemed odd - implying that membership increases the likelihood of a socialist government in the UK. Clearly this is bks under the current electoral system here - perhaps he's been shown the master plan and this somehow changes the landscape fundamentally?

Acknowledge I'm potentially straying into tinfoil hat territory, but something seems very, very odd to me. I'd love to hear a more rational explanation (which won't for the Remainders, be a 'killer argument for Remain' - otherwise it'd be being shouted by the rooftops if publicisable).

It's not tin foil hat. The EU will be USSR 2.0 in 25 years time.

That is exactly why I'm voting out.

All the other stuff is fluff to me.

The only socialism I'm happy with is that shown in Star Trek, because it works there (though they don't show the work shy getting shot behind the chemical sheds )

Until humans evolve away from their sheepish natures, socialism will always end in societal horror shows as far as I'm concerned.

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

Sway said:

Mr Whippy said:

Sway said:

What the fk happened when he visited Brussels to lead to such a change of heart? That really is a bloody odd thing.

It's not that odd when you see where Bliar and Kinnock are these days.

The gravy train clearly has a first class section which only party leaders are shown around.

For some reason, I can't think it's that simple. Money/wealth genuinely seems like something he's just not interested in, which fits with his long standing doctrine.

Something about his argument for his new position seemed odd - implying that membership increases the likelihood of a socialist government in the UK. Clearly this is bks under the current electoral system here - perhaps he's been shown the master plan and this somehow changes the landscape fundamentally?

Acknowledge I'm potentially straying into tinfoil hat territory, but something seems very, very odd to me. I'd love to hear a more rational explanation (which won't for the Remainders, be a 'killer argument for Remain' - otherwise it'd be being shouted by the rooftops if publicisable).

It's not tin foil hat. The EU will be USSR 2.0 in 25 years time.

That is exactly why I'm voting out.

All the other stuff is fluff to me.

The only socialism I'm happy with is that shown in Star Trek, because it works there (though they don't show the work shy getting shot behind the chemical sheds )

Gorbachev said:

The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe.

[JawKnee]

EUROZONE smashes growth forecasts and returns to pre crisis levels. This now means the Eurozone economy is getting stronger while the UK's growth is lower and on a downward decline.

http://gu.com/p/4tm37

[danllama]

How convenient.

[Cobnapint]

That's it then. I fully expect the jungle to be empty by Monday once this news gets around.

[CrutyRammers]

Sway said:

mph1977 said:

Alex said:

CrutyRammers said:

Sway said:

The Civil Service will have a plan already mapped out, either way.

That's what they do. Whether the political bosses release that plan is another matter, but to think that the Government has triggered a referendum without having a decent idea of what happens next for either result is ridiculous.

Yeah, it'd be like starting a war without having any plan for what happens afterwards. Unpossible!

Apparently, the Civil Service has made no preparation for a Brexit result.

perhaps becasue unlike the Outies they realise the UK;s influence in the settlement will be minimal

fk me, I've heard some gullible ste in my time, but to think the CS have done or got nothing is utter, complete bks. We've the most successful, longest established CS in the world - it didn't get that way through abject incompetence and laziness.

I'd love to believe you, as it sounds exactly what I'd expect to happen.
But we did enter a war without any thought as to where it would lead....so excuse my cynicism

[wiggy001]

JawKnee said:

EUROZONE smashes growth forecasts and returns to pre crisis levels. This now means the Eurozone economy is getting stronger while the UK's growth is lower and on a downward decline.

http://gu.com/p/4tm37

Given that anyone taking bets believes the UK will vote to stay in the EU, is this surprising?

[turbobloke]

JawKnee said:

EUROZONE smashes growth forecasts and returns to pre crisis levels. This now means the Eurozone economy is getting stronger while the UK's growth is lower and on a downward decline.

http://gu.com/p/4tm37

Alasdair Cavalla of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said:

...its timing is propitious given the numerous sources of anxiety for the continent. However, false dawns have been common since the financial crisis and nowhere more so than in Europe.

Marginal respite is good news for the poor buggers in the EZ basketcase economies - they're still in the baskets though.

It's a sad state of affairs when forecasts are smashed by something as poor as pssspoor and when Eurostat rush it out within 30 days of the quarter’s end rather than the usual 45 days.

Anyone would think they were desperate for the smallest iota of slightly better news with the possibility of Brexit causing EU anxiety.

The UK isn't doing too badly. The OECD has forecast that the UK will be the fastest growing economy in the G7 in 2016 with growth of 2.1% (OECD, February 2016).

IMF forecasting is notoriously unreliable.

