The 'No to the EU' campaign

[///ajd]

mph1977 said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

As an example about 20% of JLR cars goto Europe (ex UK) - its biggest market, though China used to be and might be again.

We could do all sorts, but Minford (voteleave official economist) is proposing to scrap tariffs on imports, and tolerate those we have to pay on our exports. He thinks the negative impact on food and cars is a price worth paying for brexit.

Except it just will not happen. The EU is not going to put tariffs on items where they have the trade advantage.

once again outies presuming that others will do things in Britain's favour on the basis that ' we're british dammit '

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

[HarryW]

JawKnee said:

HarryW said:

Genuine question what proportion of our car exports go to Europe? What is the balance of trade between us and the rest of the EU for cars?
Seems to me a very large percentage of cars on U.K. Roads are EU manufactured cars, if the EU attempts to apply a 10% tariffs to UK cars going to Europe, I presume we would do likewise?

Roughly a third of our motor exports go to Europe. We import three times as much from the EU as we export helping continue this country's huge trade deficit.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105...

We may slap tariffs on but as we are such a huge importer, there's only so far you can go down that route before you really start impacting UK inflation. Not a good strategy in the long run.

Thanks for that. I suppose you could position that it is not in the EU's interest either to impose punitive tariffs on UK cars.

[JawKnee]

HarryW said:

Thanks for that. I suppose you could position that it is not in the EU's interest either to impose punitive tariffs on UK cars.

Yes, I agree. Hurting one side with tariffs would in turn hurt the other.

[powerstroke]

///ajd said:

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

Oh so it would be a bad thing if we get a good deal and the remaining members
kick up a fuss and force the EU to become about free trade instead of a ever larger bullying red tape spewing monster full of gravy train riding unalected crooks...????

[Sway]

///ajd said:

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

For the 'other 28 countries' to be paying for free trade, they'd have to be net contributors.

So, how many actually pay for free trade, and do they run a trade surplus or deficit?

[powerstroke]

mph1977 said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

As an example about 20% of JLR cars goto Europe (ex UK) - its biggest market, though China used to be and might be again.

We could do all sorts, but Minford (voteleave official economist) is proposing to scrap tariffs on imports, and tolerate those we have to pay on our exports. He thinks the negative impact on food and cars is a price worth paying for brexit.

Except it just will not happen. The EU is not going to put tariffs on items where they have the trade advantage.

once again outies presuming that others will do things in Britain's favour on the basis that ' we're british dammit '

Im sure we would do just fine without german french and Italian cars ,
if they wanted to be silly......however what ever the EU thinks it will be Euro industry that has the final say , Que hoards of car workers marching on brussels !!!! THERE WONT BE UNFAIR TARIFFS FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS!!!!

[s2art]

mph1977 said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

As an example about 20% of JLR cars goto Europe (ex UK) - its biggest market, though China used to be and might be again.

We could do all sorts, but Minford (voteleave official economist) is proposing to scrap tariffs on imports, and tolerate those we have to pay on our exports. He thinks the negative impact on food and cars is a price worth paying for brexit.

Except it just will not happen. The EU is not going to put tariffs on items where they have the trade advantage.

once again outies presuming that others will do things in Britain's favour on the basis that ' we're british dammit '

Nope. Just presuming that the EU will do things to their advantage. Germany will ensure that.

[///ajd]

powerstroke said:

///ajd said:

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

Oh so it would be a bad thing if we get a good deal and the remaining members
kick up a fuss and force the EU to become about free trade instead of a ever larger bullying red tape spewing monster full of gravy train riding unalected crooks...????

The issue is, why would we be able to negotiate way better terms than we have now?

If they are all gravy train crooks, why would they bend over for us?

Many times we are told by brexiters how we have no influence at all in the EU, yet as soon as we leave we'll get to negotiate massively better terms whilst giving the EU nothing.

This is a total fantasy. If it was even remotely likely I'd be saying 'hell yes, there are no downsides!"

There is no such thing as a free lunch.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

mph1977 said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

As an example about 20% of JLR cars goto Europe (ex UK) - its biggest market, though China used to be and might be again.

