Brexit

[Bluebarge]

otolith said:

No, I'm saying that "ever closer union" is a ratchet. If the EU survives we will reach the federalist end point eventually, it is inevitable. It may take a long time.

It really isn't. It is just as likely that we end up with a 2 or 3 speed Europe, and two or 3 Eurozones. You want to make it seem inevitable to justify your decision to leave, but absolutely nothing is inevitable in this context. Like I said to another poster - read some other European papers and you will realise opinion is very split on Europe even within the engines of the EU - France and Germany, both of whose leaders are facing elections they are likely to lose very soon.

[Mrr T]

steveT350C said:

Mrr T said:

Scuffers said:

wolves_wanderer said:

Happy to be convinced either way as I am completely on the fence. I don't particularly believe claims that we would be signing free trade deals with all and sundry in the first week after exit but neither do I believe that we are doomed if we exit.

there is a view that running with no trade deal could actually be the better outcome....

I would agree however we would need a lot of agreements on mutual standard setting.

The problem of that option is of cause the financial service industry where every UK financial service company would need to create a regulated entity within the EU to continue to do business within the EU. I would estimate 20K-50K UK jobs would be lost.

Creating a regulatory entity would create jobs surely?

It would certainly create jobs in the EU and/or the EEA, however, it would I expect reduce jobs in the UK.

[Esseesse]

Bluebarge said:

otolith said:

No, I'm saying that "ever closer union" is a ratchet. If the EU survives we will reach the federalist end point eventually, it is inevitable. It may take a long time.

It really isn't. It is just as likely that we end up with a 2 or 3 speed Europe, and two or 3 Eurozones. You want to make it seem inevitable to justify your decision to leave, but absolutely nothing is inevitable in this context. Like I said to another poster - read some other European papers and you will realise opinion is very split on Europe even within the engines of the EU - France and Germany, both of whose leaders are facing elections they are likely to lose very soon.

Ever closer union or not, we're far too close already.

[otolith]

Bluebarge said:

otolith said:

No, I'm saying that "ever closer union" is a ratchet. If the EU survives we will reach the federalist end point eventually, it is inevitable. It may take a long time.

It really isn't. It is just as likely that we end up with a 2 or 3 speed Europe, and two or 3 Eurozones. You want to make it seem inevitable to justify your decision to leave, but absolutely nothing is inevitable in this context. Like I said to another poster - read some other European papers and you will realise opinion is very split on Europe even within the engines of the EU - France and Germany, both of whose leaders are facing elections they are likely to lose very soon.

I haven't said we should leave - actually my point is that you shouldn't base your decision to stay in on naivety or disingenuousness. If you want to stay, stay as a good European and a true believer in the project.

[danllama]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Remain in.

Quite apart from the economic logic for remaining part of the EU, an 'in' vote would pave the way to closer political union with the EU

Utterly bizarre.

[KrissKross]

Moominho said:

weren't being rational in the same way that some of the Brexit ones aren't.

Who is not being rational, most the of the Brexit people are passionate about this country doing well, and have probably spent far more time studying this than most as they are generally more interested. Is that not a good thing for all of us?

Those who want to remain generally have a vested interest or bias to remain for reasons I am really unable to fathom. Maybe they haven't travelled very much or don't understand much about the wider world, who knows?

[Bluebarge]

otolith said:

I haven't said we should leave - actually my point is that you shouldn't base your decision to stay in on naivety or disingenuousness.

Agree with you on this. I'm basing mine on hard pragmatism and what I believe will be best for the country, its future prosperity and the future of my kids. That all points resoundingly to a vote to stay.

Some of the Brexit camp seem to base their argument on misty-eyed nostalgia for a past independence that never existed, and a misunderstanding of how the EU actually works. They also engage in the kind of "we'll be fine" wishful thinking re a post-EU landscape that Salmond and Co were rightly derided for in the debate about Scottish independence.

[Esseesse]

danllama said:

ClaphamGT3 said:

Remain in.

Quite apart from the economic logic for remaining part of the EU, an 'in' vote would pave the way to closer political union with the EU

Utterly bizarre.

Utterly bizarre, every day we move towards being closer with the rest of the EU. Or do directives passing through the EU parliament somehow not affect us?

[don4l]

Bluebarge said:

But there are no facts and figures for what will happen following a Brexit - only conjecture, because we cannot know what trade deals the UK could negotiate with its partners other than that they are likely to be less favourable than now because we would have less bargaining power as a smaller market. However, the "mood music" as they say is negative, just as it was for the Scots if they went independent.

Scaremongering!

We would retake our place in the WTO, which has trade agreements covering most of the world.

The UK is the world's 5th largest economy. Iceland has a trade agreement with China. If the can do it, then so can we.

[Bluebarge]

KrissKross said:

I think some of you should try replacing the word "EU" with "Germany" and see if you feel any different at all?

I feel confused because that is a completely different question.

[steveT350C]

Mrr T said:

steveT350C said:

Mrr T said:

Scuffers said:

wolves_wanderer said:

Happy to be convinced either way as I am completely on the fence. I don't particularly believe claims that we would be signing free trade deals with all and sundry in the first week after exit but neither do I believe that we are doomed if we exit.

there is a view that running with no trade deal could actually be the better outcome....

I would agree however we would need a lot of agreements on mutual standard setting.

The problem of that option is of cause the financial service industry where every UK financial service company would need to create a regulated entity within the EU to continue to do business within the EU. I would estimate 20K-50K UK jobs would be lost.

