US/NATO/Nordic Alliance vs Russia

US/NATO/Nordic Alliance vs Russia

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Discussion

TheJimi

Original Poster:

24,860 posts

242 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
What with the increasing US / NATO military presence in the region, I'm curious - who would win? Assuming conventional warfare.

A purile question, I now, but still...



Axionknight

8,505 posts

134 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Nobody.

TheJimi

Original Poster:

24,860 posts

242 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Axionknight said:
Nobody.
Ok, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm looking for a realistic discussion and not philosophical answers.

deckster

9,630 posts

254 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
Axionknight said:
Nobody.
Ok, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm looking for a realistic discussion and not philosophical answers.
But that's the point. Both blocs would be largely bankrupted by the effort and the real winners would be China and the other Asian economies. Regardless of who 'wins', everybody involved will lose.

Also, and something very much to consider; although we 'won' WW2, if an outsider today took a look at the standards of living and relative economies of Germany and the UK they would probably come to the opposite conclusion.

Rogue86

2,008 posts

144 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
In pure technological terms and provided they're not reinforced by the likes of China, I don't think we have a great deal to worry about. The Russians have a lot of troops, but the majority of their equipment is dated and/or unserviceable.

It would be interesting (/terrifying obviously) to see how a modern conflict between Nations would pan out given how warfare has advanced over the last 75 years and whether civilians would be under threat as they once were and how forces like the ones we have today would be fielded into theatre. The only thing that hasn't really changed is that air supremacy is the key - something that the Russians couldn't really hope to contest with - particuarly with the US who have the numbers and the technology.

TheJimi

Original Poster:

24,860 posts

242 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
deckster said:
TheJimi said:
Axionknight said:
Nobody.
Ok, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm looking for a realistic discussion and not philosophical answers.
But that's the point. Both blocs would be largely bankrupted by the effort and the real winners would be China and the other Asian economies. Regardless of who 'wins', everybody involved will lose.

Also, and something very much to consider; although we 'won' WW2, if an outsider today took a look at the standards of living and relative economies of Germany and the UK they would probably come to the opposite conclusion.
(sigh)

I know this. It doesn't need to be spelled out to me and it's not what I asked.

Appreciate your response though and I agree re Germany.

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
deckster said:
TheJimi said:
Axionknight said:
Nobody.
Ok, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm looking for a realistic discussion and not philosophical answers.
But that's the point. Both blocs would be largely bankrupted by the effort and the real winners would be China and the other Asian economies. Regardless of who 'wins', everybody involved will lose.

Also, and something very much to consider; although we 'won' WW2, if an outsider today took a look at the standards of living and relative economies of Germany and the UK they would probably come to the opposite conclusion.
Bankrupt USA/NATO? You jest. Russia has a smaller GDP than the UK. It could only get bad if the Russians are loony enough to use nukes.

AJS-

15,366 posts

235 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
No one knows because it hasn't happened yet. It also depends on exactly what happens where.

I don't think there's any doubt it would be horrendous. Many people would die and lots of good things would be wasted. That's what happens in wars.

On paper NATO has far more resources and military might, but even with a smallish GDP Russia has massive natural resources and could keep a war going for years.

jmorgan

36,010 posts

283 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Guessing if the Russians fought like they did in WWII then we would be rather worried.

MrBrightSi

2,912 posts

169 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
From: http://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/2014/03/17/com...

The 2013 Russian military budget was $91 billion. The NATO countries total was $990 billion, a factor of 10 times larger. The main parts of NATO are the US at $682 billion, and the EU at $274 billion.

Money doesn't mean everything however, Russia has used tactics that on the surface look simple but they are doing exactly what they want. People are still confused about their involvement yet it should be pretty obvious what they re doing according to the evidence.

Russia with its fraction of spending compared to us, still has the eastern European states shook in-between Kaliningrad. They have raised militias and seem to be taking things very very seriously.

Edit: mutually assured destruction or gin. Sounds good.