We could do all sorts, but Minford (voteleave official economist) is proposing to scrap tariffs on imports, and tolerate those we have to pay on our exports. He thinks the negative impact on food and cars is a price worth paying for brexit.

Except it just will not happen. The EU is not going to put tariffs on items where they have the trade advantage.

once again outies presuming that others will do things in Britain's favour on the basis that ' we're british dammit '

Nope. Just presuming that the EU will do things to their advantage. Germany will ensure that.

Minfords proposal is to Germanys advantage, they can just go along with it, not quite believing their luck.

Minford is proposing to abolish import tariffs unilaterally, so no reason for the EU to slap on their import tariff anyway.

[Sway]

Sway said:

///ajd said:

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

For the 'other 28 countries' to be paying for free trade, they'd have to be net contributors.

So, how many actually pay for free trade, and do they run a trade surplus or deficit?

Somewhat poor form to quote myself, but I've just done an initial check - actually only 12 countries that are net contributors to the EU budget, so at least 16 are getting it for nothing or being paid to have a free trade agreement!

When I can be arsed tomorrow I'll check how many of them run a surplus - anyone want to take a guess?

[steveatesh]

JawKnee said:

HarryW said:

Thanks for that. I suppose you could position that it is not in the EU's interest either to impose punitive tariffs on UK cars.

Yes, I agree. Hurting one side with tariffs would in turn hurt the other.

In any event I understand that cars are moving towards global free trade by 2030 so it's only a medium term issue whatever.

[///ajd]

Sway said:

Sway said:

///ajd said:

Minford admits we would be subject to the EU external tariff under his 'plan'.

Why would we not be if we stop our contributions to the EU and rescind the four freedoms? If we got for free what Norway and Switzerland, not to mention the other 28 countries, pay for, they would be up in arms!

For the 'other 28 countries' to be paying for free trade, they'd have to be net contributors.

So, how many actually pay for free trade, and do they run a trade surplus or deficit?

Somewhat poor form to quote myself, but I've just done an initial check - actually only 12 countries that are net contributors to the EU budget, so at least 16 are getting it for nothing or being paid to have a free trade agreement!

When I can be arsed tomorrow I'll check how many of them run a surplus - anyone want to take a guess?

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

[Sway]

I think if negotiated properly, a similar solution to Switzerland could be found - with quotas and eligibility for residence over 90 days, free trade, and partnering on funding certain programmes.

As said, EEA/EFTA membership is different in the detail for each member. With a strong trade deficit, unlike Norway for example, a decent level of funding for appropriate activities (but not things like CAP) and collaboration at global level then free trade is not necessarily off the table.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Because they dont now. Check out the position with Turkey, for instance.

[s2art]

s2art said:

///ajd said:

s2art said:

mph1977 said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

As an example about 20% of JLR cars goto Europe (ex UK) - its biggest market, though China used to be and might be again.

We could do all sorts, but Minford (voteleave official economist) is proposing to scrap tariffs on imports, and tolerate those we have to pay on our exports. He thinks the negative impact on food and cars is a price worth paying for brexit.

Except it just will not happen. The EU is not going to put tariffs on items where they have the trade advantage.

once again outies presuming that others will do things in Britain's favour on the basis that ' we're british dammit '

Nope. Just presuming that the EU will do things to their advantage. Germany will ensure that.

Minfords proposal is to Germanys advantage, they can just go along with it, not quite believing their luck.

Minford is proposing to abolish import tariffs unilaterally, so no reason for the EU to slap on their import tariff anyway.


its

Except Minford wont be making the decisions. For starters nothing much happens for approx 2 years during the exit negotiations. After that it will be the post Cameron Tory government, and the Tory outers have stated that farmers will get approx as much support as now (see John Redwoods blog). I imagine if the EU is stupid enough to want to apply tariffs to the UK then Germany will just threaten to leave as well. If not Germany would just remind the others about who pays the bills, the economic state of the Eurozone without any more self inflicted damage and ultimately Zey vill follow orders!

