Terrible time to buy a house?

[grantone]

youngsyr said:

Let's not kid anyone though - the primary factor in every developer's thought process is profit margin.

What we need is a government led initiative to build a substantial amount of homes with a true focus on what's best for the country. The private sector developers will have to do the leg work, but it needs someone without a vested interest to oversee the project(s).

Really agree with this, if we can find the money & land for HS2 we can find it for new housing. If a government really wanted to it could facilitate the building of loads of houses, I can't work out why it's not happening. Doesn't have to be all big developer estate type housing either, stick a load of group self-build schemes in there like on the recent Grand Designs: Living in Suburbia TV show. Stick some standalone single plots in as well. A lot of green space isn't particularly beautiful or productive, so no great loss of amenity. Accept that some developers will make a lot of money and give up on 'affordable' housing, because building any type of house makes every other house more affordable anyway by taking a buyer out the market.

On topic, London who knows, rest of the country, mortgages are not as lax as they were in 2003-2007, so prices are likely not as vulnerable as then because they're more closely related to people's actual ability to pay these prices and service the mortgages.

[Ari]

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

[Justayellowbadge]

turbobloke said:

eliot said:

Thankyou4calling said:

As would I.

Bought a lovely two bed flat in Brockley SE4 in 1990 for £72,000. Sold it after the market had recovered in 2000 for ..........£72,000.

At any time between I was well into negative equity.

Same here, bought a 3b eot in 1989 for £60k, it went down to £40k early 90's and I finally sold it in 2000 for.....£60k
Now worth about £180k

My parents bought at the same time in yorkshire and price followed same pattern.

I'm sure quite a few people have been there. To make working in London less painful many years ago I bought a shoebox on Weylea Farm in Burpham (Guildford) and doubled my money when it was sold. I thought that was OK, but the last sale of that petit bijou residence (!) in 2013 quintupled the price I paid with £210k changing hands for a 1-bed eot. Now valued at ~£250k, exceeding x6. However, real life happened in the interim with needs of its own!

Not examples of terrible times to buy, but certainly examples of unfortunate times to sell

[youngsyr]

grantone said:

youngsyr said:

Let's not kid anyone though - the primary factor in every developer's thought process is profit margin.

What we need is a government led initiative to build a substantial amount of homes with a true focus on what's best for the country. The private sector developers will have to do the leg work, but it needs someone without a vested interest to oversee the project(s).

Really agree with this, if we can find the money & land for HS2 we can find it for new housing. If a government really wanted to it could facilitate the building of loads of houses, I can't work out why it's not happening. Doesn't have to be all big developer estate type housing either, stick a load of group self-build schemes in there like on the recent Grand Designs: Living in Suburbia TV show. Stick some standalone single plots in as well. A lot of green space isn't particularly beautiful or productive, so no great loss of amenity. Accept that some developers will make a lot of money and give up on 'affordable' housing, because building any type of house makes every other house more affordable anyway by taking a buyer out the market.

On topic, London who knows, rest of the country, mortgages are not as lax as they were in 2003-2007, so prices are likely not as vulnerable as then because they're more closely related to people's actual ability to pay these prices and service the mortgages.

Well, the government (both sides) can't even increase our airport capacity, so something as pioneering as this is way beyond their grasp.

[turbobloke]

Justayellowbadge said:

turbobloke said:

eliot said:

Thankyou4calling said:

As would I.

Bought a lovely two bed flat in Brockley SE4 in 1990 for £72,000. Sold it after the market had recovered in 2000 for ..........£72,000.

At any time between I was well into negative equity.

Same here, bought a 3b eot in 1989 for £60k, it went down to £40k early 90's and I finally sold it in 2000 for.....£60k
Now worth about £180k

My parents bought at the same time in yorkshire and price followed same pattern.

I'm sure quite a few people have been there. To make working in London less painful many years ago I bought a shoebox on Weylea Farm in Burpham (Guildford) and doubled my money when it was sold. I thought that was OK, but the last sale of that petit bijou residence (!) in 2013 quintupled the price I paid with £210k changing hands for a 1-bed eot. Now valued at ~£250k, exceeding x6. However, real life happened in the interim with needs of its own!

Not examples of terrible times to buy, but certainly examples of unfortunate times to sell

True enough. At the time, with two properties (neither BTL) and a family on the way, that 1-bed eot wasn't what the midwife ordered and had to go, but yes it would have been handy to keep it for a few more years. Well, decades.

[NRS]

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

Yes and no - if it's from a gut feeling as Welshbeef replied to then yes, but if someone is "convinced" the market will crash etc but they have lots of houses they aren't that convinced that their money follows what they believe. Same as people promising "x" company will be the next big thing on the stock market, yet don't buy them with their own money.

[Wills2]

Axionknight said:

Lying again Welshbeef?

Don't tell me you actually believe anything he says?

[berlintaxi]

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

It's Welshbeef, you would only be disappointed if it was anything other than bizarre.

[truck71]

Well, one of the countries biggest lenders is reporting as follows;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33770060

[turbobloke]

truck71 said:

Well, one of the countries biggest lenders is reporting as follows;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33770060

It'll be more of the same until the first rate rise then a bit less of the same. Source: crystal ball mk1.

[truck71]

turbobloke said:

It'll be more of the same until the first rate rise then a bit less of the same.

Pretty much I would guess. Can't see interest rates being allowed to damage the market.