• The IMF tried to talk Britain’s economy down before – but its negative forecasts for the UK economy have been consistently wrong. In 2013 the IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, warned that Britain’s growth forecasts were very low. When challenged, the Chief Economist responded: ‘I am right and they are wrong’ (Sky News, April 2013). His estimates turned out to be inaccurate and UK growth was much stronger than he predicted.

• The IMF later had to accept that it was wrong about its warnings for the UK. Christine Lagarde later admitted that she had ‘underestimated’ the strength of growth when the IMF assessed the UK economy in 2013 (Daily Telegraph, June 2014).

• The IMF has made other major errors of forecasting. In June 2013, the IMF was forced to admit it had issued ‘economic projections that were too optimistic’ about its joint austerity programme with the EU in Greece (Guardian, 5 June 2013).

• The head of the In campaign has dismissed siren voices like the IMF’s. Lord Rose has admitted that there are no short-term risks in voting to leave: ‘Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years...There will be absolutely no change...It’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out and we’re all suddenly going to find that we can’t go to France, it’s going to be a gentle process’ (The Times, 17 October 2015).

Talking of the devils, did the European Parliament not suggest recently that the UK should cease to have a voice in the IMF, likely in favour of a single unified eurovoice.

Never closer union. I'm lovin' it.

[CrutyRammers]

JawKnee said:

EUROZONE smashes growth forecasts and returns to pre crisis levels. This now means the Eurozone economy is getting stronger while the UK's growth is lower and on a downward decline.

http://gu.com/p/4tm37

Good. That will mean lots of countries with money to buy our products. They're growing more slowly than us, and 3 years behind:

But it's good news.

What has it got to do with us leaving the EU again?

[turbobloke]

CrutyRammers said:

But it's good news.

What has it got to do with us leaving the EU again?

Yes it is good news if the final value isn't revised downwards.

The link is that Eurostat rushed the news out within 30 days of the quarter’s end rather than taking the usual 45 days.

Desperation.

[Jockman]

Cobnapint said:

That's it then. I fully expect the jungle to be empty by Monday once this news gets around.

[FiF]

edh said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

If the UK does vote to remain in the EU. the first thing it should do, is take back (or rather stop paying it in, in the first place) the billions of pounds of the UK`s EU rebate that Bliar gave away for nothing. If they whinge we should tell them we will continue to keep those billions in the UK until the EU reforms the CAP.
We should also stop paying the fines the EU imposes on the UK for not using our own money they way they want us to.
That at least would be a small start at rolling back the corruption that is at the heart of the EU.

I have seen no sign that Brexit camp intends to do anything other than doling out the cash to farmers & landowners in a continuation of CAP nonsense.
I'd be more likely to back leave if I thought there were meaningful proposals for reform. Are there any?

If you read what's been written in the context intended, it's clear that the intention to continue to pay agricultural subsidies, development funds and the like is intended to ensure that the fears of farmers and the like being dumped in financial wastelands on the day after Brexit are completely unfounded, thus killing this aspect of Project Fear stone dead.

You are right that the common agricultural policy is a disaster area in general. Farmers represent 5.6% of the EU population, yet only generate 1.6% of the EU GDP, but receive 47% of the total budget through CAP. These figures are for the whole EU, the figures for UK I don't have to hand but the picture isn't as ludicrous as those for the whole EU iirc.

Nevertheless things will have to change, and even in the first stage of Flexcit, the EEA/EFTA stage, we are out of CAP and can start looking at how we want to change things. If you look at New Zealand, for example, in the crisis they experienced, the Govt cut all subsidies overnight as cost saving. It was clear that farmers were farming in a way to meet targets and maximise their subsidy, thus now dependent on subsidy. Now instead of focussing on maximising subsidy they're more focused on their customers and are thriving.

Equally, whilst the idea of a single agricultural and rural plan valid from the North of Scandinavia in the Arctic circle to the arid hills around Greece is unworkable, so is the situation for Britain from the north of Scotland to Devon and Cornwall or Norfolk. So there has to be regional input.

But in essence continuation is to prevent upheaval and provide a safe soft landing, and then revise and change what suits each region and sector at a pace the industry can manage and in a direction better for the nation. Flexcit section 13, covers it.

[Sway]

CrutyRammers said:

I'd love to believe you, as it sounds exactly what I'd expect to happen.
But we did enter a war without any thought as to where it would lead....so excuse my cynicism

Civil Service plan, plan, and plan again - but for what we do internally in the main, not what we do externally. Does what happened in Iraq or Afghan impact our running of our nation? No.

If you're that cynical, as I said you should be shouting from the rooftops of Whitehall and Westminster, as both are seriously failing us as a nation.