From JR's blog



I am amazed at how the media still go on and on about future trade, just as Remain wishes them to do. Remain wishes to muddy the water. Most countries trade just fine with each other under WTO rules. The average world tariff under WTO rules is now very low, and considerably lower than the costs of EU membership as a proportion of our EU trade.

More importantly Remain can never answer the question what new barriers do the rest of the EU want to impose on their trade with us, given that they sell us so much more than we sell them. By what mechanism would they be able to impose new barriers? How do they get the changes through? How do 27 other countries decide new barriers? How do they impose them unilaterally without us retaliating? What barriers could they agree that are compatible with their and our membership of the WTO?



The Remain issue seems to have narrowed now to the question of passports. Most Remainians now seem to accept that Germany and the others will not wish to face a 10 % tariff on exporting their cars, so they have shifted to services. All the main banks that say they are worried about the passport have subsidiaries in other EU states, so after Brexit they can use one of their subsidiaries to route service around the EU whilst still doing much of the work in London as they do at the moment. The most popular of all the passported products, mentioned in the government publication is the UCITS fund. Most of these are based in Luxembourg or Dublin any way so Brexit will make no difference to their domicile.

What the Remainians seem to forget is the current arrangements for our trade remain in place unless and until they are amended. It is best to amend them by mutual agreement. If the rest of the EU wishes to amend the current tariffs and non tariff barriers in an adverse direction without our agreement they need to make sure they do not infringe World Trade Organisation rules in doing so, as they are bound by them as we will be on exit. They will also need to remember that if they vary them adversely to us unilaterally then we can vary them adversely to them unilaterally, subject to WTO limits on both sides. They have rather more at risk, as the higher tariff of 10% on cars is permissible under WTO rules, whereas most other products are limited to much lower tariffs. The UK has no wish to impose new tariffs and barriers on the rest of the EU despite being a heavy importer, and assumes the rest of the EU will come to the same view as they export so much to us.

[powerstroke]

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Why ??? because even a behemoth like the EU isn't as big as the interests of business and trade in what would be remaing the member countrys ,
I take it you don't run a business ???

[///ajd]

powerstroke said:

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Why ??? because even a behemoth like the EU isn't as big as the interests of business and trade in what would be remaing the member countrys ,
I take it you don't run a business ???

Why does the lead voteleave economist think they will?

Are you saying he is a muppet?

Why have voteleave appointed what your scorn implies is a muppet as their lead economist? Is it because they can't get any normal economists to say anything positive?

[souper]

The Spectator’s Brexit debate

In the largest event in The Spectator’s 188-year history, 2,200 people packed into the Palladium

Dan Hannan, Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey backed Brexit. Whilst Nick Clegg, Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna argued that Britain was better off remaining a part of the European Union.

If you have 1h.40mins spare http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-the-spe...

Leave won.

Edited by souper on Sunday 1st May 23:00

[anonymous-user]

powerstroke said:

Im sure we would do just fine without german french and Italian cars ,
if they wanted to be silly......however what ever the EU thinks it will be Euro industry that has the final say , Que hoards of car workers marching on brussels !!!! THERE WONT BE UNFAIR TARIFFS FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS!!!!

Everyone seems to assume that if Germany wants something it will get done but one of the unknowns of brexit is that (as far as I'm aware) our 'out' status could rest on, say Romania as much as Germany.

Also when people talk about the trade deficit, well we run a surplus with many countries in the eu, so we could be negotiating on quite different terms.

In addition the elections in many eu countries add another realm of uncertainty. Depending on what we want to negotiate politicians in eu countries could play to their voters and affect the negotiations, eg say if we start policies that punish or make it very difficult for eu nationals then a country may not be happy with that, they elect parties who says no to the uk and we get no trade deal. It's extreme but not beyond the realms of possibility, and it only has to happen in one of 27 countries

I agree a trade deal is in everyone's interest, but assuming it's a done deal is dangerous.

[With these feet]

I thought this was a very good quote from Hannan.

"The people running the EU are the
very people the public have expressly rejected at domestic elections – the
Mandelsons, The Kinnocks, who are then invited by the EU to rule over us."

Seriously, can anyone honestly say they would be happy in that situation?