Oldham West and Royton by-election

[Scuffers]

JagLover said:

Axionknight said:

How many postal votes were cast? If the figure is less than Labours majority you are talking nonsense.

Less than Labour's majority so lets be clear labour would have always held this seat.

That is not the point, the margin of victory was, as it took momentum away from UKIP and enabled the Corbynites to say he has a mandate from the electorate.

End postal voting for anyone who is not too ill or disabled to make it to a voting booth and lets see how Labour do then in the Northern seats which have less of a Muslim presence.

7,115 postal votes cast from 27,795 total.

that's over 25% of the vote, realistically, that has to be fraud, (Postal votes were up by 15% from the GE vs. -44% in physical votes).

No, it did not change the result (less than Labours wining margin), but as said, that's not the point.

Edited by Scuffers on Friday 4th December 08:35

[turbobloke]

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

[jmorgan]

Oh, Corbyn is in now. Should I expect the night of the long knives soon?

[turbobloke]

jmorgan said:

Oh, Corbyn is in now. Should I expect the night of the long knives soon?

Corbynnacht...there are rumours from the tolerant Left about deselecting Labour MPs who supported the gov't on Syria in a free vote. Who knows what the real price of a free vote will be at individual MP level.

[powerstroke]

turbobloke said:

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

um looks like a win for labour at the next GE then !!! remember how many votes he got in the leadership election , our only hope is they get rid of him and have a plastic lefty like Burnam,
Corbyn chimes with most old school bitter spittle flecked mirror reading union type leftys and there are far more of them than the metropolitan guardian reading smoked salmon socailist types that don't like corbyn!!!

Edited by powerstroke on Friday 4th December 08:26

[turbobloke]

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

um looks like a win for labour at the next GE then !!!

Not much of a hope hence my comment but anything's possible in politics. The vocal support for Corbyn is from a core of shouty loony left nutters egging everyone else on when not egging delegates at a Tory conference or Labour MPs who vote the 'wrong' way.

[JagLover]

Lucas CAV said:

Ukip have their moment and that moment has passed. Farage has been virtually invisible since the ge.

Let me clear I don't vote UKIP, but Farage has been invisible since the GE since the MSM don't report on him.

Take away the postal vote and UKIP would have significantly increased their share of the vote in that seat, so hardly proof that their moment has passed. This is why the fraud mattered as politics is not all about who triumphs in a particularly seat, but shares of the votes, leading to momentum, to media coverage and increased donations.

[powerstroke]

turbobloke said:

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

um looks like a win for labour at the next GE then !!!

Not much of a hope hence my comment but anything's possible in politics. The vocal support for Corbyn is from a core of shouty loony left nutters egging everyone else on when not egging delegates at a Tory conference or Labour MPs who vote the 'wrong' way.

you assume labour voters want the same sort of things and lifesyle as say tory voters do!!!!
corbyn climes with the militant and the welfare sucking alike ...

[turbobloke]

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

um looks like a win for labour at the next GE then !!!

Not much of a hope hence my comment but anything's possible in politics. The vocal support for Corbyn is from a core of shouty loony left nutters egging everyone else on when not egging delegates at a Tory conference or Labour MPs who vote the 'wrong' way.

you assume labour voters want the same sort of things and lifesyle as say tory voters do!!!!
corbyn climes with the militant and the welfare sucking alike ...

Not at all, as it happens.

I'm assuming that the drop in support for Labour nationally when Corbyn was elected leader says more about the national picture than a local by-election in a Labour heartland.

I'm also assuming that the gobby hard-left core group of Corbynites doesn't reflect broader Labour opinion or indeed voting intentions - defections or political cleavage are both still realistic possibilities - and that the next GE result will reflect both of the above points.

I should add that mention of political cleavage involved use of a technical term and was not in any way a reference to Corbyn's ex aka the Abbottopotamus.

[BigMon]

I grew up in the people's republic of South Yorkshire in the 80's so you can guess how I feel about the Tories.

However, the chances of me voting for a Labour party with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm are the same as Elvis crash landing a UFO on top of the Loch Ness monster.

[powerstroke]

turbobloke said:

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

powerstroke said:

turbobloke said:

Great news, Labour keep Oldham so Labour more likely to keep Corbyn.

um looks like a win for labour at the next GE then !!!

Not much of a hope hence my comment but anything's possible in politics. The vocal support for Corbyn is from a core of shouty loony left nutters egging everyone else on when not egging delegates at a Tory conference or Labour MPs who vote the 'wrong' way.

you assume labour voters want the same sort of things and lifesyle as say tory voters do!!!!
corbyn climes with the militant and the welfare sucking alike ...

Not at all, as it happens.

I'm assuming that the drop in support for Labour nationally when Corbyn was elected leader says more about the national picture than a local by-election in a Labour heartland.

