Oldham West and Royton by-election
Discussion
richardxjr said:
Excellent result, keeps the entertainment going for sure. UKIP's [even more] finished now. Getting the referendum's all they needed to do.
UKIP got more than double the votes of the Conservatives are they finished?. Never in a million years would they win this by-election that was never going to happen. Interesting to see what happens about the Postal vote claims.Having a local man win has to be a good thing and he seems like a decent bloke too.
johnxjsc1985 said:
UKIP got more than double the votes of the Conservatives are they finished?. Never in a million years would they win this by-election that was never going to happen.
Agreed. My guess is that there were also some anti-Corbyn voters in there as well who may return to the fold at the next GE. johnxjsc1985 said:
Interesting to see what happens about the Postal vote claims.
Sweet foxtrot alpha is my guess... the main people who seem to be harping on about it are disgruntled Kippers clutching at straws. Lots of people (including myself) use postal voting legitimately because it's easier. Given the feverish frothing and anticipation prior to yesterday I'm not surprised Kippers are disappointed (yet again) but isn't it time to face some facts - such as "Not enough people like your Leader or his policies" rather than the continuous "It's NOT FAIR!!!" whinging?johnxjsc1985 said:
Having a local man win has to be a good thing and he seems like a decent bloke too.
Edited by Countdown on Friday 4th December 10:28
Some top quality fantasy/wishful thinking in this thread. Well done chaps:
Anyway, then come the cries of "foul!":
k 'em. In fact, wheel them over to the incinerator; PS - Muslims are all cheats), is this:
ianrb said:
I'm going to go with a big swing to UKIP. Call it the Corbyn effect.
Puggit said:
Latest nationwide polling shows Labour could be holding on to Oldham by a fingernail:
Cons 42%
Lab 27%
UKIP 11%
LibDem 7%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Cons 42%
Lab 27%
UKIP 11%
LibDem 7%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
gruffalo said:
No mention where the disaffected are likely to place their allegiance at this up coming election through.
UKIP could get their second seat here especially with Paris still in the memory.
UKIP could get their second seat here especially with Paris still in the memory.
Esseesse said:
steveT350C said:
It's going to be close...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-far...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-far...
steveT350C said:
Opinion polls? Remember those during General Election?
It's going to be close!
It's going to be close!
Smollet said:
I wonder how much the turnout will be down from the GE. Labour to scrape in by about 1k would be my guess.
Esseesse said:
Lord Ashcroft: Based on Ladbrokes' latest odds, here is their updated projection for Thursday's Oldham West & Royton by-election.
Labour 41%, UKIP 38%, Cons 14%, LD 6%.
Labour 41%, UKIP 38%, Cons 14%, LD 6%.
steveT350C said:
@RaheemKassam: UKIP sources are optimistic but cautious about #OldhamWest. They reckon there's fewer than 1000 votes in it.
Has no one worked out yet that Ashcroft's so-called "polls" are done to achieve one thing, which is to put Ashcroft's polling company on the front page of the newspapers?Anyway, then come the cries of "foul!":
Halb said:
Paul Nuttalls - " POSTAL vote postal vote postal vote!!!!"
dandarez said:
Nuttall making strong points about the postal voting. Up 15% on day one. Affront to democracy, huge number voted by post a week before election.
Scuffers said:
At what point do they have to investigate these postal frauds?
JagLover said:
Just heard N Farage on Radio 4. Sounds like there has been the usual shenanigans involved with the postal vote we have come to expect from Jezbollahs core constituency.
But my personal favourite, which refers to UKIP's "momentum" [sic] (HTF does a tombstone have momentum? Never mind) and has the faint whiff of eugenics and racism about it (the ill and the disabled - fk 'em. In fact, wheel them over to the incinerator; PS - Muslims are all cheats), is this: JagLover said:
Less than Labour's majority so lets be clear labour would have always held this seat.
That is not the point, the margin of victory was, as it took momentum away from UKIP and enabled the Corbynites to say he has a mandate from the electorate.
End postal voting for anyone who is not too ill or disabled to make it to a voting booth and lets see how Labour do then in the Northern seats which have less of a Muslim presence.
That is not the point, the margin of victory was, as it took momentum away from UKIP and enabled the Corbynites to say he has a mandate from the electorate.
End postal voting for anyone who is not too ill or disabled to make it to a voting booth and lets see how Labour do then in the Northern seats which have less of a Muslim presence.
Countdown said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
Having a local man win has to be a good thing and he seems like a decent bloke too.
Instead he's now condemned to 5-10 years on the back-benches.
Things I ponder on from the result;
Labour smashed that win, was the media slanting the views hoping for a close run, or a change of seat?
UKiPs...not good, not really bad, too difficult to extrapolate if the UKiPs summer days are over just yet.
Torys...wow, I think that is the most interesting aspect, they just dissolved into the rain....and didn't go to UKiPs, they just stayed in, fed up with the war talk maybe?
Labour smashed that win, was the media slanting the views hoping for a close run, or a change of seat?
UKiPs...not good, not really bad, too difficult to extrapolate if the UKiPs summer days are over just yet.
Torys...wow, I think that is the most interesting aspect, they just dissolved into the rain....and didn't go to UKiPs, they just stayed in, fed up with the war talk maybe?
