Oldham West and Royton by-election

[Esseesse]

The Oldham West and Royton by-election is on the 3rd of December.

2015 GE result:

Labour - Michael Meacher - 23,630/54.8% (+9.3%)
UKIP - Francis Arbour - 8,892/20.6% (+17.4%)
Conservative - Kamran Ghafoor - 8,187/19.0% (-4.7%)
Liberal Democrat - Garth Harkness - 1,589/3.7% (-15.4%)
Green - Simeon Hart - 839/1.9% (+1.9%)

So it's a pretty massive Labour majority, but there's an outside chance of some upset. The postal vote deadline is 5pm today.

Anyone in this constituency?

[Axionknight]

Thankfully not, because Oldham is a dump.

Predicting a Labour win, but with a reduced majority personally.

[Johnnytheboy]

Axionknight said:

Thankfully not, because Oldham is a dump.

Predicting a Labour win, but with a reduced majority personally.

Yep, not down to an increase in the vote share of others, but a large decrease in turnout for Labour.

[Axionknight]

[ianrb]

I'm going to go with a big swing to UKIP. Call it the Corbyn effect.

[eatcustard]

Labour will win with around 19k votes (down from 23K)
UKIP second

I just cant see the loony left not winning the seat

[dandarez]

Labour Candidate is current leader of Oldham Council, but the rest of the candidate list completely changed from G. Election, inc the Tory and UKIP candidates.

One addition is Sir Oink A-Lot - no guessing which party. He might upset some of Oldham's residents.
Surprised they didn't have a candidate in the GE, but then they only do prominent elections.

[Halb]

Before I checked the wiki page I thought that was a reference to Pickle or someone of that ilk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royt...

The most interesting thing for me will be how well the UKiPs vote has survived.

[anonymous-user]

I reckon UKIP have had their (very brief) moment in the spotlight, but are now history. Will be interesting to see..

[DragsterRR]

I grew up there.
Put a red rosette on a dog turd and it would win.

[irocfan]

DragsterRR said:

Put a red rosette on a dog turd and it would win.

this ^^^

[Halb]

There are (OK, fewer now ) loads of 'safe seats', at one time they were in the vast majority. Recent changes in the environment has eroded the number somewhat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_seat#United_Kin...
2010
Conservatives 172 45.03%
Labour 165 43.19%

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/safe-seats
Safe seats in 2015

Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls. Find out whether you're in a safe seat here. If you'd like to have a look at all the information you can download it as a spreadsheet.

[Einion Yrth]

irocfan said:

DragsterRR said:

Put a red rosette on a dog turd and it would win.

this ^^^

Did last time, certainly.

[dandarez]

Interesting reading on the Labour candidate and his nice little allowance(s), even if it is via a Tory mouthpiece.

http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/20...

[Puggit]

Latest nationwide polling shows Labour could be holding on to Oldham by a fingernail:

Cons 42%
Lab 27%
UKIP 11%
LibDem 7%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

[Halb]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12...

[Esseesse]

Halb said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12...

indeed. As ever with these kinds of stories, comments disallowed.

[gruffalo]

Halb said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12...

No mention where the disaffected are likely to place their allegiance at this up coming election through.

UKIP could get their second seat here especially with Paris still in the memory.

[Axionknight]

A chap on another forum I frequent, who is a Labour Party member in the area has admitted that "apparently Labour internal data from knocking on doors in the are has UKIP ahead".

Obviously it's all conjecture and hear say but still:

[Esseesse]

An interesting post from an Oldham Labour campaigner

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...

Campaigner said:

...Conclusion labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.

Edit: Also I read in another post in a more general thread on Reddit that Labour are bussing in canvassers which is apparently a bad sign.

Edited by Esseesse on Monday 23 November 16:09