The 'No to the EU' campaign

[wc98]

there is a helluva lot of assumption going on here that the eu we would be negotiating with would be the same eu as on the day of the referendum. looking at the main elections coming up in europe in the two years after the referendum i think it is fair to say negotiating any trade deals may be the least of the eu worries.

one absolute fact is ,if we leave ,the eu will have change forced upon it unless the germans stump up the extra cash to fill the void. how many people think they are willing to do that ?

[Ridgemont]

///ajd said:

powerstroke said:

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Why ??? because even a behemoth like the EU isn't as big as the interests of business and trade in what would be remaing the member countrys ,
I take it you don't run a business ???

Why does the lead voteleave economist think they will?

Are you saying he is a muppet?

Why have voteleave appointed what your scorn implies is a muppet as their lead economist? Is it because they can't get any normal economists to say anything positive?

Minford is hardly a muppet. His assessment, and in fact that of many on here, is that WTO rules would work fine if only because punative tariffs would not benefit either the UK or the EU. Looking at his credentials, especially with ref to rational expectations, that isn't an unreasonable view. The issue for those of us favouring the EEA solution is that Minford is probably incorrect in his assumption that the EU wouldn't do something ludicrously against its own self interest like entering into a beggar thy neighbour trade dispute, because at the end of the day Minford under appreciates the political dynamic at play: we only have to look at the unholy mess that is Greece to realise that rational economic behaviour won't apply here. The EEA option circumvents this. But to dismiss him as a muppet is stupid. The man is a highly regarded economist. But then as I've noted previously this fits your general MO.

[s2art]

wc98 said:

one absolute fact is ,if we leave ,the eu will have change forced upon it unless the germans stump up the extra cash to fill the void. how many people think they are willing to do that ?

One thing you can be sure of; Germany will not stump up any extra if the EU tries to interfere with trade with the UK. Just the opposite.

[Ridgemont]

wc98 said:

there is a helluva lot of assumption going on here that the eu we would be negotiating with would be the same eu as on the day of the referendum. looking at the main elections coming up in europe in the two years after the referendum i think it is fair to say negotiating any trade deals may be the least of the eu worries.

one absolute fact is ,if we leave ,the eu will have change forced upon it unless the germans stump up the extra cash to fill the void. how many people think they are willing to do that ?

Indeed. As posted previously as soon as the coast is clear, there will be another treaty. It's basically acknowledged in the UK 'deal'. The treaty will almost certainly be an attempt to deepen the union within the eurocore. There is a ticking time bomb underneath the current economic cycle; another global recession is due, at which point Italy and probably France are fubarred. Full fiscal union is probably the only solution. It's the only means of getting the Germans to continue supporting this clusterfk.

Edited by Ridgemont on Sunday 1st May 23:13

Edited by Ridgemont on Sunday 1st May 23:13

[///ajd]

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

powerstroke said:

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Why ??? because even a behemoth like the EU isn't as big as the interests of business and trade in what would be remaing the member countrys ,
I take it you don't run a business ???

Why does the lead voteleave economist think they will?

Are you saying he is a muppet?

Why have voteleave appointed what your scorn implies is a muppet as their lead economist? Is it because they can't get any normal economists to say anything positive?

Minford is hardly a muppet. His assessment, and in fact that of many on here, is that WTO rules would work fine if only because punative tariffs would not benefit either the UK or the EU. Looking at his credentials, especially with ref to rational expectations, that isn't an unreasonable view. The issue for those of us favouring the EEA solution is that Minford is probably incorrect in his assumption that the EU wouldn't do something ludicrously against its own self interest like entering into a beggar thy neighbour trade dispute, because at the end of the day Minford under appreciates the political dynamic at play: we only have to look at the unholy mess that is Greece to realise that rational economic behaviour won't apply here. The EEA option circumvents this. But to dismiss him as a muppet is stupid. The man is a highly regarded economist. But then as I've noted previously this fits your general MO.

So you think he's incorrect. Well that's a start.

Why is he the lead spokesperson for leave economics if he's incorrect?

The muppet remark was in response to powerstroke mocking his credentials as knowing nothing about business; thats in the quotes above.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

powerstroke said:

///ajd said:

Does that mean you think - if we left the EU and binned the four freedoms - the EU would not impose their tariffs for all the countries outside the EU?

