Junior Doctor's contracts petition
Discussion
Do we really have people popping over from ACAS to update PH on the latest contract negotiation fine print? Sir David won't be pleased. Saying 'more hours' or 'less hours' has an approximately 50:50 chance of being correct depending on whether any bias is present. Dalton looks like the kind of chap who could sort this, good luck to him.
turbobloke said:
Do we really have people popping over from ACAS to update PH on the latest contract negotiation fine print? Sir David won't be pleased. Saying 'more hours' or 'less hours' has an approximately 50:50 chance of being correct depending on whether any bias is present. Dalton looks like the kind of chap who could sort this, good luck to him.
Oh yeshttp://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and...
968 said:
turbobloke said:
Do we really have people popping over from ACAS to update PH on the latest contract negotiation fine print? Sir David won't be pleased. Saying 'more hours' or 'less hours' has an approximately 50:50 chance of being correct depending on whether any bias is present. Dalton looks like the kind of chap who could sort this, good luck to him.
Oh yeshttp://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and...
turbobloke said:
Do we really have people popping over from ACAS to update PH on the latest contract negotiation fine print? Sir David won't be pleased. Saying 'more hours' or 'less hours' has an approximately 50:50 chance of being correct depending on whether any bias is present. Dalton looks like the kind of chap who could sort this, good luck to him.
Given its the DoH And SoS who are releasing these details, it demonstrates how poorly they are dealing with this dispute. Hunt claims 15/16 issues resolved, the BMA says areas of contention identified, no solution offered by the DoH.968 said:
turbobloke said:
Do we really have people popping over from ACAS to update PH on the latest contract negotiation fine print? Sir David won't be pleased. Saying 'more hours' or 'less hours' has an approximately 50:50 chance of being correct depending on whether any bias is present. Dalton looks like the kind of chap who could sort this, good luck to him.
Given its the DoH And SoS who are releasing these details, it demonstrates how poorly they are dealing with this dispute.968 said:
Hunt claims 15/16 issues resolved, the BMA says areas of contention identified, no solution offered by the DoH.
There's lots of this 
from both sides. Whether the amount of spin from both sides is equal is another matter.turbobloke said:
There's lots of this from both sides. Whether the amount of spin from both sides is equal is another matter.
The BMA haven't briefed about negotiations and the BMA aren't deliberately misquoting statistics about death rates to support their argument. I'm no fan of the BMA and only was persuaded to rejoined after becoming a consultant for their assistance in job planning disputes. I gave up membership after the MTAS debacle as that was a bridge too far after years of working exploitative contracts unchallenged by people like that stooge you quoted the other day (who was immediately corrected and reminded of the reality of working in the NHS by his daughter no less.) from both sides. Whether the amount of spin from both sides is equal is another matter.968 said:
turbobloke said:
There's lots of this from both sides. Whether the amount of spin from both sides is equal is another matter.
The BMA haven't briefed about negotiations and the BMA aren't deliberately misquoting statistics about death rates to support their argument. I'm no fan of the BMA and only was persuaded to rejoined after becoming a consultant for their assistance in job planning disputes. I gave up membership after the MTAS debacle as that was a bridge too far after years of working exploitative contracts unchallenged by people like that stooge you quoted the other day (who was immediately corrected and reminded of the reality of working in the NHS by his daughter no less.) from both sides. Whether the amount of spin from both sides is equal is another matter.
that the FB page was indeed exactly as described. Neither side is looking
at the moment.turbobloke said:
Fair enough to all of that, but the JD Facebook fiasco showed that the BMA side isn't immune from spin by any means. I remember that you disputed its existence based on the secondary source, which frankly didn't make sense when the primary source had already confirmed it, and you may repeat that - either way it remains relevant here. BTW I'm willing to bet you a shilling on the side that the FB page was indeed exactly as described.
Neither side is looking at the moment.
The Facebook 'fiasco' as you called it is a total non story that I doubt the veracity of. Firstly they've said nothing earth shattering there , they commented that strikes could be a PR disaster, no s that the FB page was indeed exactly as described. Neither side is looking
at the moment.
t, that in November they weren't clear of the scale of pay cut that they'd suffer because the DoH made their 'calculator' impossible to use but subsequently has become clearer. What the BMA have not done is deliberately lie by using incorrect statistics to create fear in the public about weekend deaths, which has nothing to do with this dispute and will not be affected however the JD contract negotiations pan out. Hunts lies have been so damaging in fact that has resulted in morbidity and mortality as he has knowingly mislead the public. Whatever the BMA has done (in your eyes only) they haven't resulted in patient mortality.968 said:
turbobloke said:
Fair enough to all of that, but the JD Facebook fiasco showed that the BMA side isn't immune from spin by any means. I remember that you disputed its existence based on the secondary source, which frankly didn't make sense when the primary source had already confirmed it, and you may repeat that - either way it remains relevant here. BTW I'm willing to bet you a shilling on the side that the FB page was indeed exactly as described.
