Oldham West and Royton by-election

[Pesty]

Interesting tweet from a guardian editor I believe


https://mobile.twitter.com/helenpidd/status/670267...

[DragsterRR]

Having grown up there, if they lose this by election I will show my arse on the town hall steps.

The fact they're worried about it is good enough

[Catweazle]

DragsterRR said:

Having grown up there, if they lose this by election I will show my arse on the town hall steps.

The fact they're worried about it is good enough

You may be held to this, custard proof required.

[The Hypno-Toad]

McDonnell has today stated that "UKIP are an evil force in our society,"

Brilliant. Well done you utter moron, now in the last few days UKIP canvassers can say on the doorstep,
"The Labour Shadow Chancellor quotes Mao, praises the PLO and the IRA & refuses to back attacking a terrorist group who wants to basically enslave us all and yet WE'RE EVIL???"

That'll be a few more voting for Mr Farage then.

[Pesty]

The Hypno-Toad said:

McDonnell has today stated that "UKIP are an evil force in our society,"

Brilliant. Well done you utter moron, now in the last few days UKIP canvassers can say on the doorstep,
"The Labour Shadow Chancellor quotes Mao, praises the PLO and the IRA & refuses to back attacking a terrorist group who wants to basically enslave us all and yet WE'RE EVIL???"

That'll be a few more voting for Mr Farage then.

Sorry but too many will agree with him.

[s2art]

Pesty said:

The Hypno-Toad said:

McDonnell has today stated that "UKIP are an evil force in our society,"

Brilliant. Well done you utter moron, now in the last few days UKIP canvassers can say on the doorstep,
"The Labour Shadow Chancellor quotes Mao, praises the PLO and the IRA & refuses to back attacking a terrorist group who wants to basically enslave us all and yet WE'RE EVIL???"

That'll be a few more voting for Mr Farage then.

Sorry but too many will agree with him.

Sadly, you may be right. The stupid is strong in Oldham.

[AJS-]

The interesting thing about the results at the last election is that there actually was a big (9.3%) swing to Labour. I would assume these votes will mostly evaporate due to lower turnout. If UKIP voters remain motivated and their 20% is solid then it's considerably smaller swing required to overturn the Labour majority. 12.5% away from Labour and 12.5% towards UKIP. They were 17.4% up at the GE. With a lower turnout it could come down to hundreds rather than thousands of votes. 8,200 Tory voters really have nothing to lose by ticking the UKIP box instead, and might see this as a useful wake up call to CMD for his nonsensical EU negotiations and his weak handling of the migrant crisis.

Highly doubt UKIP will actually win but if they can get within 2,000 votes it would be a brilliant result for them and a disaster for Labour.

[powerstroke]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

yep nail and head...

[Esseesse]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Pesty said:

Interesting tweet from a guardian editor I believe


https://mobile.twitter.com/helenpidd/status/670267...

Another tweet:

Just experienced that byelection hardy perennial: postal voters who have already voted but don't know for whom. Bloc vote much...

[Puggit]

Labour rally last night (according to Guido)

[Pesty]

looks like two white women have sat on the 'mens' side

[Esseesse]

Puggit said:

Labour rally last night (according to Guido)

http://order-order.com/2015/11/30/labour-hold-anot...

[Mr_B]

Harriet wasn't there with her pink girl power Barbie bus ?

[hidetheelephants]

Puggit said:

Labour rally last night (according to Guido)

Is that chap with the stripey tie facepalming or just camerashy?

[anonymous-user]

AJS- said:

The interesting thing about the results at the last election is that there actually was a big (9.3%) swing to Labour. I would assume these votes will mostly evaporate due to lower turnout. If UKIP voters remain motivated and their 20% is solid then it's considerably smaller swing required to overturn the Labour majority. 12.5% away from Labour and 12.5% towards UKIP. They were 17.4% up at the GE. With a lower turnout it could come down to hundreds rather than thousands of votes. 8,200 Tory voters really have nothing to lose by ticking the UKIP box instead, and might see this as a useful wake up call to CMD for his nonsensical EU negotiations and his weak handling of the migrant crisis.

Highly doubt UKIP will actually win but if they can get within 2,000 votes it would be a brilliant result for them and a disaster for Labour.

What weak handling of the migrant crisis?. Taking in the most needy (bypassing the traffickers) is the most sensible policy in the whole of Europe..

[Esseesse]

Lord Ashcroft: Based on Ladbrokes' latest odds, here is their updated projection for Thursday's Oldham West & Royton by-election.

Labour 41%, UKIP 38%, Cons 14%, LD 6%.

[Pesty]

Conservatives are mental if they don't vote ukip

[Halb]

Pesty said:

Conservatives are mental if they don't owe ukip

They should just withdraw.

[AJS-]

Jimboka said:

What weak handling of the migrant crisis?. Taking in the most needy (bypassing the traffickers) is the most sensible policy in the whole of Europe..

The weak handling that gave us record migration figures last week.

He talks a good talk and is less overtly destructive than Merckel, but the end result is the same. A vast influx of foreign people, many of whom will make no real contribution to anything and some of whom will simply be terrorists.

Having the most sensible policy in Europe is not much of a recommendation.

[Mr E]

Pesty said:

Conservatives are mental if they don't vote ukip

If labour lose the seat to ukip, Jeremy is likely toast. That means the opposition might actually get their house in order and be credible? Or simply implode with infighting?

So, were I a Tory voter in the constituency, my thoughts would be;
Vote ukip; always fun to give labour a bloody nose, and if it results in a credible opposition that's probably better for the political system and country as a whole.
Vote Tory; return a labour candidate, keep the opposition leader in charge and completely out of his depth for a while longer in the hopes of the opposition being completely unelectable come the next GE.

One supposes if the latter was your aim, you may as well vote labour and be done with it.