Why would they not do that?

Why ??? because even a behemoth like the EU isn't as big as the interests of business and trade in what would be remaing the member countrys ,
I take it you don't run a business ???

Why does the lead voteleave economist think they will?

Are you saying he is a muppet?

Why have voteleave appointed what your scorn implies is a muppet as their lead economist? Is it because they can't get any normal economists to say anything positive?

Minford is hardly a muppet. His assessment, and in fact that of many on here, is that WTO rules would work fine if only because punative tariffs would not benefit either the UK or the EU. Looking at his credentials, especially with ref to rational expectations, that isn't an unreasonable view. The issue for those of us favouring the EEA solution is that Minford is probably incorrect in his assumption that the EU wouldn't do something ludicrously against its own self interest like entering into a beggar thy neighbour trade dispute, because at the end of the day Minford under appreciates the political dynamic at play: we only have to look at the unholy mess that is Greece to realise that rational economic behaviour won't apply here. The EEA option circumvents this. But to dismiss him as a muppet is stupid. The man is a highly regarded economist. But then as I've noted previously this fits your general MO.

So you think he's incorrect. Well that's a start.

Why is he the lead spokesperson for leave economics if he's incorrect?

The muppet remark was in response to powerstroke mocking his credentials as knowing nothing about business; thats in the quotes above.

If you watch the DP episode in question it would be obvious that Minford was just expressing his (highly expert)opinion of what would happen with no trade deals and if the UK went unilateral free trade. He called this option as merely a benchmark to work from. The basic purpose of the 'benchmark' was simply to show that trade deals are not required and that we would still be better off out.

[Ridgemont]

///ajd said:

So you think he's incorrect. Well that's a start.

Why is he the lead spokesperson for leave economics if he's incorrect?

The muppet remark was in response to powerstroke mocking his credentials as knowing nothing about business; thats in the quotes above.

Because leave appears to believe in the WTO option. This isn't news. Those on the EEA side of things think WTO won't work if only because of the malevolence of the EU. You introduced the word muppet.

[///ajd]

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

So you think he's incorrect. Well that's a start.

Why is he the lead spokesperson for leave economics if he's incorrect?

The muppet remark was in response to powerstroke mocking his credentials as knowing nothing about business; thats in the quotes above.

Because leave appears to believe in the WTO option. This isn't news. Those on the EEA side of things think WTO won't work if only because of the malevolence of the EU. You introduced the word muppet.

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

[Ridgemont]

///ajd said:

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

lose our manufacturing base? You are quoting a unite article referring a sun article referring Minford. Good grief.

I think what he is actually saying is that the UK would take a short term hit. Either way I don't agree with his principle prospectus, which is that the EU would behave in a rational way to a vote to leave. Which is why I favour the EEA model.

I feel you are struggling with the idea that many people who share an overall aim may not agree with detail. I might refer you to the shared platform of Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron?

[davepoth]

///ajd said:

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

There's no long-term future to manufacturing commodity goods in the UK, Brexit or not. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded. In any case, the sums in that link don't add up - some of our best "manufacturing" industries don't manufacture in the UK - ARM holdings or Dyson, as examples.

[Ridgemont]

Ridgemont said:

///ajd said:

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

lose our manufacturing base? You are quoting a unite article referring a sun article referring Minford. Good grief.

I think what he is actually saying is that the UK would take a short term hit. Either way I don't agree with his principle prospectus, which is that the EU would behave in a rational way to a vote to leave. Which is why I favour the EEA model.

I feel you are struggling with the idea that many people who share an overall aim may not agree with detail. I might refer you to the shared platform of Jeremy Corbyn and David Cameron?

And I may as well quote Minfords original point before it got mangled by Unite

Minford said:

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us.

Note the 'we' ref here; he's saying that this would be a sensible decision made by the UK not a result of the EU devastating UK industry. As it happens I tend to agree if only because I work in knowledge based industries as can see that unit costs in manufacturing probably disadvantage us, but that's by the by.

[Ridgemont]

davepoth said:

There's no long-term future to manufacturing commodity goods in the UK, Brexit or not. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded. In any case, the sums in that link don't add up - some of our best "manufacturing" industries don't manufacture in the UK - ARM holdings or Dyson, as examples.