Edited by MrBrightSi on Friday 26th June 11:25

ATG

20,485 posts

271 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Colonel Armchair Bufton Tufton here. Fighting on some 3rd party's turf, Russian conventional kit skittled, couldn't maintain supply lines, morale collapses. Triggers a coup in Moscow either followed by a nuclear strike or peace in our time with vodka and cake for everyone. Best avoided. Mine's a pink gin.

superkartracer

8,959 posts

221 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Rogue86 said:
In pure technological terms and provided they're not reinforced by the likes of China, I don't think we have a great deal to worry about. The Russians have a lot of troops, but the majority of their equipment is dated and/or unserviceable.

It would be interesting (/terrifying obviously) to see how a modern conflict between Nations would pan out given how warfare has advanced over the last 75 years and whether civilians would be under threat as they once were and how forces like the ones we have today would be fielded into theatre. The only thing that hasn't really changed is that air supremacy is the key - something that the Russians couldn't really hope to contest with - particuarly with the US who have the numbers and the technology.
They now also have 5000? odd tactical Nukes , the west don't have many . They also think fair game to use these against a more powerful western none nuclear force ( men in tanks ) .

http://www.globalresearch.ca/russias-strategic-nuc...

Grim.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a301aa60-0dcf-11e5-aa7b-...



Edited by superkartracer on Friday 26th June 11:35

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
superkartracer said:
They now also have 3500 odd tactical Nukes , something the west don't have.
Not true. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_wea...

esxste

3,665 posts

105 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
It's difficult to know how far Putin will go. But I think he's building a long dictatorship for himself. Actual war with NATO would be incredibly stupid. A 2nd Cold War? That would benefit him, for a time.

Conventional warfare is done through proxy wars. You wont see the NATO and Russia squaring up directly. The cost is too high, the benefits too few.



AreOut

3,658 posts

160 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Rogue86 said:
In pure technological terms and provided they're not reinforced by the likes of China, I don't think we have a great deal to worry about. The Russians have a lot of troops, but the majority of their equipment is dated and/or unserviceable.
where did you get that info from? All their equipment in use is very serviceable. Dated certainly but then again US is still using some 60yo planes and ships etc.

Octoposse

2,152 posts

184 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
I spent much of the 1980’s in forests ‘somewhere in Germany’ looking Eastwards, expecting the Russians to come at any moment (OK, poetic licence – it was mainly swimming galas and cleaning stuff, but the overall point holds true). Being young and possibly even more stupid than the average ISIS recruit nowdays, we were mildly excited by the prospect – despite knowing full well we were utterly and completely fked if they did. If I recall correctly, the MILAN gunners got one practice shot a year, and our Nuclear/Biological/Chemical ‘proof’ APCs leaked like sieves in the rain.

I was slightly older/wiser when I had tiny bit-part walk-on parts in two itsy bitsy little wars. Probably got mild PTSD (never been diagnosed/treated, but manifests itself in nothing more onerous than the occasional sob sparked by obscure reminders).

Absolutely horrific beyond words. Not so much for the soldiers – although it can be pretty grim for some at times. But for those ‘unfortunate’ families, children, ordinary people, caught up in it all – horrific.

At bedtime, in his powder-blue attic room with pictures of Captain Barnacle and dinosaurs, my five year old snuggles up for re-assurance about swimming lessons, learning to ride a bike, an invitation (or not) to x’s party, the Lego Ninjago he’s seen in a shop window. The pit of horror and despair I’d feel in a cellar, feeling the vibration of artillery shells, wondering who’s dead out there in the smashed school, where the boy’s mum is, did that last mortar shell hit the bread queue where his grandmother is . . . distracting the child with talk of ‘what we’ll do next year’. And that’s mild compared with the situation multiplied several million times over in Syria, Ukraine, etc.

That’s why I want an ‘grown up’ and engaged relationship with Russia, not one that makes it appears that ‘games theory’ shapes our government’s actions as much as it does Greece’s hugely successful negotiations with its creditors, and where ordinary Ukrainians and others are expendible.

You couldn’t begin to measure the human misery that would flow from even the most limited of armed conflicts in populous Europe.

TheJimi

Original Poster:

24,860 posts

242 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
*really* good post, that yes

AJS-

15,366 posts

235 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Brilliant post!

