Post Brexit

[AJS-]

Suppose for a moment you are David Cameron. It's a Friday morning in 2017, the votes have been counted and it's a resounding win for the Out campaign. Britain is leaving the EU.

Quite aside from the fact that Cameron may well quit in the event of such a result what are your priorities in terms of new trading arrangements, replacing or removing EU regulations and otherwise untangling our country from 44 years of EU membership?

[Troubleatmill]

If a YES vote happens - within days - a new trade agreement will be signed.

The share price of pretty much every European based company will haemorrhage without it.


Nothing much will change - except - we get to queue in a different queue at the airports.

Edited by Troubleatmill on Monday 25th May 15:09

[s2art]

AJS- said:

Suppose for a moment you are David Cameron. It's a Friday morning in 2017, the votes have been counted and it's a resounding win for the Out campaign. Britain is leaving the EU.

Quite aside from the fact that Cameron may well quit in the event of such a result what are your priorities in terms of new trading arrangements, replacing or removing EU regulations and otherwise untangling our country from 44 years of EU membership?

Agree with TaM above. However To get the real benefits of Brexit there is a shedload of work to do. The politicians have two years to negotiate the terms of our new relationship with the EU, and to go through all the EU related legislation and replace it with native stuff, deregulating as they go. Our diplomatic corps has to start negotiating FTAs with the rest of the world (probably easier than most think as we import lots). The Home office has to re-instate all the border control apparatus that used to exist, which ever dept has responsibility for industry (DECC will be sidelined or dead) and energy will have to completely rejig the UK's industrial and energy strategy, DEFRA will have to completely rejig our management of the farming industry, replacing the CAP with something home grown and managing the rebuild of our fishing industry. Lots more too, it will take a few years to sort out, but with huge potential.

[elster]

Troubleatmill said:

If a YES vote happens - within days - a new trade agreement will be signed.

The share price of pretty much every European based company will haemorrhage without it.


Nothing much will change - except - we get to queue in a different queue at the airports.

Edited by Troubleatmill on Monday 25th May 15:09

It would only need an amendment, not a new treaty. So would be easy to sort.

The only thing I am wondering is the impacts on free movement.

[AJS-]

I don't doubt that the opportunity is there, I just don't see much being done about it by either side. Cameron is jetting around talking to EU leaders this week apparently renegotiating the In option. UKIP and others have made a strong case against the EU but I don't see any positive alternative being advanced. What trade arrangements would we pursue with the EU, the US, China, others? Which reregulations could we wave goodbye to immediately? What immigration laws would we implement?

[Borghetto]

elster said:

It would only need an amendment, not a new treaty. So would be easy to sort.

The only thing I am wondering is the impacts on free movement.

As we're outside Schengen we already have to go through immigration at points of entry into the Schengen EU. I would imagine a similar deal to that of Switzerland would be negotiated.

[Cheese Mechanic]

I'm of the opinion that our economy, has the opportunity to absolutely fly.

A free market low tax model, has spectacular potential. After of course, succesfull exit negotiations have been agreed and fulfilled.

[AJS-]

Cheese Mechanic said:

I'm of the opinion that our economy, has the opportunity to absolutely fly.

A free market low tax model, has spectacular potential. After of course, succesfull exit negotiations have been agreed and fulfilled.

Completely agree. The question is what is feasible and will be attractive to the public. So far I Have seen very little discussion of this, so it seems we are going into the referendum with the Out vote representing a huge leap into the unknown for most of the public. I'm actually fine with that because, as you say it's a great opportunity to build a free market, low tax country. However I am fairly sure the public will not vote for it.

[s2art]

AJS- said:

Cheese Mechanic said:

I'm of the opinion that our economy, has the opportunity to absolutely fly.

A free market low tax model, has spectacular potential. After of course, succesfull exit negotiations have been agreed and fulfilled.

Completely agree. The question is what is feasible and will be attractive to the public. So far I Have seen very little discussion of this, so it seems we are going into the referendum with the Out vote representing a huge leap into the unknown for most of the public. I'm actually fine with that because, as you say it's a great opportunity to build a free market, low tax country. However I am fairly sure the public will not vote for it.

The Scots probably wouldnt, but the English and some of the ethnic minorities might well.