Greg66 said:
But my personal favourite, which refers to UKIP's "momentum" [sic] (HTF does a tombstone have momentum? Never mind) and has the faint whiff of eugenics and racism about it (the ill and the disabled - fk 'em. In fact, wheel them over to the incinerator; PS - Muslims are all cheats), is this:
Yes clearly a comment saying we should end postal voting for all except the severely sick and disabled is calling for these people to be gassed.k 'em. In fact, wheel them over to the incinerator; PS - Muslims are all cheats), is this: It is not acceptable in a democracy for the authorities to turn a blind eye to electoral fraud and yes most of those involved in this are Muslim, take a look at Tower Hamlets.
I also like the convenience of postal voting but to help prevent the coercion of vulnerable members of the community, to outright fraud, we will have to go back to traipsing down to the voting booth for the very good reason that you don't have a "community leader" standing behind you in there when you cast your vote and we can better ensure that those eligible to vote are the ones doing the voting.
To turn a blind eye to this for party political reasons or that you find UKIP distasteful is a disgrace.
BOR said:
What a walk over.
Lots of egg on lots of hard-right faces today. How could you get it so wrong ?
to be fair, it's always going to be a Labour seat...Lots of egg on lots of hard-right faces today. How could you get it so wrong ?
However, the margin needs to be looked at, how can you have a reduction in physical votes (-44%) and in increase in postal votes (+15%) vs. the GE?
Yes, take out the postal's, and Labour would have still won, but the margins would then be more believable and your 'walk-over' would not be there.
and before anybody say's why bleat on about it now, read this:
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greate...
Scuffers said:
how can you have a reduction in physical votes (-44%) and in increase in postal votes (+15%) vs. the GE?
That doesn't strike me as at all surprising. You have people who vote, who have chosen a different method of voting. If you introduced online voting, I'd put money on physical voting going through the floor and online voting rocketing. Proves nothing. 
Scuffers said:
Yes, take out the postal's, and Labour would have still won, but the margins would then be more believable and your 'walk-over' would not be there.
Indeed. If the postal vote was very very skewed towards Labour, then the result on the day would have been close enough to fit with the expectations that people on the ground had.Will there be a postal vote for the EU referendum?
Quoting another post Greg66 said:
Whatever else, that's great news! Well done chaps and chapesses nationwide.
I think Farage has made a mistake in the way he's presented this. It sounds like whinging and sour grapes because without backing it up with facts thats all it is.
I use postal voting because I'm often overseas on election day, so I'm certainly not against the method, but the percentages of votes via postal votes should be broadly similar across the parties. If there is evidence that one party has had a particularly high turnout via that method of voting then it needs investigating.
Its easy for people to dismiss this as a UKIP whinge because its most affected them in Oldham, but it should matter to anyone who values honest politics. When Farage was threatened and assaulted during the election campaign and his family intimidated nothing was done by the other leaders or parties because it was someone they didn't like. Since then conservatives were intimidated and assaulted at their conference by intolerant elements and Labour MPs are being threatened and intimidated for their votes on Syria. Its nasty politics and needs to be stamped out.
UKIP's best policy would be to put the actual figures out there or to have said they wouldn't comment until the figures are available. I think the postal voting is ripe for corrupt practices and if theres evidence of this happening it should be of concern to everyone.
I use postal voting because I'm often overseas on election day, so I'm certainly not against the method, but the percentages of votes via postal votes should be broadly similar across the parties. If there is evidence that one party has had a particularly high turnout via that method of voting then it needs investigating.
Its easy for people to dismiss this as a UKIP whinge because its most affected them in Oldham, but it should matter to anyone who values honest politics. When Farage was threatened and assaulted during the election campaign and his family intimidated nothing was done by the other leaders or parties because it was someone they didn't like. Since then conservatives were intimidated and assaulted at their conference by intolerant elements and Labour MPs are being threatened and intimidated for their votes on Syria. Its nasty politics and needs to be stamped out.
UKIP's best policy would be to put the actual figures out there or to have said they wouldn't comment until the figures are available. I think the postal voting is ripe for corrupt practices and if theres evidence of this happening it should be of concern to everyone.
Edited by brenflys777 on Friday 4th December 11:28
brenflys777 said:
I think Farage has made a mistake in the way he's presented this. It sounds like whinging and sour grapes because without backing it up with facts thats all it is..
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-12-04/farage-to-make-formal-complaint-over-bent-by-election/more than whinging.
BOR said:
What a walk over.
Lots of egg on lots of hard-right faces today. How could you get it so wrong ?
Thank goodness I'm not hard right but centre right and that I didn't get anything wrong (I didn't predict anything anyway). What a relief. Phew.Lots of egg on lots of hard-right faces today. How could you get it so wrong ?
The good news for anyone wanting the country to prosper within its means is on ukpollingreport.
Reassuring data that Corbyn nuttery is still rejected and that the chances of Labour seeing office for many years remain very slim said:
But if public opinion is moving against intervention, there’s not a sign of it helping Jeremy Corbyn with the wider public, or hurting Conservative support. Corbyn’s own ratings are down – 24% of people now think he is doing well as leader, down from 30% last week; 65% think he is doing badly. Voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 30%, LDEM 6%, and UKIP 16%
Reasons to be cheerful, one-two-eleven.
DragsterRR said:
It's not so much the number of postal votes.
Its the areas that the vast majority of those postal votes come from.
Yes postal voting is legit. But not if someone else if filling your vote in for you because you aren't allowed out.
or in Tower Hamlets, fabricate at least 10 people into every flat in a block!Its the areas that the vast majority of those postal votes come from.
Yes postal voting is legit. But not if someone else if filling your vote in for you because you aren't allowed out.
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