Steve vRS

4,836 posts

240 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Octoposse said:
I spent much of the 1980’s in forests ‘somewhere in Germany’ looking Eastwards, expecting the Russians to come at any moment (OK, poetic licence – it was mainly swimming galas and cleaning stuff, but the overall point holds true). Being young and possibly even more stupid than the average ISIS recruit nowdays, we were mildly excited by the prospect – despite knowing full well we were utterly and completely fked if they did. If I recall correctly, the MILAN gunners got one practice shot a year, and our Nuclear/Biological/Chemical ‘proof’ APCs leaked like sieves in the rain.

I was slightly older/wiser when I had tiny bit-part walk-on parts in two itsy bitsy little wars. Probably got mild PTSD (never been diagnosed/treated, but manifests itself in nothing more onerous than the occasional sob sparked by obscure reminders).

Absolutely horrific beyond words. Not so much for the soldiers – although it can be pretty grim for some at times. But for those ‘unfortunate’ families, children, ordinary people, caught up in it all – horrific.

At bedtime, in his powder-blue attic room with pictures of Captain Barnacle and dinosaurs, my five year old snuggles up for re-assurance about swimming lessons, learning to ride a bike, an invitation (or not) to x’s party, the Lego Ninjago he’s seen in a shop window. The pit of horror and despair I’d feel in a cellar, feeling the vibration of artillery shells, wondering who’s dead out there in the smashed school, where the boy’s mum is, did that last mortar shell hit the bread queue where his grandmother is . . . distracting the child with talk of ‘what we’ll do next year’. And that’s mild compared with the situation multiplied several million times over in Syria, Ukraine, etc.

That’s why I want an ‘grown up’ and engaged relationship with Russia, not one that makes it appears that ‘games theory’ shapes our government’s actions as much as it does Greece’s hugely successful negotiations with its creditors, and where ordinary Ukrainians and others are expendible.

You couldn’t begin to measure the human misery that would flow from even the most limited of armed conflicts in populous Europe.
Can we send this to Putin and the NATO leaders?

MrBrightSi

2,912 posts

169 months

Friday 26th June 2015
quotequote all
Steve vRS said:
Octoposse said:
I spent much of the 1980’s in forests ‘somewhere in Germany’ looking Eastwards, expecting the Russians to come at any moment (OK, poetic licence – it was mainly swimming galas and cleaning stuff, but the overall point holds true). Being young and possibly even more stupid than the average ISIS recruit nowdays, we were mildly excited by the prospect – despite knowing full well we were utterly and completely fked if they did. If I recall correctly, the MILAN gunners got one practice shot a year, and our Nuclear/Biological/Chemical ‘proof’ APCs leaked like sieves in the rain.

I was slightly older/wiser when I had tiny bit-part walk-on parts in two itsy bitsy little wars. Probably got mild PTSD (never been diagnosed/treated, but manifests itself in nothing more onerous than the occasional sob sparked by obscure reminders).

Absolutely horrific beyond words. Not so much for the soldiers – although it can be pretty grim for some at times. But for those ‘unfortunate’ families, children, ordinary people, caught up in it all – horrific.

At bedtime, in his powder-blue attic room with pictures of Captain Barnacle and dinosaurs, my five year old snuggles up for re-assurance about swimming lessons, learning to ride a bike, an invitation (or not) to x’s party, the Lego Ninjago he’s seen in a shop window. The pit of horror and despair I’d feel in a cellar, feeling the vibration of artillery shells, wondering who’s dead out there in the smashed school, where the boy’s mum is, did that last mortar shell hit the bread queue where his grandmother is . . . distracting the child with talk of ‘what we’ll do next year’. And that’s mild compared with the situation multiplied several million times over in Syria, Ukraine, etc.

That’s why I want an ‘grown up’ and engaged relationship with Russia, not one that makes it appears that ‘games theory’ shapes our government’s actions as much as it does Greece’s hugely successful negotiations with its creditors, and where ordinary Ukrainians and others are expendible.

You couldn’t begin to measure the human misery that would flow from even the most limited of armed conflicts in populous Europe.
Can we send this to Putin and the NATO leaders?
+1 Im all for stupid replies about nukes, but octo hits it head on.

Maturity and seeing what war really entails is the only way to stop any clash in the future.