Oldham West and Royton by-election

Oldham West and Royton by-election

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Discussion

Dog Star

16,079 posts

167 months

Monday 23rd November 2015
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Esseesse said:
An interesting post from an Oldham Labour campaigner smile

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...

Campaigner said:
...Conclusion labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.
Edit: Also I read in another post in a more general thread on Reddit that Labour are bussing in canvassers which is apparently a bad sign.
The point is that all this trendy leftie luvvie Islington crap is as out of touch with core Labour people in northern constituencies as "Eton Tory toffs"; blokes down the pub up here couldn't give a flying fk about gay marriage, equal rights, carbon footprints and so on. The other thing is that the last thing they want to see is someone who won't use military force or especially stand up to Islamics and wants some kind of "love in". There are two entirely different sets of Labour party it appears to me. Ukip appeals to these old "working class" Labour types and Conservatives at the same time.

The other thing to remember as well is that there's a large Asian population in Oldham and don't be surprised how many of them actually vote Conservative - same here in Rochdale. They're a core source of votes and actually are often the candidate - as was Rochdale's UKIP candidate in the GE.

Nevertheless I think Labour will hold the seat.



BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Monday 23rd November 2015
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On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.

These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.


Dog Star

16,079 posts

167 months

Monday 23rd November 2015
quotequote all
BlackLabel said:
On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.

These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.

The other issue is that Ukip and Conservative damage each other - I'd like to see those odds if there was no Conservative candidate.

Esseesse

Original Poster:

8,969 posts

207 months

Ridgemont

6,488 posts

130 months

Tuesday 24th November 2015
quotequote all
Dog Star said:
BlackLabel said:
On paper UKIP have a decent chance of causing a minor upset here however they are struggling financially if recent reports are true so can they even afford to fight this by-election effectively? Their national media presence is also significantly lower than it was during the 2 by-elections which they won last year.

These are the odds are betfair if anyone is interested.

The other issue is that Ukip and Conservative damage each other - I'd like to see those odds if there was no Conservative candidate.
I believe that local conservatives are directing voters to UKIP. Looks like there's a determined effort to lever Labour out.

Derek Smith

45,514 posts

247 months

Tuesday 24th November 2015
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If labour lose the seat, or even win with just a few votes, I reckon there will either be a concerted effort to unseat Corbyn, difficult I believe with the party rules, or a number of labour moderate mps jumping ship, either to start their own party, as they have done in the past, or to join with the liberals, which they have done in the past, more or less at the same time.

The mps will be looking to their income of course, as they mainly do and one of the safest seats in the country being/nearly lost will worry them.

A new labour lite might well take with it a number of financial backers to labour. Some have already jumped ship.

With the need to keep to the left removed due to the collapse of the Scottish labour party, there is a gap in the middle in England.

Scotland has turned into a one party state and that normally means there are vacancies.


steveT350C

6,728 posts

160 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Axionknight

8,505 posts

134 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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I will piss my pants if Labour lose this.

I seriously hope they do.

Derek Smith

45,514 posts

247 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"

That's an extra 42p.

Can't see it myself.


steveT350C

6,728 posts

160 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Derek Smith said:
steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"

That's an extra 42p.

Can't see it myself.

Opinion polls? Remember those during General Election?

It's going to be close! smile

dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Derek Smith said:
steveT350C said:
Labour with 45%? Don't think its that close.Mind you, according to Farage: "the contest was now so “close” that he would be throwing all the party’s available campaign resources at winning,"

That's an extra 42p.

Can't see it myself.
In the GE Labour's Meacher had over 4,000 votes 'more' than the combined total of all the other candidates standing.

Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!

Even I can't see it myself.

However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.


The Hypno-Toad

12,249 posts

204 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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I think Labour will still win this but it will be after many re-counts and by about 100 votes. I believe that if UKIP had the financial and media presence that they had in the run up to GE, they would probably win.
However if the polls are as out of wack as they were at the GE, who knows?

Thursday night could be very interesting.

Roy Lime

594 posts

131 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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There is not a cat in hell's chance of Labour losing the seat. The many homes of Michael Meacher business did nothing to harm his chances there.

They'll lose a few votes to UKIP but come Friay morning there will be no change.

hidetheelephants

23,772 posts

192 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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dandarez said:
In the GE Labour's Meacher had over 4,000 votes 'more' than the combined total of all the other candidates standing.

Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!

Even I can't see it myself.

However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
Meacher was a popular constituency MP; the new guy appears to be a troughing council arse; there's room for an upset with the Corbyn factor in play.

williamp

19,213 posts

272 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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I may be reading too much into this, but Comrade Corbyns office start rumours about how close this is when, in fact it is an easy labour seat...

...wo when they do win, its all down to corbyn, you see, strong leader, what the public want, you see..

Oh, and anyone who disagrees will be re-educated.

Smollet

10,465 posts

189 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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I wonder how much the turnout will be down from the GE. Labour to scrape in by about 1k would be my guess.

dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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hidetheelephants said:
dandarez said:
In the GE Labour's Meacher had over 4,000 votes 'more' than the combined total of all the other candidates standing.

Win a seat which Meacher had held for 45 years?
45 YEARS!!

Even I can't see it myself.

However, should UKIP win this, make no mistake, it will be a by-election victory of the most epic proportions.
Meacher was a popular constituency MP; the new guy appears to be a troughing council arse; there's room for an upset with the Corbyn factor in play.
I know all that. It was me who pointed out McMahon was a trougher.

After looking at his latest tweet page (wearing a Kipper purple tie to confuse) he's praising his activists all out in dreadful weather today, I'm thinking Farage could be grinning from ear to ear again on Thurs evening!

(WARNING! if you view McMahon tweets, one D. Abbot has been in Oldham today eek ).

https://twitter.com/CllrJimMcMahon?ref_src=twsrc%5...

dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Tweet from Labour candidate

Jim McMahon OBE ‏@CllrJimMcMahon · 3h3 hours ago

I want to thank everybody today who has campaigned in atrocious weather conditions, makes me so proud to be you're candidate in my home town

rolleyes

Johnnytheboy

24,498 posts

185 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Labour don't need to lose for this to be a disaster.

hidetheelephants

23,772 posts

192 months

Sunday 29th November 2015
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Johnnytheboy said:
Labour don't need to lose for this to be a disaster.
It would be funny though.