Thanks - making my point more succinctly. I'm not in favour of dumping manufacturing. It is however facing serious problems in the UK not least on productivity, energy costs etc. Minford is hardly an outlier in his push for a knowledge based economy. That said, and I can't reiterate it enough, EEA mitigates immediate short term tarriff based threats so is my preferred way forward.

[s2art]

davepoth said:

///ajd said:

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

There's no long-term future to manufacturing commodity goods in the UK, Brexit or not. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded. In any case, the sums in that link don't add up - some of our best "manufacturing" industries don't manufacture in the UK - ARM holdings or Dyson, as examples.

I disagree. The entire manufacturing world is going to change dramatically in the near term. 3D printers are starting to get good, where will they be in another 10 years? Take a look at http://3dprintingindustry.com/aerospace/
just for an example of what they can already do. They will change the face and economics of manufacturing.

[davepoth]

Anyway, all of this stuff about which model we'll be forced to go down is moot in the light of the latest revelations regarding TTIP:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/01/le...

The US is demanding that it can be involved in the regulatory and legislative process, whilst not paying for access, or allowing freedom of movement. Everything appears to be negotiable, so why settle for less?

[Bill]

turbobloke said:

How many ever closer onions do they get for their money?

Not shallot.

[turbobloke]

Bill said:

turbobloke said:

How many ever closer onions do they get for their money?

Not shallot.

I leek that, not a lot though

[powerstroke]

souper said:

The Spectator’s Brexit debate

In the largest event in The Spectator’s 188-year history, 2,200 people packed into the Palladium

Dan Hannan, Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey backed Brexit. Whilst Nick Clegg, Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna argued that Britain was better off remaining a part of the European Union.

If you have 1h.40mins spare http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-the-spe...

Leave won.

Edited by souper on Sunday 1st May 23:00

Very interesting .. good solid performance from Nigel and Hannan , Liz kendall
had a fair go at it too , Chuka and Clegg were their average 3rd rate selves !!!just crap( I do hope Chucka is the next labour leader!!!)
The real stand out was Kate Hoey with a very interesting take on the EU from a left wing point of view She is really worth listening to, the rest was good but we have heard it all before....

[///ajd]

s2art said:

davepoth said:

///ajd said:

He basically is saying its ok to lose our manufacturing base post brexit, some furthe quotes here:

http://unitelive.org/a-uk-without-manufacturing/

You are keen to defend Minford, is this position also acceptable to you?

There's no long-term future to manufacturing commodity goods in the UK, Brexit or not. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded. In any case, the sums in that link don't add up - some of our best "manufacturing" industries don't manufacture in the UK - ARM holdings or Dyson, as examples.

I disagree. The entire manufacturing world is going to change dramatically in the near term. 3D printers are starting to get good, where will they be in another 10 years? Take a look at http://3dprintingindustry.com/aerospace/
just for an example of what they can already do. They will change the face and economics of manufacturing.

I agree, the death of manufacturing in the UK is overstated and does not recognise the areas in which it can still thrive and prosper. Its appears to be an 80s mindset which perhaps is where Minford is stuck.

Even some unlikely areas - such as textile production - have re-emerged in the UK, where the numbers can be made to work.

It is not as simple as "chinese labour cheaper so we'll never compete" at all.

That doesn't mean allowing tariffs on our exports to our biggest market is a good idea.

[wc98]

///ajd said:

I agree, the death of manufacturing in the UK is overstated and does not recognise the areas in which it can still thrive and prosper. Its appears to be an 80s mindset which perhaps is where Minford is stuck.

Even some unlikely areas - such as textile production - have re-emerged in the UK, where the numbers can be made to work.

It is not as simple as "chinese labour cheaper so we'll never compete" at all.

That doesn't mean allowing tariffs on our exports to our biggest market is a good idea.

i knew at some point there would be something we would agree on

[Guybrush]

With these feet said:

I thought this was a very good quote from Hannan.

"The people running the EU are the
very people the public have expressly rejected at domestic elections – the
Mandelsons, The Kinnocks, who are then invited by the EU to rule over us."

Seriously, can anyone honestly say they would be happy in that situation?

Yes, it's a nice gravy train back up plan for failed politicians who can end up milking even more taxpayers' money. Mad or what?