Creating a regulatory entity would create jobs surely?

It would certainly create jobs in the EU and/or the EEA, however, it would I expect reduce jobs in the UK.

What specific jobs do you expect to be lost in the UK?

[Bluebarge]

don4l said:

Scaremongering!

We would retake our place in the WTO, which has trade agreements covering most of the world.

The UK is the world's 5th largest economy. Iceland has a trade agreement with China. If the can do it, then so can we.

None of those trade agreements are as good as the ones we have with the EU, or which can be negotiated on our behalf by the EU. A market of 500m consumers has more clout than one of 67m. Sorry, but them's the facts.

[Moominho]

KrissKross said:

Moominho said:

weren't being rational in the same way that some of the Brexit ones aren't.

Who is not being rational, most the of the Brexit people are passionate about this country doing well, and have probably spent far more time studying this than most as they are generally more interested. Is that not a good thing for all of us?

Those who want to remain generally have a vested interest or bias to remain for reasons I am really unable to fathom. Maybe they haven't travelled very much or don't understand much about the wider world, who knows?

You have proven my point. The Brexit people are much more likely to say something like your second paragraph. The reason I am (at the moment) opposed to the Brexit is due to bias, or my lack of travelling and understanding of the world. That's rational.

I'm not sure why this is the only thread you have ever commented on here, but you seem more likely to be biased than I do. As I have said before, I am undecided but currently leaning towards staying in. Arguments like yours will only steer people one way.

[KrissKross]

Moominho said:

but you seem more likely to be biased than I do. As I have said before, I am undecided but currently leaning towards staying in. Arguments like yours will only steer people one way.

I am sorry if you feel that way, its honestly not my intention and its clearly not always easy to have a detailed conversation on the internet.

I am not bias, I have just made my mind up. I don't feel its my job to make you feel one way or the other, although if I can answer any points you have I will always try my best to enter into a dialogue if you wish?

[Moominho]

KrissKross said:

I am sorry if you feel that way, its honestly not my intention and its clearly not always easy to have a detailed conversation on the internet.

It's a fair point, and I agree with you that it isn't always easy to have a discussion like this. As I said, I'm still willing to be persuaded either way. It's just for me, at the moment I feel that I can't see the benefit of leaving the EU, not from an economic standpoint anyway. I just don't like people saying (not you by the way) that it is somehow unpatriotic to not want to leave.

[anonymous-user]

otolith said:

Bluebarge said:

otolith said:

No, I'm saying that "ever closer union" is a ratchet. If the EU survives we will reach the federalist end point eventually, it is inevitable. It may take a long time.

It really isn't. It is just as likely that we end up with a 2 or 3 speed Europe, and two or 3 Eurozones. You want to make it seem inevitable to justify your decision to leave, but absolutely nothing is inevitable in this context. Like I said to another poster - read some other European papers and you will realise opinion is very split on Europe even within the engines of the EU - France and Germany, both of whose leaders are facing elections they are likely to lose very soon.

I haven't said we should leave - actually my point is that you shouldn't base your decision to stay in on naivety or disingenuousness. If you want to stay, stay as a good European and a true believer in the project.

IMO any 'good European' would vote to leave.

[don'tbesilly]

Nick Grant said:

Stay in. Exit is a move away from world peace

It's going really smoothly at the moment!

[anonymous-user]

Recent ineptitude & pure stupidity seem designed to encourage our exit. Our rational approach would be a great loss to EU.
If Germany got rid of the liability Merkel then perhaps some sensibility would return.
But as it stands, EU is a total shambles lead by an irrational leader.

[Scuffers]

don'tbesilly said:

Nick Grant said:

Stay in. Exit is a move away from world peace

It's going really smoothly at the moment!

yes, swimmingly!

[otolith]

REALIST123 said:

otolith said:

Bluebarge said:

otolith said:

No, I'm saying that "ever closer union" is a ratchet. If the EU survives we will reach the federalist end point eventually, it is inevitable. It may take a long time.

It really isn't. It is just as likely that we end up with a 2 or 3 speed Europe, and two or 3 Eurozones. You want to make it seem inevitable to justify your decision to leave, but absolutely nothing is inevitable in this context. Like I said to another poster - read some other European papers and you will realise opinion is very split on Europe even within the engines of the EU - France and Germany, both of whose leaders are facing elections they are likely to lose very soon.

I haven't said we should leave - actually my point is that you shouldn't base your decision to stay in on naivety or disingenuousness. If you want to stay, stay as a good European and a true believer in the project.

IMO any 'good European' would vote to leave.

You're using it in a different sense than I am - I mean "enthusiastic citizen of the European Union", not "person who lives on the continent of Europe".

I think as a nation we have to stop sitting on the fence. If we vote to stay in, we should do it properly, support the dissolution of nation states into a federal Europe, get on board with the idea that most important decisions about how we all live are decided collectively in Strasbourg/Brussels by the representatives of all 500 million people and that what we in the UK want is less important than what all of us in the EU want collectively. None of this picking and choosing and trying to block this or delay that or "we think we're a special case" or "we're not happy about the EU redistributing our wealth" or "we're not having however many migrants we're told" or "we're going to single handedly reform the EU". It can't be reformed, nobody else cares, it is what it is, take it or leave it. Have a referendum, choose to be positive and enthusiastic participants in the European project, or choose to get the fk out of it. We were sold something other than what it is and what it was always going to be. Now we know what it is, let's make an informed decision and stand by it.