I'm also assuming that the gobby hard-left core group of Corbynites doesn't reflect broader Labour opinion or indeed voting intentions - defections or political cleavage are both still realistic possibilities - and that the next GE result will reflect both of the above points.

I should add that mention of political cleavage involved use of a technical term and was not in any way a reference to Corbyn's ex aka the Abbottopotamus.

Hey I hope you are right and corbyn as leader ruins their chances , I just see he is very popular with joe average labour voter!!!

[rscott]

JagLover said:

Lucas CAV said:

Ukip have their moment and that moment has passed. Farage has been virtually invisible since the ge.

Let me clear I don't vote UKIP, but Farage has been invisible since the GE since the MSM don't report on him.

Take away the postal vote and UKIP would have significantly increased their share of the vote in that seat, so hardly proof that their moment has passed. This is why the fraud mattered as politics is not all about who triumphs in a particularly seat, but shares of the votes, leading to momentum, to media coverage and increased donations.

So you're saying that of the 7,000 or so postal voters, none would have voted in person for Labour?

[AJS-]

But if Labour had done badly everyone would be saying it was a sign of Corbyn's poor leadership.

What could have happened is that the whole centre ground argument has been blown to pieces and Corbyn's lefty image has actually appealed to a set of voters who you might expect to stay home for a by election actually turned out to vote in greater numbers. Maybe they feel that Corbyn's Labour party offers a genuine choice rather than bland centrism.

[turbobloke]

powerstroke said:

Hey I hope you are right and corbyn as leader ruins their chances , I just see he is very popular with joe average labour voter!!!

I hope I'm right but the views I set out weren't based on hope, they were based on the drop in support for Labour nationally when Corbyn was elected. He's hardly covered himself in glory since then. The thing is, I'm really not convinced that he is very popular with joe average Labour vcter as opposed to the visible vocal hard-left Labour voter.

Such visibility may be giving a false impression...we know all about the Shy Tory, we may now be seeing the birth of the Shy Socialist given that Corbyn's team taunt and bully anyone not supporting their leader with shouts of 'Tory!' and this is aimed at lifelong Labour voters ffs.

As for Oldham, the vote took place after the resolution in parliament of an emotive issue that the far left and the pacifist left feel strongly about. By-elections don't typically get massive turnouts anyway but the -27% vote drop (vote, not share) compared to Meacher could well be more revealing than Corbyn supporters will portray.

[jmorgan]

Did Corbyn have an effect here or was this going to happen anyway?

[Scuffers]

rscott said:

So you're saying that of the 7,000 or so postal voters, none would have voted in person for Labour?

No, but conversely, it would appear that 90+% of them were Labour...

also, with a 44% reduction in physical votes, (typical for a by-election), Postal votes went up 15%.

That has to trigger alarm bells....

[DragsterRR]

I lived in Oldham for the first 35 years of my life.
Always been a tory. Never bothered to vote there.
The way the wards are organised there isn't a hope in hell of anyone other than labour winning.

Plus, Coldhurst, Westwood, Glodwick are only ever going to vote one way no matter what happens politically.

[Derek Smith]

DragsterRR said:

I lived in Oldham for the first 35 years of my life.
Always been a tory. Never bothered to vote there.
The way the wards are organised there isn't a hope in hell of anyone other than labour winning.

Plus, Coldhurst, Westwood, Glodwick are only ever going to vote one way no matter what happens politically.

I live in one of the nation's safest tory seats. I've voted for all main parties in my life and a couple of independents, but our sitting MP is an oaf. Indeed sitting is what he does best it seems, any action is an anathema. Everyone moans about him, everyone votes for him.

I've an American friend who ranted that the border of her constituency had been moved to ensure that it was a safe seat for democrats. This would appear to be deliberate policy. She's not too clear on the subject, any discussion turning into a diatribe, but it does seem that for vast numbers of the US population, voting is pointless. They just don't have marginals.

Very odd.

[turbobloke]

DragsterRR said:

I lived in Oldham for the first 35 years of my life.
Always been a tory. Never bothered to vote there.
The way the wards are organised there isn't a hope in hell of anyone other than labour winning.

Plus, Coldhurst, Westwood, Glodwick are only ever going to vote one way no matter what happens politically.

Good points which reminded me that at national level the MP/Constituency/Boundary changes proposed by the Conservatives are now likely to go ahead after winning a vote in the Lords, and this levelling of the playing field will add to the national drop in Labour support to reduce any existing chance that Corbyn's Labour Party had of getting anywhere in 2020. On a positive note, Osborne has steered the economy well over the past 6 years. There's no reason for this not to continue and more people over time will appreciate it.

[richardxjr]

Excellent result, keeps the entertainment going for sure. UKIP's [even more] finished now. Getting the referendum's all they needed to do.