Neither side is looking at the moment.
The Facebook 'fiasco' as you called it is a total non story that I doubt the veracity of. that the FB page was indeed exactly as described. Neither side is looking
at the moment.
Surely as a medic you should be into evidence-based opinions rather than the type of fantasy you are in fact peddling over the reality of that Facebook page, which has niceties like the suggestion to make up lost pay via crem form 'Ash Cash' and the need to provide emergency care initially for PR purposes.
968 said:
Hunts lies have been so damaging in fact that has resulted in morbidity and mortality as he has knowingly mislead the public. Whatever the BMA has done (in your eyes only) they haven't resulted in patient mortality.
If so, the word 'yet' might be in order.In the hurly-burly of this busy thread it's easy to miss a lie or two. What are Hunt's lethally damaging lies, exactly? Evidence is needed on all counts not mere opinion.
Not including the disputed statement over stroke patient care as that's recent enough to remember.
turbobloke said:
I said that already in the post you replied to, but the basis for your doubt is as thin as the ice on my car. One of the Junior Doctors posting on the page that you think is fantasy has already stood by her words. So that'll be a Junior Doctor standing ny words not posted on a page that doesn't exist
No she hasn't actually. She has said that the her comments (about rate of pay) had even taken out of context by the mail who've selectively misquoted her. turdobloke said:
Surely as a medic you should be into evidence-based opinions rather than the type of fantasy you are in fact peddling over the reality of that Facebook page, which has niceties like the suggestion to make up lost pay via crem form 'Ash Cash' and the need to provide emergency care initially for PR purposes.
Yes evidence base, interesting that you use that term but have been happily quoting Hunts misuse of that evidence to support your non argument. The ash cash comment has not been confirmed or denied by anyone. If it was true then they are idiotic for thinking that would be appropriate and given the majority of juniors don't get crem fees it would be nonsensical, of course it sounds terribly emotive so perhaps the mail just slipped that in.Turdobloke said:
In the hurly-burly of this busy thread it's easy to miss a lie or two. What are Hunt's lethally damaging lies, exactly? Evidence is needed on all counts not mere opinion.
Not including the disputed statement over stroke patient care as that's recent enough to remember.
It's only easy to miss what you haven't read or been bothered to read. Hunt has misled the public over weekend mortality and stroke deaths. His lies have, themselves resulted in at least deaths. That's about as serious as it comes.Not including the disputed statement over stroke patient care as that's recent enough to remember.
http://www.bmj.com/content/351/bmj.h4596/rr-52
"Weekend mortality statistics
The Government claim there is a 16% higher chance of dying if admitted to hospital at the weekend – this is misleading [1]. The actual data show there is a 16% increase in absolute risk of death if admitted on a Sunday instead of on a Wednesday. The figure for Saturday is 11% [2].
That is an absolute risk reduction on an absolute risk of death of 1.32%. Thus the risk of death is increased from 1.32% to 1.53%. The authors of the original study did not describe how the severity of patients’ illnesses were taken into account, potentially seriously confounding the results.
The figures above demonstrate an association but do not explain the cause.
There are likely to be many reasons for this difference in mortality, but these have not been fully explored. They may well include the fact that patients probably present with more advanced illness and so are more unwell at the weekend, though clearly more study is merited [3].
In fact the original study found that in patients who were already in hospital, the chances of dying on a Sunday were 8% less than a mid-week day. Ironically, they are more likely to be on longer stay wards and therefore much less likely to see weekend consultants than those newly admitted to acute care. Besides all that, using mortality is not an effective marker of care quality [4]."
References
1.McCartney M. The zombie statistic behind the push for seven day working. BMJ 2015;351:h3575
2.Freemantle N, Richardson M, Wood J, Ray D, Khosla S, Shahian D, Roche WR, Stephens I, Keogh B, Pagano B.