[Ari]

NRS said:

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

Yes and no - if it's from a gut feeling as Welshbeef replied to then yes, but if someone is "convinced" the market will crash etc but they have lots of houses they aren't that convinced that their money follows what they believe. Same as people promising "x" company will be the next big thing on the stock market, yet don't buy them with their own money.

I appreciate that I might get chased off Pistonheads for admitting this, but some of us don't actually have multi million pound property portfolios.

[Ari]

berlintaxi said:

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

It's Welshbeef, you would only be disappointed if it was anything other than bizarre.

Good point, well made!

[Axionknight]

Wills2 said:

Axionknight said:

Lying again Welshbeef?

Don't tell me you actually believe anything he says?

I'm just jealous that his reggae duet with Rio Ferdinand got to number one in the charts, tbh.

[NRS]

Ari said:

I appreciate that I might get chased off Pistonheads for admitting this, but some of us don't actually have multi million pound property portfolios.

Ah, in that way yes, I'll avoid mentioning I only have a one house property portfolio (and that'd not even in the UK) then!

[Welshbeef]

NRS said:

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

Yes and no - if it's from a gut feeling as Welshbeef replied to then yes, but if someone is "convinced" the market will crash etc but they have lots of houses they aren't that convinced that their money follows what they believe. Same as people promising "x" company will be the next big thing on the stock market, yet don't buy them with their own money.

Exactly - it's all well and good preaching doom and gloom (while actually being on the merry go round) and maybe convincing some to not get on and then don't really believe what they say so don't sell up.



If you were convinced the market was really overheating in 2006/7 why not sell all bank shares and invest in betting that the prices fall hard. Not doing something you tryely believe following logical reasoned analysis means your simply following average Joe vs taking a risk and backing yourself.

So for me - I don't believe they will fall nor have I so am not selling any and/have been actively looking for additions. My view is long term it's only going one way plus I really like leveraged returns.

Conversely I'm pretty reluctant to pull the trigger on a classic car even though I really do want one as I view it too much of a bubble for my risk profile and at the end of the day they are not necessary they are a luxery hobby which when things go wrong all those buyers vanish.

[Mobile Chicane]

Does anyone absolutely have to buy?

Provided no dependents you could preserve the capital you'd otherwise have spent on a deposit and rent long term. Depending on the landlord of course.

I'm paying £15k a year for my house (chocolate box Surrey village), and I can stay in it until I die.

It's easily worth £550k on the open market, which if I lived until age 80 I wouldn't be able to pay off, even if I were able to raise that amount of mortgage finance, nor is it economically viable to do so.

Happy dies.

[Neil H]

Mobile Chicane said:

Does anyone absolutely have to buy?

Provided no dependents you could preserve the capital you'd otherwise have spent on a deposit and rent long term. Depending on the landlord of course.

I'm paying £15k a year for my house (chocolate box Surrey village), and I can stay in it until I die.

It's easily worth £550k on the open market, which if I lived until age 80 I wouldn't be able to pay off, even if I were able to raise that amount of mortgage finance, nor is it economically viable to do so.

Happy dies.

Renting long term is financial suicide IMHO. That 15k a year is going nowhere - you are actually spending the money - whereas a mortgage is paying off an asset that you will eventually own outright. You’re right in that 15k a year will probably not get you into a 550k house unless you have a large deposit, but that’s why you have to work your way up the ladder. What you’re effectively doing is paying the same amount that the interest would be on a mortgage for the house, but not taking advantage of the capital appreciation.

If you can still afford 15k a year rent when you are 80 then it’s no problem, but most people will be far from being able to afford that kind of rent on a pension.

[Ari]

Welshbeef said:

NRS said:

Ari said:

Welshbeef said:

If that's your belief have you sold up all real estate and now renting and ready to pounce on the much lower prices a bloodbath would create? If not you don't really believe it do you.

Utterly bizarre logic!

Yes and no - if it's from a gut feeling as Welshbeef replied to then yes, but if someone is "convinced" the market will crash etc but they have lots of houses they aren't that convinced that their money follows what they believe. Same as people promising "x" company will be the next big thing on the stock market, yet don't buy them with their own money.

Exactly - it's all well and good preaching doom and gloom (while actually being on the merry go round) and maybe convincing some to not get on and then don't really believe what they say so don't sell up.



If you were convinced the market was really overheating in 2006/7 why not sell all bank shares and invest in betting that the prices fall hard. Not doing something you tryely believe following logical reasoned analysis means your simply following average Joe vs taking a risk and backing yourself.

So for me - I don't believe they will fall nor have I so am not selling any and/have been actively looking for additions. My view is long term it's only going one way plus I really like leveraged returns.

Conversely I'm pretty reluctant to pull the trigger on a classic car even though I really do want one as I view it too much of a bubble for my risk profile and at the end of the day they are not necessary they are a luxery hobby which when things go wrong all those buyers vanish.

Prepare to have your mind blown, but as previously mentioned, some of us don't have huge property empires, some of us just own houses that we (brace yourself...) live in quite happily.

Crazy world huh?

[gibbon]

Welshbeef said:

So for me - I don't believe they will fall nor have I so am not selling any and/have been actively looking for additions. My view is long term it's only going one way plus I really like leveraged returns.

You wont like leveraged returns on properties so much once the tax relief on the mortgage ends.