[jurbie]

Nothing will change regarding the single market because it is separate to the EU and we'll stay in it by joining the European Economic Area. The free movement of goods and labour will continue as before.

https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

[anonymous-user]

Cheese Mechanic said:

I'm of the opinion that our economy, has the opportunity to absolutely fly.

A free market low tax model, has spectacular potential. After of course, succesfull exit negotiations have been agreed and fulfilled.

Could be but I would wager that, were a No vote to happen, the EU would be all over us with concessions and Cameron, or his successor will say, "Oh, we better have another vote.....".

[Dog Star]

I don't think there's any doubt that if we get the referendum we are going to be OUT, and it's not going to be something wishy-washy like 55%, it's going to be a thumping 70% or more. PH isn't representative of the UK at large, and I suspect the average citizen wants out.

That's of course if we get the referendum. We won't.

[AJS-]

jurbie said:

Nothing will change regarding the single market because it is separate to the EU and we'll stay in it by joining the European Economic Area. The free movement of goods and labour will continue as before.

https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

Except it is not clear that we would default to EEA membership. One of the big selling points of leaving the EU has been the freedom to make our own trade deals with other countries and halting the free movement of people to control immigration.

[Dog Star]

I don't think there's any doubt that if we get the referendum we are going to be OUT, and it's not going to be something wishy-washy like 55%, it's going to be a thumping 70% or more. PH isn't representative of the UK at large, and I suspect the average citizen wants out.

That's of course if we get the referendum. We won't.

[AJS-]

Out to what Dog Star?

I agree that many people don't like the EU but there has to be an attractive alternative for people to vote for. This is what I don't see anyone really articulating.

[ClaphamGT3]

I expect that, between now and any referendum, the unassailable case for remaining in the EU will be clearly spelt out and, as with this election, the electorate will vote with their minds not their hearts. I would expect that there will be an 'in' vote of at least 60% which means that! at long last! we can stop cocking about and crack on with meaningful integration into a federal Europe.

[s2art]

AJS- said:

Out to what Dog Star?

I agree that many people don't like the EU but there has to be an attractive alternative for people to vote for. This is what I don't see anyone really articulating.

The basic message is a return to proper democracy and the ability of the voters to vote out an unliked government. Its about restoring rights, such as protecting people from the EAW, ensuring its British judges who can decide if someone is to be extradited. Its about controlling our borders and restoring our fishing grounds. Is about Habeas Corpus, common law and not having foreign bureaucrats inflict laws on us we dont want. And much more. The Economic side is minor compared to that.

[AJS-]

ClaphamGT3
So by the same token why don't politicians actually make the case for a federal Europe? I agree that this is quite obviously what is on the table but Cameron for one with his talk of renegotiation and his assertion that immigration can be controlled within the EU is not making it.

s2art
Under WTO trading terms? EEA? Totally independent?

As for habeus corpus and the rest, much as I support all that can it really last beyond the next terrorist scare or paedophile or racist outrage?

[s2art]

AJS- said:

ClaphamGT3
So by the same token why don't politicians actually make the case for a federal Europe? I agree that this is quite obviously what is on the table but Cameron for one with his talk of renegotiation and his assertion that immigration can be controlled within the EU is not making it.

s2art
Under WTO trading terms? EEA? Totally independent?

As for habeus corpus and the rest, much as I support all that can it really last beyond the next terrorist scare or paedophile or racist outrage?

As a free trader we would like to go further than the current WTO agreements, but I would still classify us as independent. Not in the EEA though.
Yes, I think it can survive that, although there may be temporary suspensions in times of National emergency.

[Cheese Mechanic]

ClaphamGT3 said:

I expect that, between now and any referendum, the unassailable case for remaining in the EU will be clearly spelt out and, as with this election, the electorate will vote with their minds not their hearts. I would expect that there will be an 'in' vote of at least 60% which means that! at long last! we can stop cocking about and crack on with meaningful integration into a federal Europe.

Do you now, quite remarkable. Considering that nobody has ever voted knowingly for a Federal Europe, you grasp at air.

The loss of Sovreignty, was skirted around and never addressed in Wilson's referendum, and many "treaty" revisions have been implemented by our own backstabbers against a background of obfuscation and sneaky maneauvering, Lisbon a prime example.

The fact is, those wishing to keep in, are going to try and frighten the electorate over the myth of problems of trade, the lie the EU was sold on in the first place , it is paramount that those lies are consistently and persistently shown as the lies they really are.