3.Weekend hospitalization and additional risk of death: An analysis of inpatient data. J R Soc Med. 2012;105:74-84
4.Mikulich O, Callaly E, Bennet K, O’Riordan D, Silke B. The increased mortality associated with a weekend admission is due to increased illness severity and altered case-mix. Acute Med. 2011;10(4):182-187
5.Hogah H, Zipfel R, Neuburger J, Hutchings A, Darzi A, Black N. Avoidability of hospital deaths and association with hospital-wide mortality ratios: retrospective case record review and regression analysis. BMJ 2015;351:h3239
Very good opinion article
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21676793-jer...
968 said:
turbobloke said:
I said that already in the post you replied to, but the basis for your doubt is as thin as the ice on my car. One of the Junior Doctors posting on the page that you think is fantasy has already stood by her words. So that'll be a Junior Doctor standing ny words not posted on a page that doesn't exist
No she hasn't actually. She has said that the her comments (about rate of pay) had even taken out of context by the mail who've selectively misquoted her. 
968 said:
Yes evidence base, interesting that you use that term but have been happily quoting Hunts misuse of that evidence to support your non argument.
Could you give an example? Surely that's the evidence thing. I've already said that both sides, including Hunt's, are spinning for all they're worth, and said clearly that Hunt would be unwise and wrong to use scaremongering over stroke patient care. And that a pay cut is not what I want to see in the outcome. You've been working overtime (not too long hours I trust) painting me as a Hunt stooge as per the former BMA Chief whose words touched a nerve with you, but it just won't wash as the evidence is against you and visible on this thread to everyone reading it.968 said:
The ash cash comment has not been confirmed or denied by anyone. If it was true then they are idiotic for thinking that would be appropriate and given the majority of juniors don't get crem fees it would be nonsensical, of course it sounds terribly emotive so perhaps the mail just slipped that in.
Yes that'll be it, slipped in about a page that's fantasy. It's the way you tell 'em.
968 said:
turbobloke said:
In the hurly-burly of this busy thread it's easy to miss a lie or two. What are Hunt's lethally damaging lies, exactly? Evidence is needed on all counts not mere opinion.
Not including the disputed statement over stroke patient care as that's recent enough to remember.
It's only easy to miss what you haven't read or been bothered to read.Not including the disputed statement over stroke patient care as that's recent enough to remember.
968 said:
Hunt has misled the public over weekend mortality and stroke deaths...
Thanks for the additional reading but can we hold it there for a mo, this will be the research wherer any conclusions needs more research, according to the researchers so how can it be used by either side? Also how is it that Hunt describing the research in a way that's favourable to his position has led to deaths (mortality in your posted words)?turbobloke said:
lots of disingenuous rubbish which detracts from any discussion
And that's where I'm leaving any discussion with you, it's clear you're not capable or deliberately unwilling to a) understand the issues beyond what you've swallowed from Hunt and b) refrain from engaging in any useful discussion about this topic. 968 said:
turbobloke said:
lots of disingenuous rubbish which detracts from any discussion
And that's where I'm leaving any discussion with you, it's clear you're not capable or deliberately unwilling to a) understand the issues beyond what you've swallowed from Hunt and b) refrain from engaging in any useful discussion about this topic. So long and thanks for all the
968 said:
turbobloke said:
lots of disingenuous rubbish which detracts from any discussion
And that's where I'm leaving any discussion with you, it's clear you're not capable or deliberately unwilling to a) understand the issues beyond what you've swallowed from Hunt and b) refrain from engaging in any useful discussion about this topic. 
Same again, and a record speedy return from flounceville.
The posts from vested interests who are, what, apparently junior or senior doctors. as seen of late are more and more like posts from junior school and at a push, senior school origins, though the latter would be more substantial.
Meanwhile reasonably close to back on topic, and dated today.
"In fact, the entire history of the NHS, as well as charting major clinical progress, can be seen as a standoff between doctors and politicians."
http://www.theguardian.com/society/video/2016/jan/...
Which, more or less, is where we appear to be today.
The posts from vested interests who are, what, apparently junior or senior doctors. as seen of late are more and more like posts from junior school and at a push, senior school origins, though the latter would be more substantial.
Meanwhile reasonably close to back on topic, and dated today.
"In fact, the entire history of the NHS, as well as charting major clinical progress, can be seen as a standoff between doctors and politicians."
http://www.theguardian.com/society/video/2016/jan/...
Which, more or less, is where we appear to be today.
Dixy said:
The 2 day strike has been called off, despite all HMGs bluster of we will impose the contract, has HMG realized that the Junior Doctors have the winning hand and that HMG must negotiate.
The last strike only went ahead because 1 of 16 points couldn't be agreed with regards to weekend pay so it would seem that HMG have been negotiating to have come to agreement on the other 15 points with the BMA. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff